Agriculture and rural development

Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets

Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets

Markets and prices
Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets

The Short-term outlook is based on reflections of market experts within the Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development of the European Commission, using the latest data available. It is published three times per year (in late winter, early summer and early autumn).

Latest issue (Spring 2018)

Short-term Outlook for EU agricultural markets in 2018 and 2019

EU balance sheets and production details by Member State

 

Highlights

  • 2017/2018 EU cereal harvest above average; ample global availabilities
  • Higher production boosts EU sugar exports
  • Increase in EU milk collection expected to weigh on the market
  • Small pig and poultry meat production recovery in 2018
  • EU beef production resumes declining trend

2017/2018 EU cereal production recovered compared to the previous harvest. A slight upward movement of world and EU prices is due to a continuous increase of demand for feed and industrial uses. EU oilseed availability is expected to increase, led by rapeseed production. 

In its first year without quotas, EU sugar production is at a high, and is expected to remain at this level in 2018/2019 despite low world and EU prices. Additional production is directed to exports as new destinations emerge.

The olive oil production recovered in 2017/2018, but EU producer prices remained relatively high until recently.

Milk collection grew significantly in the second half of 2017, driven by the milk price recovery. However, a sustained demand for dairy products might not be enough to keep market balance.

Beef production may resume its long-term downward trend in 2018, but exports could stabilise at record level (though representing only 6 % of production). Sheepmeat production and exports are expected to stabilise in 2018. An increasing breeding herd should drive up pigmeat production. In 2018, the poultry sector is expected to recover from the bird flu which affected both production and trade in 2017.

 

Related info

>> MARS Bulletins on crop monitoring and weather forecast (JRC-IES)

 

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