Agriculture and rural development

Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets

Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets

Markets and prices
Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets

The Short-term outlook is based on reflections of market experts within the Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development of the European Commission, using the latest data available. It is published three times per year (in late winter, early summer and early autumn).

Latest issue (Autumn 2017)

Short-term Outlook for EU agricultural markets in 2017 and 2018

EU balance sheets and production details by Member State

 

Highlights

  • EU cereal harvest just below average but ample global supply
  • Significant increase of EU sugar beet-planted area in this first year without quotas
  • Strong global and EU demand for dairy products and stable milk prices
  • High exports of beef and sheep, while lower pig and poultry supply causes a dip in exports and higher prices
  • Rise of the EUR against the USD to affect EU competitiveness on the world market

     

EU cereal production in 2017/2018 is expected to slightly recover from the low 2016/2017 season. However, it remains below average. Quality is very uneven. World and EU prices are not expected to rise in a context of ample global supplies. Oilseed production is expected to reach a high level mainly due to increasing yields.

Increased global sugar production in 2017/2018 will put additional pressure on already low world prices. With the end of sugar quotas, EU prices will become more exposed to world price volatility.

High olive oil prices due to the drop in production in the EU and globally in 2016/2017 led to a significant drop in consumption in the main EU-producing countries.

Market conditions in the dairy sector have been unprecedented with a record gap between very high butter prices and skimmed milk powder prices at intervention level. High demand for cheese, butter, cream and powders is supporting milk prices, and thanks to good forage, milk collection is expected to increase from last year.

High beef exports are helping to balance the increase in supply driven mainly by the dairy herd reduction. The growing production of pigmeat combined with falling exports could lead to lower prices. Poultry production and trade are expected to improve in the second half of 2017 after disruptions from bird flu. Sheepmeat exports on the rise.

 

Related info

>> MARS Bulletins on crop monitoring and weather forecast (JRC-IES)

 

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