Agriculture and rural development

Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets

Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets

Markets and prices
Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets

The Short-term outlook is based on reflections of market experts within the Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development of the European Commission, using the latest data available. It is published three times per year (in late winter, early summer and early autumn).

Latest issue (Autumn 2018)

Short-term Outlook for EU agricultural markets in 2018 and 2019 (Methodolgy)

EU balance sheets and production details by Member State

Highlights

  • Lower EU cereal production expected
  • An increase in EU milk production tempered by unfavourable weather conditions
  • Higher meat availability in the EU to drive a small rise in consumption

As a result of dry conditions in late spring in various regions, EU cereal production is estimated below average in 2018/2019. However, EU and global stocks are ample and despite strong global demand, it is premature to anticipate any significant rise of world prices. EU oilseed production will probably fall compared with last year’s bumper harvest.

With EU sugar production at a high, beet growers and sugar producers are confronted with low prices.

The lower than anticipated growth in EU milk collection, together with sustained EU and global demand for dairy products, will probably lead to higher milk prices in the second half of the year.

EU peaches and nectarines production is expected to decline compared with 2017’s (record) harvest. Similarly, a significant drop in EU tomato production is expected in 2018.

Weather conditions have so far been favourable to EU olive oil production, which is set to rise in 2018/2019.

A continued small increase in beef production and higher imports are expected to lead to a slightly higher utilisation of beef. Pigmeat supply grows while exports struggle to follow, keeping prices down. Poultry imports are down as Brazilian supply falls, sustaining rising prices as EU production increases.

 

Related info

>> MARS Bulletins on crop monitoring and weather forecast (JRC-IES)

 

Previous issues