Agriculture and rural development

Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets

Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets

Markets and prices
Short-term outlook for EU agricultural markets

The Short-term outlook is based on reflections of market experts within the Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development of the European Commission, using the latest data available. It is published three times per year (in late winter, early summer and early autumn).

Latest issue (Summer 2017)

Short-term Outlook for EU agricultural markets in 2017 and 2018

EU balance sheets and production details by Member State

 

Highlights

  • EU cereal production expected to be below average for a further year, in a context of ample global supply.
  • Significant increase of beet planted area in this first year without quota.
  • Modest milk production growth in the EU, in a context of sustained demand for dairy fat.
  • Good EU meat exports, but falling for pigmeat, owing to lower availability.

 

As a result of heatwaves and drought in various regions EU cereal production is likely to be slightly below average in 2017-2018 for the second year running, slowing down EU exports and tightening EU stocks. However, global supplies are expected to be ample, and world prices are not expected to rise significantly. Total oilseeds and protein crops production in the EU is expected to recover after 2 lower harvests. EU 2017/2018 white sugar production is forecast 20% above 2016-2017, mainly driven by an increase in planted area. This production level is only 3% above the 2014-2015 harvest.

Despite lower olive oil production in the EU and globally in 2016-2017, demand remains strong in non-producing countries, leading to high prices.

Milk production is expected to be higher than last year in the second half of 2017. The size of the increase will depend largely on weather and pasture conditions. A butter shortage, a strong cheese market and high SMP exports are the 3 main current features of the dairy market.

Good beef exports help to balance supply and demand on the domestic market. The dip in EU pigmeat production has pushed up prices and lowered exports. Poultry production and trade have resisted several episodes of bird flu (avian influenza) by diverting trade. EU sheep and goat production continues to rise, while meat exports are performing above expectations.

This report has been drawn up for the EU-28 under constant policy assumptions, with the Russian import ban assumed to be in place until the end of 2018.

 

Related info

>> MARS Bulletins on crop monitoring and weather forecast (JRC-IES)

 

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