The Short-term outlook is based on reflections of market experts within the Directorate General for Agriculture and Rural Development of the European Commission, using the latest data available. It is published three times per year (in late winter, early summer and early autumn).
Latest issue (Summer 2019)
The updated and refreshed short term outlook report, presented as more readable and user friendly, is available now.
- EU cereal production for 2019/2020 is expected to recover from last year’s low and reach 311 million t, if good weather conditions prevail until the end of the harvest. Total wheat production should increase by 10%, barley by 7% and maize by 0.5%. This ampler supply should allow EU cereal net trade balance to recuperate.
- Oilseeds production, forecast at 32.3 million t, is likely to further decrease in 2019/2020 due to the small EU rapeseed sowing area (-10% compared to average). In 2019/2020, EU protein crop production should recover from last year’s low to 5.1 million t.
- Sugar imports are forecast at a similar level as EU exports in 2018/2019. While the contraction in 2019/2020 sugar beet area is estimated at 4%, and under the assumption of a yield close to average, sugar production could reach 18.3 million t (4% above last year’s). The global sugar market is expected to return into deficit in 2019/2020.
- Large availability and lower prices continue to boost EU exports of olive oil in 2018/2019. The EU production expected for the next season is around average, driven mainly by a recovery in Italy and Greece, while in Spain production should be lower than in 2018/2019.
- EU production of peaches and nectarines could reach around 4.1 million t, an above average level, driven by favourable weather conditions. This level is expected to drive higher exports.
- Sustained demand for EU dairy products (EU exports are forecast 4% up in 2019) and favourable weather conditions are likely to support EU milk production growth (+1% in 2019). Global demand for SMP is high, public stocks are now empty and, by the end of the year, private stocks are expected back to low levels.
- EU beef exports are likely to increase significantly in 2019 (+15%) thanks to opportunities in existing and new markets. EU beef slaughterings are expected to decline in 2019 (-1.1%), following a reduction in cow herds and a low number of store cattle.
- The surge of pigmeat demand from China due to the spread of African Swine Fever will push EU exports (+12%) and prices up in 2019. Production will nevertheless remain stable in 2019, limited by a reduced breeding herd and environmental restrictions. Production growth should pick up in 2020 (+1.4%) as Chinese demand continues.
- Poultry production will keep growing in the EU in 2019 (+2.5%) thanks to good demand and high prices. These price levels will also favour import growth in 2019 (+5%).
- EU sheep meat gross production is expected to slightly recover in 2019 (+0.5%), thanks to favourable weather conditions in spring and a high number of ewes put to the ram.