This report presents the medium-term outlook for the major EU agricultural commodity markets and agricultural income to 2030, based on a set of coherent macroeconomic assumptions deemed most plausible at the time of the analysis. The projections assume a continuation of current agricultural and trade policies.
These assumptions imply relatively smooth market developments while in reality markets tend to be much more volatile. Therefore, the outlook is not a forecast. More precisely, the projections correspond to the average trend agricultural markets are expected to follow in a given macroeconomic environment were policies to remain unchanged.
EU Agricultural outlook for the agricultural markets and income 2018-2030 (06/12/2018)
- Proceedings of the October 2018 workshop "EU commodity market development: Medium-term agricultural outlook"
This report presents the medium-term outlook for the major EU agricultural commodity markets (arable crops, biofuels, meat, dairy products, olive oil, wine, peaches and nectarines, apples and tomatoes) and agricultural income to 2030, based on a set of coherent macroeconomic assumptions deemed most plausible at the time of the analysis. The projections assume a continuation of current agricultural and trade policies.
This analysis is based on information available at the end of September 2018 for agricultural production and on an agro-economic model used by the European Commission. It is accompanied by an uncertainty analysis quantifying potential variations of the results, stemming in particular from fluctuations in the macroeconomic environment and yields of the main crops. Specific scenarios are also envisaged for trade disputes, development of protein crops and food waste.
As part of the validation process, an external review of the baseline and the uncertainty scenarios was conducted at an outlook workshop in Brussels on 22-23 October 2018. Valuable input was collected from high-level policymakers, European and international modelling and market experts, private companies and other stakeholders, as well as international organisations such as the OECD, the FAO and the World Bank.
This European Commission publication is a joint effort between the Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development and the Joint Research Centre. Responsibility for the content rests with the Directorate-General for Agriculture and Rural Development. While every effort is made to provide a robust agricultural market and income outlook, strong uncertainties remain – hence the importance given to the uncertainty analysis. This publication does not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the European Commission.