Which factors will influence the future number of fatalities among older drivers?
Various factors can lead to an increase or reduction of the current number of fatalities among older drivers. These factors can be divided into autonomous factors and road safety measures. Examples of autonomous factors are the age composition of the population, the number of driving licence holders, and mobility. If these factors change in the course of time, they will influence the future number of fatalities among older drivers. Road safety measures can be taken to reduce the fatality rate of older drivers in the future.
Another factor that might influence the future number of fatalities among older drivers could be the transition of older drivers from a minority group with special needs and habits to one of the largest subgroups of drivers. This transition will probably affect the dynamics of the total traffic system, including the behaviour of other road users. The increasing probability of having to interact with an older driver may elicit profound changes in the behaviour of all drivers, as well as in patterns of interaction among the participants in the traffic system. As a result, the increasing participation of older drivers in traffic may lower the crash rates for older drivers .