The aim of this study is to allow the Commission to update the calibration and further operationalize the existing Labour Market Model. This model has been set up by external experts in order to improve the European Commission’s understanding of transmission mechanisms of labour market policies in the context of the European Employment Strategy. The Labour Market Model is used to provide a theoretical and empirical basis for identifying the possible direction and intensity of the effects of labour market policies. It uses actual economic data to estimate how an economy might react to changes in labour market policies or other policy reforms or external factor.
This paper is a joint effort by the OECD and the European Commission to make a first evaluation of the situation on refugees on the labour market. It is based on the 2014 EU Labour Force Survey. Available evidence confirms that refugees are one of the most vulnerable groups when it comes to labour market integration but show however, significant differences across European countries.
This study highlights the strong relation between unemployment, especially long-term unemployment, and poor self-perceived health. It shows that unemployment increased bad and very bad self-perceived health in European countries between 2004 and 2013. The longer the duration of unemployment, the stronger is the effect on self-perceived health. The study helps evaluate more comprehensively the impact of the crisis, (long-term) unemployment and inactivity on the health of individuals, thus showing that the labour market situation spills over into other important areas of public policy such as healthcare.
This paper examines the relation between unemployment and cardiovascular disease mortality in EU countries between 2000 and 2010. Two separate studies are summarized and highlight the increase in heart disease and stroke mortality rates as potential outcomes of the greatly extended unemployment rate during this period.
This report addresses the question of whether it is technically, financially and legally feasible to estimate geographic mobility and migration flows in the European Union. The study reviews state-of-the-art methods to measure stocks and flows of migrants using traditional data sources but also new and innovative data sources such as mobile phone data and social media data. It finds that it is indeed feasible to estimate geographic mobility and migration flows in the European Union but that that it depends on several important factors such as access to data, legal obstacles and desired outcomes that are outlined in the paper.
Since the eruption of the sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone, substantial efforts have been made to create a new form of governance for the Eurozone that will make the monetary union more robust in absorbing future economic and financial shocks. Much of the drive to adapt the governance of the Eurozone has been influenced by the traditional theory of optimal currency areas (OCA), which stresses the need for flexibility in product and labour markets. As a result, the Eurozone countries have been pushed towards structural reforms that aim to reduce the structural rigidities in product and labour markets. In this paper we ask whether this movement towards structural reform as part of the push for new governance is really going in the right direction. We will argue that this is not the case. The main reason is that the nature of the shocks that have hit the Eurozone does not correspond to the pattern of asymmetric shocks that has been identified by the OCA theory to require more flexibility. We will argue that what is needed in the Eurozone is not more structural reforms but a better mechanism capable of dealing with the classical boom and bust dynamics that are inherent to capitalism.
Success in raising employment levels and living standards in Europe depends on effective support policies as well as positive macro-economic strategies. In this respect, this year’s Employment and Social Developments review addresses a range of issues.
It starts by looking at the contribution of entrepreneurship and self-employment to job creation and growth and the need to tackle the difficulties faced by the self-employed and notably micro and small companies. It then looks at the role of labour legislation in supporting more and better jobs and the need to strike the right balance between flexibility and protection. It then moves on to look at the best actions to avoid unemployment turning into long-term unemployment and inactivity. More broadly, given technology change, globalisation and population ageing, which translates into a reduction in the working-age population, the EU needs to increase employment and increase productivity. Mobility and migration can play an important role here. In relation to this, Europe needs to improve skills and better match skills with evolving demands. It also needs to promote labour market participation of older workers and women. Social policies, including pension policies and family policies (for example, child care and long-term care), can support longer working lives and increase employment of women. Promoting social dialogue and the involvement of social partners in the development of employment and social policies may help the implementation and effectiveness of such policies.
The review is available in printed and electronic format in English. All the graphs and tables can be downloaded both in gif and excel format by accessing the individual chapters.
The economic recovery is firming up and levels of employment and unemployment are gradually recovering but remain respectively lower and higher than they were in 2008. Long-term, very long-term and youth unemployment remain high in many Member States, notably in those hardest hit by the crisis. In some countries, inequalities and poverty have also increased significantly. The impact of the crisis has differed widely across Member States, and differences across countries are larger than in 2008. Such divergences reflect not only the uneven impact of the crisis, but also the uneven capacity of Member State economies and institutions to absorb the shocks and limit their impact. Improving the economic and employment situation and restoring convergence will depend on improving the resilience of the EU economies, notably the most vulnerable economies, through a combination of higher investment, the implementation of labour market and social policies and the strengthening of social dialogue to enable the social partners to make an essential contribution to the recovery.
Self-employment and entrepreneurship are important sources of job creation. One in six people in employment are self-employed and small and micro-enterprises provide a third of all jobs. Ongoing structural changes (e.g. technology change) create new ways of working in which flexibility and vision can provide new opportunities for smaller businesses. The challenge for Europe is to contribute to the development of the framework conditions that promote start-ups and their expansion and pay due regard to underrepresented groups such as women and youth. This includes investment in entrepreneurial education and financial literacy as well as conventional career guidance, skills development and access to finance.
This chapter looks at how labour law can support the creation of more and better jobs. Non-standard work contracts cover a wide range of situations that include part-time, fixed-term or seasonal work, as well as on-demand, on-call and agency work, project contracts, job-sharing, lending and pool arrangements, and crowdsourcing. This is associated with structural changes such as technological progress and globalisation which are changing the world of work. The increasing variety of contracts makes a case for re-evaluating existing labour legislation requirements to ensure a fair balance between flexibility and security. Indeed, while flexibility is needed, some contracts can bring about work uncertainty, spells of (uncovered) unemployment, fewer working hours, less social protection and less autonomy in work decisions. The chapter then focuses on two specific areas governed by labour law: employment protection legislation (EPL) and occupational safety and health (OSH). It analyses the relationship between the effectiveness of the civil justice system and EPL, and how these two combined may affect labour market outcomes. It concludes that labour market dynamics are significantly affected by the effectiveness of the justice system.
Levels of long-term and very long-term unemployment are at record highs, with the chances of finding a job being much lower (50% lower) than for the short-term unemployed. Nevertheless the labour market attachment of those without jobs has held up during the crisis, unlike in the US. The young, the low-skilled and third-country nationals have seen their long-term unemployment rates increase the most. However, the old and low-skilled, once in long-term unemployment, have the lowest chance of returning to work. An in-depth analysis shows that policy interventions are a key influence in helping the long-term unemployed back into work. Participating in training or education, being registered with the public employment services and receiving unemployment benefits are key positive factors even when controlling for macro-economic circumstances and personal characteristics.
Population ageing translates into a decline in the working-age population. To achieve higher growth, Europe needs to increase employment rates (including through mobility) and productivity growth and tap into migration. Mobile people in the EU tend to be young and highly educated and their employment rates are higher than those of the native population. Mobility has been increasing across the EU over the past two decades but remains low compared to other countries around the world. Moreover, mobile workers are under-represented in fast-growing sectors in the economy and work in jobs below their qualifications. Third-country migrant workers are a diverse pool but on average hold lower qualifications which can explain why on average they have lower employment rates. Highly qualified migrants instead have similar or higher chances than natives of being employed. This suggests that promoting skills can play an important role.
This chapter considers different dimensions of the functioning and effectiveness of social dialogue at national level, with a specific focus on membership of social partner organisations, collective bargaining, as well as trust, cooperation and conflict. Furthermore, the chapter considers the role of social partners in the design and implementation of policies and reforms, particularly in the framework of the European Semester. The chapter finds that in a challenging environment, social partners can play a key role in promoting a social market economy. More analysis on the critical success factors (including capacity building) would be useful.
Ensuring that adequate high-quality skills are available and well-employed in the labour market remains an ongoing challenge for European policymakers, particularly in the face of numerous demographic, economic and social pressures. This chapter examines the extent to which Europe experiences mismatches on both sides of the market. Improving outcomes requires effective forecasting, relevant training for young people, active support for older workers to retrain, and wider visibility and recognition of skills acquired informally or across borders. Employers, as well as government, have a role and responsibility in such measures.
This chapter looks at recent developments in relation to the effectiveness and efficiency of social protection systems in Europe over the life course. Its main focus is family policies and those that promote a longer working life. The first part of this chapter examines expenditure trends and the recent development of the effectiveness and efficiency of social protection systems. The second part looks at social protection in relation to childhood and late careers, which are two specific stages in the life cycle.
This working paper looks at poverty dynamics in Europe. Analysing poverty dynamics, i.e. incorporating time dimension to the analysis, helps to better understand the characteristics and various facets of poverty. In addition to looking at persistent poverty, it is important to look at the probability of exiting and entering poverty in different groups of the population and at poverty trajectories of the poor. This working paper presents empirical evidence on various issues related to poverty dynamics based on EU-SILC longitudinal data spanning from 2008 to 2012.
This note reviews the main drivers of inequality in the European Union and reflects on what can be done about it at EU level. It explains the distinction between inequalities of opportunities and inequalities of outcomes and discusses how inequality affects growth and the labour market.
This publications is available only in electronic version.
This analytical web-note provides an overview on the recent trends in poverty and social exclusion statistics, based on the indicator of at-risk-of poverty or social exclusion (AROPE) and its three components: at-risk of poverty, severe material deprivation and jobless households. It provides an update of the European Commission (2014) supplement on "Trends in Poverty and Social Exclusion".