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ENVIRONMENT
 Integrating the human element into climate models
Models for climate change have previously operated as if humans do not exist, but now there has been a radical rethink. The latest thinking in global environmental change research, requires not only continued development of sophisticated climate models and an understanding of the processes behind them, but also the integration of these models with human behaviour. According to Kevin Noone, executive director of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGPB) the impacts outlined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group 2 Report “Climate Change 2007:Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability”, will need new interdisciplinary evaluation tools, taking into account policy options, economic preferences and decision making. These new tools should combine active predictive descriptions of human behaviour and choice with the kinds of models used to predict future changes in climate.
 | | Future climate models must incorporate human behaviour, experts say |
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The adaptation of human beings to the effects of global warming can take a variety of forms, with both positive and negative environmental impacts. These may be small-scale actions such as improved building design for more efficient cooling and heating, water conservation and better weather forecasting. Large-scale measures may range between switching economies to renewable energy resources to attempts to modify the earth’s environment. The mass movement of people away from those areas adversely affected by climate change is also an example of adaptation. However, all of these scenarios possess environmental consequences and the larger the adaptation, the greater the need for it to be carefully studied and properly understood.
A fundamental issue is the effect any adaptation scheme would have on equity around the world. The IPCC WG2 report shows that in many cases the areas facing the greatest climate challenges are not only in countries that have contributed the least to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, but are also least able to adapt to them. Dr Noone points out that we will adapt to a changing climate but the question arises, “What level of justice and equity should be employed in how we adapt?” It needs to be recognised that one individual, group or country’s adaptation to climate change could lead to increased vulnerability for others, particularly with regard to the access and use of water. Building these dynamics into a computer model therefore presents a challenge requiring input from both the biophysical and social sciences.
Researchers from the IGBP who authored chapters of the IPPC report, have warned that no one will be free from the impacts of a changing climate, although developing nations will be hit hardest of all. Recent evidence from extreme weather conditions and droughts demonstrated widely varying impacts between old and young, rich and poor and those with strong versus weak social institutions and support. By adopting a risk management perspective, as recommended in the IPCC report, decision-makers can gain greater insight into climate risks such as the numbers of people facing hunger and water stress as well as economic damage.
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More information:
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
International Geosphere-Biosphere
Climate Change on Europa
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