The problem

International policies governing agricultural trade must be sensitive to variability in the international trade in agricultural produce, including arable crops and oilseeds. In turn, arable crop and oilseed markets can be highly responsive to the international policies covering their trade. It is imperative, therefore, that any such policy is based on an understanding of these interactions and how agricultural economies can be affected. These interactions can be examined and understanding improved through appropriate case-study modelling.

Overview:

The purpose of WEMAC is to develop a partial equilibrium model that will provide simulations of the global effect of agriculture policy, trade reform and macroeconomic factors on arable crop and oilseed markets. The project will:

• Develop medium-term projections for the world cereal and oilseed sectors
• Measure the effects of alternative agricultural domestic and trade policies on arable crops and oilseeds markets

Contribution to policy development:

• New models and case studies undertaken in WEMAC will help inform future debate on the most appropriate lines to pursue in developing agricultural policy.
• The models will enable policy-makers to undertake a range of market forecasts which they can examine before making any significant decisions.
• WEMAC models will enable policy-makers to examine the specific effects of a range of market management options before making the final selection.

Project deliverables

• Report: modelling structure of each sub-model – January 2007
• Annual report – January 2007/2008
• Report: results of national case-study modelling – July 2007
• Report: baseline case-studies – May 2008
• Report: possible improvements of the modelling of the CAP – July 2008
• Report: effects of market imperfections – July 2008
• Report: case-study simulations – January 2009
• Final report – January 2009

Dissemination

• Project website to present the project aims, programme and findings – ongoing
• Open project presentation and training workshop – near end of project
• Present progress and findings at scientific workshops and conferences – as needed
• Publish findings through the public broadcast and print media – as needed

Technical information

Project acronym: WEMAC
Project’s official full title: World Econometric Modelling of Arable Crops
Research priority: 1.1. Modernisation and sustainability of agriculture and forestry, including their multifunctional role in order to ensure the sustainable development and promotion of rural areas
Specific webpage: http://w3.rennes.inra.fr/wemac/
Proposal/contract no: 006611
Start date: 1 January 2006
Kick off meeting: January 2006
Completion date: January 2009
European Commission scientific officer: Hans-Jorg Lutzeyer, Hans-Joerg.Lutzeyer@ec.europa.eu

Coordinator:
Catherine Benjamin
Name: Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique
Abbreviated name: INRA-ESR
Address: 4 allée Adolphe Bobierre
CS 61103
35011 Rennes cedex
Country: France
Tel: +33 02 23 48 53 82
Fax: +33 02 23 48 53 80
Website: www.rennes.inra.fr

Partners

Name: University of Aberdeen – The Arkleton Institute of Rural Development Research
Abbreviated name: UNIABDN
Country: United Kingdom         

Name: Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore – Istituto di Economia Agroalimentare Piacenza
Abbreviated name: UNICATT
Country: Italy     

Name: Teagasc, Rural Economy Research Centre
Abbreviated name: RERC
Country: Ireland