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Fisheries and Aquaculture
Fisheries and Aquaculture - Towards sustainable development of fishing and aquaculture activities
“Towards reducing uncertainty in fishery management through risk assessment and management.”

The problem

Fishery management is beset with uncertainty, the causes of which occur from the point of capture through to consumer demand and market fluctuations. Hitherto there has been little opportunity to allow for uncertainty yet the likelihood of any given management action having a positive outcome is affected by these uncertainties. There is a growing need to investigate ways of reducing uncertainty by adapting risk analysis theory to the full management process from stock assessment, through to decision making, practical implementation, control and compliance.

PRONE  Assessing risk in fishery advice and management decisions


PRONE will test current risk analysis theory on four fisheries subject to different management regimes: the Faroe Islands, Greece, Iceland and North Sea. The project will:

  • Incorporate risk identification and probabilistic evaluation of potential management actions: risk assessment, the formulation of methods to manage risk –
    risk management
  • Explore the means of ensuring that the outputs of risk assessment and risk management are understood by stakeholders – risk communication.
  • Conduct an additional case study in human health risk analysis (Baltic herring – dioxin)

Contribution to policy development:

  • PRONE will help validate management decisions by identifying the risks associated with each
    option considered
  • By identifying such risks, the management process will become more transparent, to the benefit of
    all stakeholders
  • The identification and evaluation of economic risk will enable fishery managers, the EU and member states to include the socio-economic aspects to fisheries management.

Project deliverables

Reports: Probabilistic evaluation and comparison of ICES uncertainty methodology Bayesian stock assessment, June 2007 – Improvement of stock and recruitment information by hierarchical models, June 2007 – Stakeholder interview results, January 2008 – Strategic risk management: stability of international fisheries agreements and ecological harvesting strategies, January 2008 – Management of Baltic herring – dioxin problem: biological or human risks?, January 2008 – Value-of-information and value-of-control in the planning of risk management, June 2008 – Review of risk perception and identification in four case studies, October 2008 – Exploiting information, October 2008 – Risk communication work in four case studies, October 2008 – Final report, December 2008.


  • Launch of website – April 2006 with regular updates
  • Two newsletters – January 2007 and October 2008
  • Ten project reports will be suitable for submission to international peer review journals – ongoing
  • Further dissemination among scientists though an ICES conference theme session in 2008
  • Non-technical summaries of project findings to national and international fishing trade press – ongoing
  • A university summer-school course for decision analysis methodology will be arranged - 2008/9

Technical information

Project acronym: PRONE 
Project’s official full title: Precautionary risk methodology in fisheries
Research priority: 1.3. Modernisation and sustainability of fisheries, including aquaculture-based production systems
Specific webpage: Details not yet available
Proposal/contract no: 022589
Start date: 1 January 2006
Kick off meeting: February 2006
Completion date: 31 December 2008
European Commission scientific officer: Snorri Rúnar Pálmason,

Prof. Sakari Kuikka
Name: University of Helsinki
Abbreviated name: UHel
Address: Environmental Research Centre
Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences
PO Box 65 (Viikinkaari 1)
00014 University of Helsinki
Country: Finland
Tel: +358 (0)9 191 57917
Fax: +358 (0)9 191 57847


Name: Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science
Abbreviated name: CEFAS
Country: United Kingdom

Name: Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine
Abbreviated name: IC
Country: United Kingdom

Name: Centre for the Economics and Management of Aquatic Resources
Abbreviated name: CEMARE
Country: United Kingdom

Name: Hellenic Centre for Marine Research
Abbreviated name: HCMR
Country: Greece

Name: Faculty of Natural Resource Science, University of Akureyri, Iceland
Abbreviated name: UNAK
Country: Iceland

Name: Instituto Tecnológico Pesquero y Alimentario, Fundación AZTI
Abbreviated name: AZTI
Country: Spain