The problem

Agriculture covers about half of the EU’s territory with concomitant consequences for determining land-use structure and landscape quality. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) is primarily concerned with ensuring adequate market prices and satisfactory income to farmers. In addition, however, it includes provision for rural development and preservation of landscapes, many of which are in agriculturally marginal but visually and environmentally sensitive areas. But in order to balance the economy with ecology, we need to increase the efficiency with which potential conflicts of interest are identified and resolved.

Overview:

LUMOCAP will develop protocols for assessing the environmental and rural landscape implications of future change and development of the Common Agriculture Policy (CAP). These protocols will be based on the application of a computer-based model that embraces land-use interaction with the socio-economics of rural communities. Model sensitivity will be tested in Poland and another, more established Member State. Ultimately, versions will be available for analysing and forecasting interactions at national, regional and EU-wide land use and landscape interaction analyses per square kilometre.

Contribution to policy development:

• LUMOCAP will inform discussions on future developments of the CAP for individual Member States, across regions and the EU as a whole.
• The project will provide a means to review past effects of the CAP so as to identify both positive and negative interactions between policy and land use.
• The project will contribute towards stabilising long-term socio-economic conditions in rural communities and areas of environmental sensitivity.

Project deliverables

• Relationships between biophysical conditions and land use change, and between socio-economic variables and land use change – January 2006
• Relationships between CAP measures and land use change – September 2006
• Parametric rules for CAP induced land use dynamics – January 2007
• Preliminary quantitative land use models – January 2007
• Development of landscape indicators and formal description of algorithms – January 2007
• Ex-ante assessment of CAP impact – September 2007
• Final version of the land use model – December 2007
• Final project results – December 2007

Dissemination

• Project website – throughout project
• Workshops for potential LUMOCAP model users – as necessary
• Presentation of progress and results at technical and scientific meetings – as opportunities arise
• Specialist training materials and guidance on the model’s application

Technical information

Project acronym: LUMOCAP
Project’s official full title: Dynamic land use change modelling for CAP impact assessment on the rural landscape
Specific webpage: http://www.riks.nl/projects/LUMOCAP
Proposal/contract no: 006556
Start date: January 2005
Kick off meeting: January 2005
Completion date: December 2007

Coordinator: Hedwig Van Delden, Ir.
Name: Research Instituut voor Kennissystemen
Abbreviated name: RIKS
Address: Witmakersstraat 10, P.O. Box 463 6200 AL Maastricht
Country: Netherlands
Tel: +31 (0) 43 350 1750
Fax: +31 (0) 43 350 1751
e-mail: info@riks.nl
Website: www.riks.nl

Partners

Name: Katholieke Universiteit Leuven
Abbreviated name: KU Leuven
Country: Belgium

Name: Institute of Soil Science and Plant Cultivation
Abbreviated name: IUNG
Country: Poland 

Name: Institute for Environment and Sustainability at the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre
Abbreviated name: EC-DG JRC-IES
Country: Italy