The problem

The price of oil is possibly the greatest single factor affecting the European economy and its potential for growth. Understanding how the economy responds to changes in oil price, and how this might be affected by alternative energy supplies, is fundamental to any economic forecasting. Continual investigation of these key factors and improvement to analytical models is an essential prerequisite to dependable, long-term strategic planning.

Overview:

HOP! will build on the earlier STEPs and TRIAS projects to provide improved evaluations of the effects of high oil prices on the EU economy, specifically transport and employment. These assessments will include:

• Reviewing the effects of renewable energy in European supplies
• Up-to-date analytical models with feed-back loops responding to immediate past events, including price increase, will provide results that enable policy-makers to investigate ‘what if’ questions
• Contributions to European strategies, including the emerging Common Energy Policy for Europe

Contribution to policy development:

• HOP! will build on the findings of STEPs and TRIAS – two projects funded under the Sixth Framework Programme for Research (2002-2006) – to estimate the effect of high oil prices on the EU economy and employment.
• The project will increase present abilities in handling uncertainty concerning oil prices and their implications for the EU economy.
• Improved understanding of the effects of high oil prices will improve decisions relating to European strategies for sustainable transport and energy systems.
• An improved understanding of high oil-price economics will contribute to more effective integration of European energy and transport policies.

Project deliverables

• Comparison of the main national and international studies – April 2007
• Selected scenarios and models structure – June 2007
• Methodology validation workshop and report – July 2007
• Quantification of direct and indirect impacts of high oil prices for the EU – March 2008
• Results validation workshop and report – April 2008
• Project summary and recommendations – June 2008

Dissemination

• Project website – from March 2007
• Submission of results for publication in peer-review journals and less formal articles written for the professional and trade press – as opportunities arise

Technical information

Project acronym: HOP!
Project’s official full title: Macro-economic impact of High Oil Price in Europe
Research priority: The development of tools, indicators and operational parameters for assessing sustainable transport and energy systems performance (economic, environmental and social)
Specific webpage: Details not yet available
Proposal/contract no: 044164
Start date: January 2007
Kick off meeting: January 2007
Completion date: June 2008
European Commission scientific officer: Odissefs Panopoulos, Odissefs.Panopoulos@ec.europa.eu
European Commission project officer: Mathieu Grisel, Mathieu.Grisel@ec.europa.eu

Coordinator: Angelo Martino
Name: TRT Trasporti e Territorio
Abbreviated name: TRT
Address: Via Rutilia 10/8
IT-20141 Milano
Country: Italy
Tel: +39 02 57410380
Fax: +39 02 55212845
Website: www.TRTtrasportieterritorio.it

Partners

Name: Institute for Prospective Technological Studies
Abbreviated name: JRC - IPTS
Country: Spain   

Name: Fraunhofer-Institut für System und Innovationsforschung 
Abbreviated name: Fraunhofer-ISI
Country: Germany