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DST2
Development of structurally detailed statistically testable models of marine populations

An approach will be developed for modelling marine ecosystems and their exploitation, based on detailed structures and disaggregated data. Models will be developed in which a rigorous statistical hypothesis-testing approach can be used to determine the model structure and parameterisation appropriate to explain the available data. In four case studies, these models will be used to evaluate current perceptions of stock histories and of appropriate management based on simpler models. The main aim of the project is to determine the level of model complexity that is most appropriate to inform and advise fishery managers under a number of commonly-applied management scenarios. 'Data warehouses' of general applicability will be assembled with libraries of programs to implement structural models and observation-error models, to estimate parameters and associated uncertainties and to test and evaluate alternative hypotheses.

Objectives

Results
Construction of empirically justifiable models, with the intention of developing fisheries science as far as the information will support it. This can be used as support for decisions for levels of complexity in modelling fish stocks, supporting management decisions and in formulating long-term strategic advice.

Classified in FISHERIES AND AQUACULTURE, QUANTITATIVE APPROACHES AND MODELLING

Scientist responsible for the project

Mr GUNNAR STEFANSSON
SKULAGATA 4 Box 1390
121 Reykjavik
Iceland - IS

Phone: +354 5520240
Fax: +354 5623790
E-mail: gunnar@hafro.is

References

Project ID QLRT-1999-01609
Organisation MARINE RESEARCH INSTITUTE
Area 5.1.2
Start date 01 February 2000
Duration (months) 48
Total cost 7 965 465 €
Total EC contribution   3 056 916 €
Status Completed
Web address of the project   http://www.hafro.is/dst2/

The partners

  • The Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture, United Kingdom (The) - GB
  • DANISH INSTITUTE FOR FISHERIES RESEARCH, Denmark - DK
    ek@dfu.min.dk
  • UNIVERSITY OF BERGEN, Norway - NO
  • Institut Franšais de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la mer, France - FR
  • SCIENCE INSTITUTE, UNIVERSITY OF ICELAND, Iceland - IS
    kgm@hi.is
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