Impact evaluation centre
In any programme, the crucial questions are "what do you want to change?" and "how would you know if you have changed it?" These evaluation questions are not just bureaucratic requirements, but the essence of good programming. Impact evaluation mobilises scientific and statistical tools to follow up on these questions.
Impact evaluation in DG Regional Policy falls into two broad categories:
- "Theory-based" impact evaluation, which follows each step of the intervention logic using observational techniques (including rigorous case studies and beneficiary surveys) This method is particularly appropriate for identifying mechanisms of change, answering the questions "why?" and "how?" an intervention works.
- Counterfactual impact evaluation, ie the use of control or comparison groups. This method is particularly useful in answering "how much?" of the change is due to the intervention and comparing the effects of different instruments (or the same instrument applied to different target groups).
The distinction between the two categories is not "black and white": theory-based evaluation can incorporate the results of counterfactuals, while the choice of counterfactual should be guided by the theory of change and intervention logic.
This site is the online reference for DG Regional Policy's ongoing work in promoting more rigorous impact evaluation – of both types. The site includes published reports as well as resources and training opportunities.
Counterfactual impact evaluation
The most convincing quantification of impact involves a counterfactual – what would have happened in the absence of an intervention. Using cutting edge techniques borrowed from the physical and medical sciences we are attempting to build up a picture of the impacts of key instruments in Cohesion Policy.
- Counterfactual FAQs. Answers to some of the key policy questions
- Counterfactual impact evaluations of Cohesion Policy. DG Regional Policy has been working in this field since 2008 and we have a growing body of evidence for impacts. Each evaluation has a non-technical summary.
- Going deeper - reference materials and resources. Includes training opportunities and online reference works
We are actively seeking to promote this method within cohesion policy and are willing to provide advice and support to managing authorities. We are particularly interested in helping setting up such evaluations prospectively, ie before an intervention starts. For further information contact regio-eval@ec.europa.eu
Theory-based impact evaluation
More coming soon. In the meantime, please refer to the theory-based impact evaluation section of Evalsed.