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Central and Eastern Eurobarometer (CEEB) 6 1996

1.Economic and democratic reforms
1.1 Overall situation
1.2 Household finances
1.3 Market economy and economic reform
1.4 Democracy and human rights

2.The European Union
2.1 Where do different countries' futures lie?
2.2 The European Union's image in the region
2.3 Sources of information on the European Union
2.4 Referendum on membership of the EU and NATO
2.5 European integration: who thinks they will win or lose?

3.Use and knowledge of languages

4.Annexes
4.1 How the poll was done
4.2 Technical specifications - Introduction
4.3 Details on sampling
4.4 Realisation of fieldwork
4.5 Weighting of data
4.6 Areas covered
4.7 Backtranslation
4.8 GFK AD HOC RESEARCH
4.9 Footnotes

1.ECONOMIC AND DEMOCRATIC REFORMS
1.1 Overall situation

People's opinion is dominated by an overwhelming dissatisfaction with the way their countries have put democracy into action. Central and Eastern Eurobarometer, which remains the largest opinion poll of the region [Footnote1], was the first to reveal this trend (Autumn 1991, survey no. 2). It was also the first to show, early on, just how many people felt that they were better-off living under the old political system (Autumn 1992, survey no.3).

According to the four classic indicators of the Central and Eastern Eurobarometer (country direction, support for market economy, democracy satisfaction and human rights), Albanians [Footnote2] seem to be the most optimistic of those interviewed for this survey. The level of our indicators has risen spectacularly. Albanians are happier now than at any time in the last five years with the direction in which their country is going, the creation of a market economy, and the way in which human rights are respected in their country. For the first time since 1991, the majority of citizens in Albania are also satisfied with the way democracy has developed in their country.

In Bulgaria, for the first time in four years, the satisfaction of citizens has increased a little according to the four standard indicators. This rise in positive opinion is most significant in the areas of country direction (even if the majority of people are still unhappy about this) and democracy satisfaction. However, the level of democracy satisfaction could hardly have been lower than last time. The dissatisfaction of Bulgarians with the development of their democracy has today reached a point where a turnaround of this trend and the restoration of their confidence in the political system seems very unlikely in the near future.

In the Czech Republic, public opinion seems to be stable and positive about the country's direction. A slight improvement concerning democracy is also noticeable. With regard to the other indicators, support for the market economy and satisfaction with respect for human rights continue to fall.

In Estonia, the confidence of citizens in the economic and political capabilities of their country's system remains stable and positive. The majority of citizens remain unhappy with the way their democracy is developing.

In the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia[Footnote3] three of the four standard indicators have risen slightly compared to the results of the previous Eurobarometer survey. More than half the citizens are happy with the direction in which the country is going, as well as the respect for human rights. There is also for the first time a slightly greater number of people who support the market economy. Contrastingly, the majority of citizens are unhappy about the development of their democracy.

The Hungarians are pessimistic again - things were looking up in 1994, the year of the general election and the creation of a government dominated by reformed communists, but a significant fall in all four indicators is recorded for this survey, the largest being in the country's direction. In the whole region, it is the Hungarians who most commonly see their country heading in the wrong direction (Is this a realisation that even post-communists cannot improve the situation?).

In Latvia, the only positive indicator, after the fall recorded at the time of the Central and Eastern Eurobarometer survey no. 5, is that of the market economy, but public support in this area is still very tentative. The country's direction is seen as poor by the majority of its citizens.

In Lithuania, only the market economy gets the citizens' approval (the only one of the four indicators which is still in the positive). Disillusionment concerning their country's direction, recorded in the Eurobarometer survey in 1992, continues to worsen. The same goes for democracy satisfaction and respect of human rights.

Poland is the only country of those with a "Europe Agreement" [Footnote4] with the European Union, where all four indicators rise very significantly. Support for the market economy, always very solid, strengthens yet more and reaches the level of the period at the start of the economic reforms. A spectacular increase in satisfaction with democracy seems to be due to the recent presidential election campaign, which many observers thought was run in a manner that was both "free and fair" [Footnote5].

In Romania, worry about respect for human rights has increased again (of the inhabitants of the Europe Agreement countries only Lithuanians admit to being more worried about it). By contrast the market economy still benefits from firm public support, in spite of a drop since the previous Eurobarometer survey.

Slovaks [Footnote6]are still pessimistic even if satisfaction with democracy and the country's general direction has improved since the previous Eurobarometer survey. Appreciation for the way human rights are respected has fallen dramatically (the biggest swing of opinion recorded out of all the countries surveyed in this area). Only the market economy still benefits from the support of half the population.

In Slovenia, the majority of citizens are unhappy with the way human rights are respected in their country, as well as with the development of democracy (even if, in this survey, respect for human rights rises a little). The country's present direction has the approval of the majority of Slovenes. By contrast public opinion is divided on the beneficial effects of the market economy.

In Armenia, as in all the four CIS countries surveyed which have had results available for at least four years, all the four indicators are in the negative, even if for this country they have risen significantly. Armenians are the most dissatisfied with the development of their democracy and respect for human rights. Support for the market economy has strengthened quite a lot, even though most citizens do not see this type of economy as a good thing for their country's future.

In Belarus, though support for the market economy has strengthened since the previous Central and Eastern Eurobarometer, only a minority of citizens still support it. The majority of those interviewed remain unhappy about the development of democracy and respect for human rights. The same goes for their country's direction.

Russians are the unhappiest of all with their country's situation. The Eurobarometer survey was conducted just before the Russian legislative elections in December. The mood of the country helped the communists become the biggest party in the Duma. Dissatisfaction with the way democracy is developing and respect for human rights, which was enormous before, has now increased again and these two indicators are at their lowest levels since Eurobarometer began polling. Russian citizens' pessimism is not altogether that surprising given the perceived catastrophic situation in their country, both at economic and political levels.

Ukrainians also have a very pessimistic view of the state of their country. Discontent with their human rights record is very noticeable. Dissatisfaction with the development of democracy and their country's direction is also still very widespread. Support for the market economy has dropped since the previous Eurobarometer survey.

The results of the Central and Eastern Eurobarometer No 6 show a situation which is still highly unsatisfactory (sometimes dramatically so) in most of the countries surveyed, in the areas of democracy and respect of human rights. [Footnote7] Citizens' attitudes on the market economy are generally still the most promising of all the indicators.

Opinion on the direction which a country has taken has on the whole become more positive. Thirty-seven per cent of citizens of the ten Europe Agreement countries think that their respective country is going in the right direction (+6 points compared to the previous Eurobarometer survey), against 45% (-6). However, the majority are still negative.

In the CIS countries surveyed, this opinion is more pessimistic: only 20% (+4) of persons interviewed think that their country is moving in the right direction, against 64% (-2) who think the opposite.

Of the citizens from Europe Agreement countries, Estonians (57%) most commonly feel that their country is going in the right direction, followed by Czechs (55%) and Slovenes (45%).

The opposite opinion is most frequently expressed by Hungarians (79%: "wrong direction") and Lithuanians (71%).

Positive opinion on country direction has evolved most significantly, since the previous Eurobarometer survey, in Poland (+18), as well as in Bulgaria (+10). Growth in negative opinion has been most evident in Hungary (+21).

There is also widespread satisfaction regarding country direction in Albania (79%; +20) and Croatia (66%).

The people interviewed in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia also continue to be largely content about the direction in which their country is going (48%).

Among the CIS countries surveyed, positive opinion on this question is most frequently expressed in Georgia (45%) and Kazakhstan (43%).

The lowest number to think that way are Ukrainians (only 16% positive opinions to 67% negative opinions) and Russians (19% against 67%).

The level of satisfaction regarding country direction has increased most in Georgia (+28), Kazakhstan (+21) and Armenia (+16).

By contrast, in the Ukraine and Russia, public opinion on this issue has not changed and continues to be as negative as at the time of the previous Central and Eastern Eurobarometer survey.

1.2 Household finances

1995 further confirmed, from an economic point of view, the gulf between Europe Agreement and CIS countries. Though inflation has fallen everywhere, only the first group of countries (plus Albania and Croatia) has recorded a positive economic growth for the second successive year. According to the 1995 "Economist Intelligence Unit", GDP growth was highest (6%) in Albania, Slovakia and Poland .

In the CIS countries surveyed, with the exception of Armenia, the level of growth was once again in the negative, the worst results being in Kazakhstan (GNP: -12.5%) and the Ukraine (GNP: -12%).

In the Europe Agreement countries, people on the street seem to be very slowly starting to feel the effects of the economic progress that has been achieved: 20% (+5) of people interviewed say that their financial situation is better than it was twelve months ago, 35% (+4) think that it is still the same and 44% (-8) think it "got worse".

There is a noticeable rise in positive opinion in this area, most appreciably in Poland and Bulgaria (+9) but also in the Czech Republic (+6) and Slovakia (+5).

The highest numbers of people to think that their present financial situation is better than it was a year ago are Estonians (29%) and Czechs (28%).

By contrast, the highest number of people who think that it has got worse are the Hungarians (76%). The extent of Hungarian citizens' discontent with their household financial situation has become even more worrying now (+10) than was the case at the end of 1994.

For this Eurobarometer survey, the highest falls in negative opinion about household finances have been recorded in Bulgaria (-24), Poland (-19), the Czech Republic (-12) and Slovakia (-11).

In Albania, citizens' opinion has swung to a more optimistic viewpoint: many more people (+23) think that their present financial situation is better, compared with the results of the Central and Eastern Eurobarometer no. 5. Seventy-six percent of Albanians now think that their situation is better than a year ago and only 5% say it has got worse.

In the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, however, only 12% (-13) of people felt an improvement in this area and 49% (+12) felt their household financial situation had got worse. The situation in Croatia is much the same: 15% said it "got better", while 38% said it "got worse".

In the CIS countries surveyed, 13% (+5) of people think that their present financial situation is better than it was a year ago, 61% (-2) think it has got worse, and 25% that it has not changed.

Apart from Russia, the level of positive opinion in the CIS has risen everywhere: most of all in Georgia (+27) and Armenia (+14). It is also the people interviewed from these two countries who most commonly express an improvement of their financial situation had occurred: 39% in Georgia and 26% in Armenia say it is "better".

It is in the Ukraine that, as at the time of the previuous Central and Eastern Eurobarometer, the greatest number of people think their financial situation has got worse (72%; -3). This state of public opinion is a very true reflection of the ultra-serious economic situation in this country (GDP growth is -12% with an inflation level of 380% in 1995).

In most of the countries surveyed people's expectations for their financial situation in 1996 are more optimistic than they were for 1995 in the previous survey.

In the Europe Agreement countries, for the first time in our surveys, people expecting financial improvement in the coming twelve months (28%; +3) are equal to those fearing their situation will worsen (27%; -4).

These optimistic expectations are most often expressed in Romania (40%), Slovenia and Bulgaria (34% in each case).

Citizens' opinion has risen most in Poland (+10 compared with what they expected for 1995 at the end of 1994), as well as in Bulgaria (+8).

Hungarians are still the most pessimistic in their predictions: only 11% (-4) of people expect an improvement in this area, compared to 63% (+12) who think the financial situation of their household will worsen. There is also a rise in negative expectations in Romania, Slovenia and Latvia (+7 points in each of these three countries).

Once again Albanians are the ones most hoping to see their financial situation improve (73%; +19), while in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, this expectation has dropped appreciably (44%; -11).

In the CIS countries surveyed, there is a slight rise in optimism for the coming year. Nineteen percent (+3) of citizens in these countries think their financial situation will improve and 33% (-6) predict it will get worse.

Opinion has shot up spectacularly in Georgia (+32 points), as well as in Armenia (+17) and Kazakhstan (+12). These three countries also have the most people expecting an improvement: 46% in Georgia, 33% in Armenia and 29% in Kazakhstan.

Georgia has the fewest number expecting their financial situation to worsen during 1996 (only 9% of replies).

In the Ukraine, people's opinion on the financial future of their household has altered the least. Ukrainians are also the most pessimistic of all those in the CIS region surveyed: 41% expect a decline in their financial situation in 1996.

Once again, peoples' expectations have worsened a little in the last year, as much in the Europe Agreement countries as in those of the CIS.

In the Europe Agreement countries, 25% of people interviewed for the previous Eurobarometer survey hoped that their financial situation would get better in 1995, 34% thought it would stay the same and 30% that it would get worse. In reality the financial situation of 20% has proved "better" (-5 points below the number hoped for), that of 35% (+1) has "stayed the same" and that of 44% (+14) has "got worse".

It thus seems that the benefits of economic growth have still not flowed into most people's pockets.

The Latvians have been the most disappointed by their expectations of living in a better financial situation ("worse": +31 points more than predicted), followed by the Romanians (+26) and the Hungarians (+25).

For Albanians, 1995 was better than they had hoped (+22), while in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia it was clearly worse (-43).

In the CIS countries surveyed, the majority of people did not think that 1995 would bring any improvement in their financial situation, but neither did they expect it to become any worse.

In fact, people's hopes for 1995 were respectively: 16% "get better", 23% "stay the same" and 39% "get worse". At the end of 1995, 13% of people (-3 points below expectations) felt the financial situation of their household over the last year had "got better", 25% (+2) felt it "stayed the same" and 61% (+22) felt it had "got worse".

1.3 Market economy and economic reform

It is already six years since the countries of Central and Eastern Europe first started to introduce economic reform with a view to bringing in the market economy. In spite of the sacrifices asked of (or rather imposed on) the populations of these countries during this period, more than half the people interviewed in the ten countries with a Europe Agreement with the European Union still support the market economy.

More precisely, asked whether they personally feel that the creation of a market economy, that is one largely free from state control, is right or wrong for the future of their country, 53% of citizens from Europe Agreement countries think that a market economy is right, while 26% think it is wrong.

The market economy, one of the main catalysts for changing the former system, is viewed very differently by people from Europe Agreement countries and those from the Commonwealth of Independent States. This difference of opinion is just as great as it was for previous Eurobarometer surveys: in the CIS countries only 22% of people interviewed consider a market economy as "right" for their country and 59% think it is "wrong". This trend has not changed since the previous survey.

Support for the market economy is strongest in Albania (76% "right"), while opposition to it is strongest in Russia (65% "wrong").

The Europe Agreement countries with most supporters for the market economy are Romania (64% "right") and Poland (62%).

The biggest rise in support since the previous survey has been in Poland (+13).

By contrast, opposition to the market economy has, compared with a year ago strongly in Hungary (+9 "wrong").

Opinion on this matter is still very divided in Slovakia, Latvia and Slovenia.

The situation is totally differentin the CIS countries that were surveyed: in five out of six countries (Georgia excluded), the majority of people are against the market economy.

At the top of this list we find Russia, where 65% of interviewees think the free market is "wrong" ("right" 19%)

The market economy is most popular in Georgia and Armenia (45% say it is"right" in both cases)and this is also where we find the most dramatic rise in positive opinion compared with the previous survey: +23% in Georgia and +21% in Armenia.

Positive opinion on the market economy is most evident in Albania: 76% of people asked think it is "right" for their country (+9 compared with a year ago). People are also highly in favour of this in Croatia (65% "right" to 18% "wrong"). In the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, people's opinion on the market economy is shared between the 39% of those interviewed who consider it to be "right" for their country's future, and the 36% who think it is "wrong".

The question on the desired speed of economic reforms has been asked only in CIS countries this time. An analysis of the results obtained allows us to spot the same trend that emerged for the previous Eurobarometer survey, that is, people's immense frustration with their economic condition.

Indeed only 6% of people asked in all these countries think that economic reforms are going at the right speed, while all the others are unhappy with them - they either think the process of economic reform is too slow (34%) or too fast (16%) or else they think it is non-existent (26%).

Those in Georgia (50%) and Armenia (45%) are most likely to think that economic reforms are going too slowly - these also being CIS countries with the most supporters of the market economy. Public opinion on this has also been most volatile in these two countries, whereas in the other four CIS countries, opinion remains relatively stable.

In Georgia, the number of people who think that economic changes are going too slowly has increased by 21 points and the number of those who think there are no economic reforms has decreased by 30 points.

In Armenia on the one hand there is a drop in the number of people who think that no economic reforms are taking place in their country (-18 points) and on the other a rise in the thinking that these reforms have been put into action too fast (+12 points).

The opinion that there are no economic reforms in progress in their country is expressed most by people asked in the Ukraine (30%), Belarus (29%) and Russia (26%).

By contrast persons asked in Armenia (24%) and Russia (20%) express most the view that these reforms have been put into action too quickly.

1.4 Democracy and human rights

The worrying situation of a widespread lack of satisfaction with the development of democracy, which was recorded in the previous Eurobarometer surv ey, seems to have improved a little over the past twelve months, especially in the ten Europe Agreement countries.

Though the citizens interviewed in the Europe Agreement countries are largely still dissatisfied with the way democracy is developing in their country (55% -11 points), more gave a positive response this time (38%, +12 points compared to the previous survey).

In the CIS countries, seen as a whole the state of opinion on democracy is also still poor; 79% are unsatisfied while only 10% say they are "very" or "fairly" satisfied.

Of all the nineteen countries surveyed, there are only three where people satisfied with their democracy outnumber those who are dissatisfied (last time there were none). They are Albania (59% satisfied compared to 41% unsatisfied), Croatia (52% compared to 42%) and Poland (50% compared to 38%). Poland also has the least number of people dissatisfied with their democracy.

Of the Europe Agreement countries other than Poland, the Czech Republic has a fairly high number of people satisfied with the development of their democracy: 46% compared to 50% dissatisfied.

By contrast the state of opinion on this issue in Bulgaria is dreadful - only 13% of persons interviewed were satisfied, compared to 80% (!) who were dissatisfied, and in Hungary 20% were satisfied while 77% were dissatisfied.

Opinion on this indicator has shifted most in Poland since the previous Eurobarometer survey: positive responses were up 27 points (very possibly largely the effect of the presidential election and its campaign).

In the CIS countries surveyed, people everywhere (except in Georgia) have an extremely poor view of the way democracy is developing: an overwhelming majority of citizens interviewed expressed their dissatisfaction. There is no change in this situation from last year.

A record level of negative opinion on democracy has been recorded in Russia: 86% (!) compared to just 6% positive responses.

The development of democracy is appreciated the most in Georgia (compared with other countries of the CIS), which is equally the country where people's opinions have proved most volatile on this issue. Indeed 43% of Georgians in this survey said they were satisfied with their democracy (+25 points compared to the previous survey) while 47% were dissatisfied (-27).

The majority of Albanians (59% to 41%) and Croats (52% to 42%) are happy with the development of their democracy. In the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, however, only 37% of citizens are satisfied with the way democracy is being put into action in their country while 55% remain dissatisfied.

The very high level of dissatisfaction regarding respect of human rights is equal to that concerning the development of democracy.

Negative opinion has not risen in this survey compared to the previous one (as was the case in the three surveys conducted between 1992 and 1994). Nevertheless in autumn 1995, public opinion was still just as critical about the lack of respect for human rights.

In the ten Europe Agreement countries, 53% (-3 points less than the Eurobarometer no. 5 result) of people interviewed think that there is "not much respect" or "no respect at all" for individual human rights in their country while 40% (+3) reckon there is "a lot of" or "some respect" for these rights (in the Visegrad countries the figures are 46% versus 46%).

In the CIS countries, many more citizens think that human rights are not being respected: 81% (+2) feel this way while only 16% (-1) feel to the contrary.

Only in four of the nineteen countries surveyed are there majorities who say human rights are respected: in Albania (75% to 24%), Croatia (74% to 20%), Hungary (57% to 39%), and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (53% to 40%).

The results are divided in a further four Europe Agreement countries: Estonia (50% to 48%), Czech Republic (47% to 48%), Poland (44% to 47%) and Bulgaria (43% to 45%).

In Croatia the level of people dissatisfied with the respect for human rights was the lowest of all the countries surveyed (20%).

The biggest rises in positive opinion since autumn 1994 have occurred in Albania (+21), Georgia (+20) and Poland (+14). By contrast a very sharp drop has been recorded in Slovakia (-23), presumably due to the difficult political situation there.

Of the CIS countries surveyed, Kazakhstan has the highest number of interviewees who think that human rights are being respected in their country (45% to 52%).

Russia, on the other hand, holds the record among all the surveyed countries for negative opinion on the issue: 85% (!) of people who replied to this question think there is "not much" (35%) or "no respect at all" (50%) for these rights in their country.

2. THE EUROPEAN UNION

2.1Where do different countries' futures lie?

The enlargement of the European Union, to include Austria, Finland and Sweden in January 1995, has failed to strengthen its standing in Central Europe with the exception of the Baltic States.

By contrast, for the citizens of the CIS countries, the importance of Russia has increased a little since the previous Eurobarometer survey.

As was the case a year ago, in the ten Europe Agreement countries, the largest percentage of people interviewed think that "the future of their country is most closely tied up" with the European Union (34%). The United States of America is next (16%), then Russia (9%), other Central and Eastern European countries (8%) and Germany (6%).

Opinion has swayed there most in favour of the USA (+7). By contrast the category "other European countries like Norway and Switzerland which remain outside the European Union" - which no longer includes countries which have recently joined the EU - has become less attractive (-7).

In the Europe Agreement countries, citizens were most likely to believe the European Union is their future partner in Estonia (45%), Slovenia (44%) and Poland (40%), and the least in Hungary (26%) and Bulgaria (27%).

In nine out of ten Europe Agreement countries, the European Union came first, as the future partner for their country. The only exception was Romania, where as many interviewees chose the USA (32%) as the European Union (30%).

By contrast only 11% of citizens from the CIS countries surveyed link the future of their country with that of the European Union. The highest numbers to do so are in Georgia (15%) and the Ukraine (14%) with the lowest numbers in Kazakhstan and Armenia (3% in both cases).

In Albania, despite a large drop in popularity (-20 points), people still consider their future to be primarily linked with the European Union (44%), something which is no longer the case in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (34% "EU", 39% "United States")

The European Union has gained the most popularity, since the previous Eurobarometer survey, in Estonia (+25 points), Slovenia (+13) and Latvia (+9).

The United States have strengthened their favourable standing in several of the countries surveyed: most spectacularly Albania (+23), the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (+13), Romania (+10) and Slovenia (+9).

The future of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Croatia (39% in both cases) lies primarily with the USA. The American involvement in the ex-Yugoslavia peace process seems to have impressed public opinion in this part of Europe.

The largest numbers of citizens from Europe Agreement countries who see the future of their country linked with Russia are found in Latvia (24%, +4), Bulgaria (23%, +4), , Estonia (17%, +3) and Lithuania (16%, +1). The fewest are in Slovenia (0%), the Czech Republic (1%) and Hungary (3%).

Nor was Russia prominent in Croatia (0%), the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (1%) and Albania (4%).

"Other European countries like Norway and Switzerland which remain outside the Union" were most frequently suggested as future partners by the Czechs (15%).

Germany (cited spontaneously by interviewees as it is not among the categories read out) came top in Croatia (22%), Hungary (14%), and Poland (9%).

"Other Central and Eastern European countries" were chosen in greatest number in Slovakia (15%) and Hungary (13%).

Turkey came top among persons asked in Kazakhstan (19%) and Georgia (9%).

Public opinion in Russia and the CIS seems more and more convinced of the need to increase ties with each other: 35% (+7) of Russians see the future of their country mostly tied up with other CIS countries and 55% (+6) of citizens from the CIS countries surveyed think the same thing with regards to Russia.

Russia's importance is greatest in Armenia (76%) and Belarus (68%) and lowest in Georgia (34%).

After the CIS, Russians see their future partners as the USA (25%) and the European Union (12%).

2.2 The European Union's image in the region

People are positive rather than negative about the aims and activities of the European Union, despite a slight deterioration in the image of the EU throughout the region surveyed.

In fact,40% of people questioned in the ten Europe Agreement countries have a positive impression of the European Union, 6% "negative" and 23% who declared themselves "neutral". Above all, there is a reduction in those who are neutral (-5 points compared to a year ago) and an increase in "don't knows" (+6) [Footnote9].

In contrast, the image of the European Union in CIS countries surveyed is less

favourable: only 30% of those interviewed have a positive view of the EU, 6% negative and 18% neutral. Forty-six percent of people from the CIS countries who replied "don't know" to this question (+18) compared to 31% (+6) in the Europe Agreement countries.

In four of the ten Europe Agreement countries the positive view of the European Union has fallen since the previous Central and Eastern Eurobarometer survey: Lithuania (-11), Bulgaria (-10), Czech Republic (-8) and Slovakia (-6). The most pronounced deterioration in the image of the Union can be seen in Lithuania where in 1991 (Central and Eastern Eurobarometer no 2) 51% of opinions were positive as opposed to 23% today.

In five countries this positive view has remained unchanged (Latvia, Estonia, Hungary, Romania and Slovenia)and only in one country, Poland, has it been slightly increased (+4).

In spite of this, in all the Europe Agreement countries, positive impressions of the European Union outnumber negative ones, but in four of these countries, a more neutral view predominates: the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Estonia and Lithuania.

Only in two of the Europe Agreement countries is an absolute majority decidedly positive with regard to the European Union: Romania (50%) and Poland (46%). It is the second consecutive year that positive impressions of the EU have risen in Poland, this time attaining the level recorded at the time of the first Central and Eastern Eurobarometer, in 1990.

The greatest number of people who have no opinion on this subject are to be found in Bulgaria (50%: "don't know") and in Lithuania (43%).

Amongst the CIS countries, a positive view of "the aims and activities of the European Union" is most often expressed in Armenia (52%) and this is also where the response "don't know" is lowest (17%).

In Georgia, positive opinions are rare (16%) but the number of "don't know" replies, at 71%, is a record.

In general, it seems that among the CIS countries surveyed, indifference (due to a lack of information?) predominates. This reveals itself on the one hand in the very low figure of negative opinion, and on the other by a very high number of people who did not know how to reply to the question.

In Albania (64%; -8), despite a significant reduction in positive responses since the previous Central and Eastern Eurobarometer survey, the European Union retains a very favourable image in people's minds (the best of all the countries surveyed). But this image is not what it was, the height of popularity having been in 1992 (79%; -15 points since then).

In the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, positive opinion about the EU remains stable (40%; +1), the level of neutral opinion has fallen considerably (10%; -22 points) and "don't know" replies have increased considerably (38%; +26 points).

In Croatia, surveyed for the first time, positive responses about the Union (37%) are slightly higher than those that are neutral (30%) and greatly exceed negative attitudes (13%).

To give us a better idea of what Central and Eastern Europeans think of the European Union, they were asked to give reasons for their positive, negative or neutral opinion of the EU (open-ended question).

Those who expressed a neutral opinion on the European Union were also those who found it the most difficult to explain their view.

Positive views of the activities of the Union are based on economic reasons far more often than political ones.

Amongst the Europe Agreement countries, the most common replies are those that can be placed in the category "improving the economy/(thanks to) the free market" (14%) and "general progress thanks to European Union aid" (10%).

People interviewed in Romania (21%) and Poland (18%) are those most likely to think that the state of the national economy will improve thanks to the liberalisation of the market. The people who attach these hopes to the Union say that "Poland willbe able to sell its goods easily, and it will be easier for us to pay off our huge debt";"thanks to competition, our products will be of a better quality and there will be more cheap foreign products" (from those interviewed in Poland); "their (EU) market will be more open to us", "the European Union creates the market which aids economic development" (from those interviewed in Hungary).

The Poles are the most numerous to believe in general progress thanks to (future membership of) the Union (13%) and a better chance for development (10%). The following examples of responses illustrate these hopes: "to be a member of the EU; that would mean economic progress, new technology, prosperity, protection for the retired, - in the West everyone lives well" ; "the EU is the only means by which Poland will develop" (from people in Poland); "things would be better if our country was a member of the EU"; "an improvement in the standard of living" (Czech responses).

The Union's financial aid is appreciated most in Romania (9%) and both scientific cooperation and cooperation at a cultural and educational level contributes to a positive image of the EU above all in Poland (10%).

Poles are also the most appreciative of the Union in the sense that the opening of frontiers offers the possibility of leaving (i.e. immigrating) to work in one of the Union's member states (10%).

Political reasons also contribute to the Union's positive image in the Europe Agreement countries. It is about "security, stability and peace" (4%) and "democracy and human rights" (2%). The first of these responses is given most often by people interviewed in Poland (7%), then Estonia and Romania (4% in both cases). Here is what they say on the subject: "the EU helps to maintain peace in Europe", "law will be more democratic" (from those interviewed in Estonia).

In the CIS countries surveyed, a far smaller number of people give the reason that the Union would present economic benefits for their country thanks to the liberalisation of the market (only 3% as opposed to 14% in the Europe Agreement countries).

People in the CIS having a positive image of the Union talk most often about "European unity" (11%), thinking in terms of friendship and mutual cooperation. In this category, very general comments predominate such as: "we must unite, to be friends" (a person from Belarus) or "the word 'Union' already says it all, their power is in their Union, the Union is the basis of development" (an Armenian).

The basis for a positive impression of European Union activities is also quite often "development" thanks to the Union's aid, or "better living conditions", or even more generally "a better future" . Here are several replies which express these hopes from people interviewed in the CIS countries: "I hope that life will be better in the Ukraine", "the European Union will help us" (from Ukrainians), "there will be progress in Belarus", "membership will improve our situation" (from people in Belarus).

Less often, a positive impression of the Union is linked to its role in the promotion of international stability, peace or human rights.

In the Europe Agreement countries a negative view of the Union is often based on a conviction that their own country will be exploited economically or that the national economy will lose out because it is too weak (3%). People say "they are looking to sell, not to buy" (a Hungarian); "our production will be ruined given that our products do not conform to European standards" (a Latvian).

Sometimes those interviewed speak of a loss of identity or sovereignty concerning future membership of the Union (2%). Here are several replies of this kind: "Latvia will lose its independence"; "there is nothing good in it for small countries" (someone from the Czech Republic), "they will tell us how we should live" (a Slovak).

Another negative reason occasionally expressed is a lack of concrete and tangible results in relations with the EU. The people interviewed say: "the results aren't very visible" (a Slovak), "I don't see any good in it" (a Hungarian); "nothing will change" (a Latvian).

In the CIS countries surveyed, negative views (very few in number) of the European Union are based on the observation that the EU thinks and reacts above all in its own interests. People expressed this criticism by saying "they only think of themselves" (someone from Georgia); "the aim of the EU is to break Russia like they did with Yugoslavia" (a Russian).

Sometimes those interviewed express the fear of their country losing its independence. They say "the Republic of Belarus will become a colony of Western Europe"; "I feel that Russia would become answerable to the West and that would be out of the question".

Those interviewed expressing a neutral impression regarding the activities of the European Union usually explain this as being due to a lack of information on the subject (7% of the Europe Agreement countries' responses, and 4% of those in CIS countries), a lack of interest in politics in general (4% in Europe Agreement countries) and in the CIS countries, because of the geographical distance (7%).

Croatia has the largest number of people whose positive image of the European Union is based on hopes of general progress, thanks to its aid (23%); this view is also common in Albania (17%).

In Croatia, those interviewed attribute their negative opinion of the Union to a lack of visible results (6%).

To discover the level of public awareness of the European flag in Europe Agreement countries, the interviewees were asked (on being shown a sticker of the European flag) to identify it [Footnote10]. The following replies were all accepted as correct: the European Union, the European Community, the Common Market, the Council of Europe, the European Commission/the European Parliament, Europe, the Phare programme, a specific EU activity or programme.

In this case, 47% of those interviewed gave a correct response, compared to 15% of people who specified a wrong institution (for example: 8% the United Nations, and 2% NATO) and 38% of people interviewed who did not want to, or who could not reply.

Public awareness of the European flag is greatest in Slovenia (69%), Slovakia (64%), the Czech Republic (61%) and in Estonia (54%).

The flag's association with Europe is known least in Lithuania: only 28% of those interviewed giving a "correct" reply; against 18% who thought it is linked to another organization and 55% who replied "don't know".

Of those who replied correctly, the European flag is most frequently associated with the "European Union" (30%) or the "European Community" (12%).

The "European Union" is most often cited in Slovakia (49%), Latvia (37%) and Estonia (36%). The term "European Community" appears most frequently in replies from Slovenia (36%).

People in the Czech Republic and Hungary are those most likely to think that the flag represents the United Nations (10% for the two countries).

2.3 Sources of information on the European Union

In all the countries surveyed, national television is indicated most frequently as the principal source of information on the European Union.

In fact, 83% of citizens in the Europe Agreement countries [Footnote11] and 79% of people in Russia cite national television as the source of information on the EU.

In the other CIS countries surveyed, Russian television (46%) is almost as important a source as the national television of the respective country (49%).

In all countries, the newspapers, radio as well as television of the respective country seem to be primary sources of information on the EU.

Newspapers are a source of information on the EU for 56% of citizens in the Europe Agreement countries (periodicals: 22%) and for 38% of Russians (periodicals: 4%).

Radio, as an information source is listened to by 53% in Europe Agreement countries, and 38% of Russians.

In the CIS countries surveyed (except Russia), 28% of people found information on the European Union in national newspapers and 11% in Russian dailies. National radio is a source of information for 24% of CIS citizens, and Russian radio 9%.

Amongst all the countries surveyed, the top three sources of information (television, newspapers and radio) are used most equally in Estonia. In fact, television was mentioned by 75% of interviewees in this country, radio by 73% and newspapers by 72%.

In the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, national television (85%) is of far greater importance than national newspapers (33%), and similarly in Albania national television (74%) is a lot more important than radio (22%).

People from Poland and Slovenia (91% in each case) are most likely to be informed about the Union by television.

Those most likely to obtain information on the Union from newspapers are those from Slovenia (77%) and Estonia (72%), while radio is of greatest importance in Estonia (73%) and Slovakia (70%).

Readers who find their information on the EU from national periodicals are most common in Slovakia (48%), Poland (30%) the Czech Republic and Estonia (28% in each case).

In all countries, western information sources were only used by a minority for obtaining information on the European Union.

Those most likely to use western information sources are the Albanians : 26% cited western television, 11% the radio and 9% newspapers.

In Slovenia too, western television is used as a major source of information on the EU (25%) and in Slovakia (17%).

Western radio is listened to fairly often in (apart from Albania) Romania and Slovakia (10% for each).

School or university as a source of information on the EU is mentioned most often by the Albanians and Slovaks (10% each), and Slovenes (9%).

Slovaks (18%) and Slovenes (16%) most often cite the workplace as a source of information on the European Union.

The government is seen as being a fairly important source of information in Slovakia (18%), Albania (14%) and Poland (12%).

The information provided by the EU Delegations set up in most countries' capitals, seems to have had the most impact in Slovakia (9%); visits to EU countries, are most frequent for Slovaks and Albanians (6% in both cases), and personal contact with EU citizens plays the greatest role once again in Slovakia (7%) and Poland (6%).

In Russia, nothing apart from the three principal national medias plays an important role.

Amongst the other CIS countries surveyed, in both Belarus (63%) and Kazakhstan (52%) Russian television is a more popular source for information on the EU than national television. Against this, in Georgia (16%) Russian television is - relatively speaking - the least influential (national television: 39%).

The greatest percentage of people to say that they are informed by newspapers is to be found in Belarus: 50% from national newspapers and 18% from Russian newspapers.

The radio is also listened to more in Belarus than in other CIS countries: 46% for national radio and 13% for Russian radio.

Other potential sources of information on the European Union, such as governments, EU delegations, trips to European Union countries or personal contacts, have no real importance in the CIS countries surveyed. The only exception to this is Georgia where

16% of people interviewed gave personal contact with citizens of the European Union as an information source.

One point that must be underlined is the relatively low use that the inhabitants of the Baltic states make of Russian media. The Lithuanians are those least likely to be informed from Russian sources: only 5% declared that television was a source, and the figure was only 2% for both radio and newspapers. But Russian television is a source of information often used by Latvians (27%) and Estonians (20%). This is almost certainly due to the large numbers of ethnic Russians in these countries.

2.4 Referendum on membership of the EU and NATO.

Since the fall of communist regimes in Central Europe, governments in most of the countries undergoing the transition towards democracy have increased their efforts to bring their country closer to the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The ultimate goal of these efforts for many Europe Agreement countries is to become a member of these two organizations so as to reduce the possibility of any future return to domination by Russia, both economically and militarily.

To find out the peoples' opinion on this, two questions were asked for the first time within the context of the Eurobarometer survey in the ten Europe Agreement countries. The first concerns how citizens would vote in the event of referendum on their country joining the European Union and the second is on joining NATO.

In Europe Agreement countries as a whole, an overwhelming majority [Footnote12] of citizens in the event of a referendum would vote for joining the European Union (90% compared to 10%) and for joining NATO (82% against 18%).

More precisely, "If there were to be a referendum tomorrow on the question of (our country's) membership into the European Union, would you personally vote for or against membership?", 60% of those questioned in the ten countries would vote for membership, 7% would vote against, 16% remain undecided at the time of the survey, and 7% said they would not vote at all.

At the time of this survey, the greatest percentage of those interviewed to support their country's membership of the European Union is to be found in Romania (70%) and Poland (68%).

The largest numbers who are against membership are in Estonia and Slovenia (14% respectively) and the smallest are in Romania (2%) and Poland (5%).

The greatest numbers of those undecided are in Estonia (30%), Latvia (26%) and Lithuania (25%).

Regarding membership of NATO, those interviewed from the Europe Agreement countries replied in the following way: 53% would vote for membership, 12% against, 16% remain undecided and 7% said they would not vote.

As in the case of a possible vote on membership of the European Union, two countries clearly stand out from themselves in their voting pattern: Poland and Romania. In fact, 69% of Poles would vote for joining NATO and only 6% would not (in absolute terms: 92% compared to 8%) and 64% of people interviewed in Romania would say "yes" to membership as opposed to 4% who would say "no" (95% against 5% in absolute terms).

The greatest number of those against membership are to be found in Bulgaria (26%), the Czech Republic (23%) and Hungary (22%).

Those most undecided as to how they would vote are in Latvia and Estonia (29% in each case).

There is a significant difference in these last two countries between how the whole of the population would vote, and how those who have the right to vote would. In fact, in Estonia, those who say they have the right to vote are more likely to say "yes" to membership (47%) than all those who were surveyed (39%). In Latvia, to the first question the "yes" vote would be 34% and to the second 30%. This difference is linked to the situation of ethnic minorities in the two countries, many of whom do not enjoy the right to vote. In the event of them being able to vote, they would vote in greater numbers against joining NATO than the ethnic majorities of those countries.

2.5 European integration: who thinks they will win or lose ?

The European Union consistently remains at the forefront of efforts to help the countries of Central Europe and the CIS. The new budget for the Phare programme 1995 - 1999 alone is a figure of 1.08 billion Ecus per annum. The 1995 budget for the Tacis programme reached a total of 0.47 billion Ecus.

Trade between the European Union and Europe Agreement countries is rapidly expanding, but the balance is still in favour of the European Union. Indeed, the twelve-country Union's 1994 economic surplus from Central European countries of 6.4 billion Ecu is the same as it was in 1993.

In this context, it was important to discover what the citizens in Central Europe and the CIS consider to be the advantages resulting from links between their country and the European Union.

To the question "Who do you think benefits most out of the relationship between (our country) and the European Union", 17% of citizens in Europe Agreement countries declare that it is their country, compared to 17% who feel that it is the European Union, that benefits most. 43% feel the relationship between the two partners has equal benefits on both sides. Thus public opinion in these countries considers the relationship "balanced".

Amongst the citizens of the Europe Agreement countries, people in the Baltic states more than any others feel that their country benefits the most: 37% of those in Lithuania, 33% in Estonia and 31% in Latvia.

But above all others, as was the case at the time of the previous Central and Eastern Eurobarometer survey, it is the Albanians (58%) who think that their country benefits more from ties with the European Union.

Amongst the CIS countries surveyed, it is in Armenia (33%; +12) that the greatest number of people say that their country would gain more. However in Russia, people are least likely to be of this opinion (7%).

The European Union is seen to be the winner in these relations above all by people surveyed in Russia (37%) and in Belarus (34%).

The greatest number to feel that the relations between the two parties are equally beneficial are the people interviewed in Romania (58%), Croatia and Slovakia (44% in both cases).

In the ten Europe Agreement countries, the question was asked, "who do you think is likely to benefit or lose out as ties between (our country) and the European Union increase?" A majority of citizens in these countries (62%), as was the case with the previous Eurobarometer survey, stated that it would be the private sector that would benefit the most. Other beneficiaries are seen to be the educational system (49%), the armed forces (48%), and the health and social services sector (47%).

The people most optimistic for the future of the private sector were definitely the Poles (73%).

Romanians more than others are more likely to see the positive effects for all sectors, including agriculture.

Those most worried for the future of their farmers are the people interviewed in Slovenia (62%), as well as many of people in the Czech Republic (43%), Estonia (42%) and Poland (41%). Overall, people in Europe Agreement countries are still divided as to whether or not farmers will benefit (32% to 33%).

According to a relative majority of Poles [Footnote13], their Church would also be among the losers.

3. Use and knowledge of languages

Out of thirteen countries of Central Europe (the Europe Agreement countries plus Albania, Croatia, and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia) Polish [Footnote14] is spoken by the most people (35%), followed by Russian (22%) and Romanian (18%).

The most widely known foreign language in these thirteen countries is Russian (20% of those interviewed can speak it), followed by German and English (12% in each case). French is spoken in this region by 4% of people.

Russian is spoken by the largest number of people in the Baltic countries: Latvia (96%), Estonia (83%), and Lithuania (80%). Indeed in Estonia and Latvia more people speak Russian than Estonian or Latvian. Elsewhere, Russian is most widely spoken in the Czech Republic (36%), Slovakia (34%), and Poland (28%).

A knowledge of German is greatest in the Czech Republic (33%), followed by Slovenia (30%), Slovakia (19%), and Croatia (16%).

English is spoken by the largest percentage of people in Slovenia (31%), then Croatia (24%), Albania and Estonia (22% for each).

Romanians (10%) and Albanians (7%) are those most likely to have a knowledge of French. Albania is where the largest percentage of the population can speak Italian (29%).

In the CIS countries surveyed, a knowledge of Russian is, for obvious reasons, extensive: 96% of people speak it; 23% speak Ukrainian.

Russian is top of the list of foreign languages spoken in the CIS countries (28%), followed by Ukrainian (7%) and English (3%).

The predominance of Russian as a foreign language is most apparent in Armenia (78%).

It is also in Armenia where we find the largest percentage of people to speak English (13%).

German is known in Kazakhstan (8%) and Georgia (5%).

In the thirteen countries of Central Europe, 56% of those interviewed cannot speak any foreign language well enough to be able to take part in a conversation.

This group is largest, according to the Central and Eastern Eurobarometer results, in Hungary (79%) and Romania (78%), and smallest in Latvia (11%), Slovenia (13%) and Lithuania (18%).

In the CIS countries surveyed, with the exception of Russia, 21% of people have mastered no language other than their mother tongue. In Russia this figure is 81%.

4. Annexes

4.1 How the poll was done

COORDINATION AND DETAILS OF PARTICIPATING INSTITUTES

Overall co-ordination: DG X.B (EUROBAROMETER) and DG X.C (External Information)

Co-ordination assistance: GfK EUROPE Ad hoc Research

Statistical Data Processing: GfK Data Services Germany

Regional co-ordination: GfK Bulgaria for Albania, Bulgaria and FYROM
AISA for Czech and Slovak Republic
ROMIR for Belarus, European Russia, Georgia, Kazakhstan and Armenia

InstituteContact nameContact details
Department of Sociology
Tirana University
Dora Distria Str.
Tirana, ALBANIA
Teuta StarovaTel/Fax: 355.42.42369
Department of Sociology
Yerevan State University
Yerevan, ARMENIA
Ludmila ArutunianTel: 78852.594648
Fax : 78852.521921
78852.562668 (home fax)
NOVAK
Belinskij str. 16/39
P.O. Box 157
220113 Minsk, BELARUS
A. Vardomatskii Tel: 70172.683902
Fax: 70172.629266
GfK BULGARIA
10 Tzar Osvoboditel Blvd.
1000 Sofia, BULGARIA
Svetoslav SlavovTel: 3592.870.249
Fax: 3592.4920366
AISA
Lesanka 2a, 141
141 00 Praha 4
CZECH & SLOVAK REPUBLIC
Marek BoguszakTel: 422.24245521/5522
Fax: 422.24245523
Saar Poll Ltd.
Box 3336
EEOO90 Tallin, ESTONIA
Andrus SaarTel: 3722.438735
3722.438881
Fax: 3726.312486
Institute for Sociological,
Political and Juridical Research
Partisanska bb, PO box 435
91000, Skopje, FYROM
Jordan JakimovskiTel: 38.991258222
Fax: 38.991361282
Georgian Inst.of Public Opinion
123 Agmashenebeli avenue
380002 Tbilisi, GEORGIA
Merab PachuliaTel: 78832.968679/438881
Fax: 7832.999616
e-mail: paatagsrc.kheta.georgia.su
MODUS
Mazsa ter 2-6
1107 Budapest, HUNGARY
Emöke Lengyel Tel: 361.2607501
Fax: 361.2612945
GILLER Institute
9, Tchaikovski St.
480004 Almay, KAZAKHSTAN
L. Gurevich Tel: 3272.3283866
Fax: 3272.399.895
Latvian Facts
Brivibas Str 106-2
LV1001 Riga, LATVIA
Aigars FreimanisTel: 3712.9348608
3712.9293201
Fax: 3712.274936
Baltic Surveys
47, Didlaukio Str.
2057 Vilnius, LITHUANIA
Rasa AlishauskieneTel: 3702.762790
3702.762462
Fax: 3702.762681
3702.652102
PENTOR
UI, Flory 9m4
00-586 Warsaw, POLAND
Jacek DohnalikTel: 4822.498120
4822.498129
Fax: 4822.498151
4822.493031
Research Team Romania
2, lancu de Hunedoara
bl H6, suite 31, sector 1
Bucharest, ROMANIA
Aura BotorogTel: 40.1.6503770
Fax: 40.1.3110672
ROMIR
2nd Brestskay U,
B 29a, Room 211
123056 Moscow, RUSSIA
Elena BashkirovaTel: 7095.2519801
7095.2615772
Fax: 7095.8827098
7095.8839280
GRAL Marketing
Dunajska 29/iV
61000 Ljubljana, SLOVENIA
Rudi TavcarTel: 38661.311167
Fax: 38661.1323154
SOCIS
12, Shelkovychanaya
Str.Kiev, UKRAINE
Nicolai Churilov Tel: 380.44.2281997
Fax: 380.44.2282297
CEMA
Osnovan 17, XII 1961, godine
41000 Zagreb, Milana Makanca 16
PP. 945, CROATIA
Vlasta FiserTel: 385.1.447240
Fax: 385.1.450166

COORDINATION AND DETAILS OF PARTICIPATING INSTITUTES WHO HANDLED THE "EU LOGO" QUESTION

Overall coordination: DG X.B (EUROBAROMETER) and DG X.C (External Information)

Coordination assistance: GfK EUROPE Ad hoc Research

Statistical data Processing: GfK Data Services Germany

InstituteContact nameContact details
GfK Bulgaria
10 Tzar Osvoboditel Blvd.
1000 Sofia
BULGARIA
Svetoslav SlavovTel: 3592.870249
Fax: 3592.4920366
Vilmoruss
Saltoniskiu 58
2600 Vilnius
ESTONIA, LATVIA AND LITHUANIA
Vladas GaidysTel: 370.2.624083
Fax: 370.2.610989
GfK Hungary
Visegradi u.31
H-1132 BudapestHUNGARY
Ritta Vella Tel: 361.270 2454
Fax: 361.120 1776
GfK Poland
ul. Swietokrzyska 14
PL-00-050 Warszawa
POLAND
Elzbieta LenczewskaTel: 48.22261073
Fax: 48.22266933
IRSOP Romania
Ministerului 2-4
70700 Bucareste
ROMANIA
Dr. Petre DatculescuTel:401.6156641
Fax: 401.3120382
ITEO Slovenia
Ajdovscina 4
61000 Ljubljana
SLOVENIA
Slavko MihelicTel: 386.1.1314122
Fax: 3866.1.314528
(In Czech Republic
AISA
Lesanska 2a
CR-141 00 Praha 4
CZECH REPUBLIC
Daniel ProchzaskaTel: 422.2.4245521
Fax: 422.2.4245523
(In Slovak Republic
GfK Praha
Ujezd 40/450
118 01 Praha 1
SLOVAK REPUBLIC
Stanislav ZahradnicekTel:42.2.539126
Fax: 42.2.24510283

4.2 Technical specifications - Introduction

Between 30th October and 29th November 1995, the institutes listed above conducted the sixth wave of the Central and Eastern EUROBAROMETER (CEEB) on behalf of the European Commission, Directorate General X for Information, Communication, Culture, Audiovisual, Survey Research (EUROBAROMETER) Unit, in co-operation with the External Information Unit of the same Directorate-General.

Compared to CEEB5 (Autumn 1994) one more country was added, namely Croatia. All EUROBAROMETER data are stored at the Zentral Archiv (Universität Köln, Bachemer Strasse 40, D - 5000 Köln 41). They are at the disposal of all institutes which are members of the European Consortium for Political Research, of the Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research (Michigan) and all those interested in social science research.

4.3 Details on sampling

A total of 19 countries in Central and Eastern Europe were surveyed : Albania, Armenia, Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Lithuania, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM), Poland, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia and Ukraine. In total 20.278 citizens aged 15 years and over were interviewed face-to-face in their private residences in Central and Eastern Europe as a whole. The survey was fully nationally-representative. Only in Georgia the region of Abkahzia could not be covered due to the state of war. In Croatia in some parts of the country (Slavonia, Dalmatia, Lika, Kordun, Banija) some areas were substituted by corresponding localities in the same region.

As with Central and Eastern EUROBAROMETER nos. 2, 3, 4 and 5 each institute adopted a multi-stage random probability sample design. There were slight variations in each country's sample design to take account of its individual characteristics and population structure. In each of the 19 countries (with the exception of Georgia and Croatia) surveyed, interviews were conducted throughout every region within its national boundaries.

SAMPLING POINTS

CountryQuantity
Albania150
Armenia 100
Belarus 114
Bulgaria 181
Croatia 40
Czech Republic 193
Estonia 171
FYROM 110
Georgia 108
Hungary 100
Kazakhstan 100
Latvia 125
Lithuania 121
Poland 251
Romania 110
Russian Federation 140
Slovakia 182
Slovenia 198
Ukraine 120
TOTAL

2.614

The sampling points for each country were selected, in the first instance, via a division into its major socio-economic areas. A list of these is appended. Within each of these areas smaller electoral or administrative districts were randomly selected and, taking into account such factors as the relative size of the population living in rural and urban settlements, the number and distribution of sampling points in each of these districts was finalised.

In general ten interviews were conducted around each sampling point, with individuals being selected via one of four main methods, these being :

(I) Double clustered random address sample + next birthday in the household

(II) Contact randomly selected from a list of the electorate. In most cases such lists were no more than three years old.

(III)Random selection of addresses from published, or specially commissioned lists, with individuals being selected via a Kish matrix or other random method.

(IV) Random route from a selected starting point (often the central bus station in larger settlements) with individuals again being selected via a Kish matrix or other random method.

Quite understandably, in many instances address or electoral data was not available for the population below the age of enfranchisement, and therefore quotas were imposed to ensure that the correct number of 15-17 year olds were interviewed.

The maximum number of interviews in any individual household was one. All interviews were conducted face-to-face by fully-trained interviewers in people's homes.

In each country the final sample was representative of the adult population aged 15+ years (with the exception of Abkahzia in Georgia; the Far North and inaccessible regions of Siberia in the Russian Federation; the islands of Saarema and Hiiumaa in Estonia and some areas in Slavonia, Dalmatia, Lika, Kordun, Banija in Croatia).

4.4 Realisation of fieldwork

CountryFieldwork Number of respondents
Albania13 November - 24 November1005
Armenia 01 November - 10 November 1000
Belarus 06 November - 27 November 1045
Bulgaria 04 November - 11 November 1098
Croatia 17 November - 24 November 1000
Czech R. 01 November - 19 November 1091
Estonia 06 November - 17 November 1000
FYROM 07 November - 16 November 1000
Georgia 07 November - 23 November 1059
Hungary 11 November - 27 November 1004
Kazakhstan 07 November - 21 November 1000
Latvia 10 November - 24 November 1094
Lithuania 10 November - 18 November 1003
Poland 25 November - 28 November 1004
Romania 08 November - 22 November 1147
Russ. Fed. 02 November - 15 November 1178
Slovakia 01 November - 07 November 1173
Slovenia 23 November - 29 November 1178
Ukraine 30 October - 19 November 1199
TOTAL30 October - 29 November

20.278

4.5 Weighting of data

Compared to CEEB 5, a lot of progress was made thanks to the use of an interlocking matrix age/education. This was the case for Armenia, Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Lithuania, Romania, Russia, Ukraine, Georgia.

Slovenia and Kazakhstan were also weighted in this way, but as the distribution of age did not fully correspond to the requirements; age was used on top of the matrix to guarantee the distribution.

For the countries Albania, Croatia, Estonia, Latvia, FYROM and Poland, no statistical data were available for this matrix. In these cases the weighting according to age and education was carried out separately.

It's important to notice that the weighting was done much more efficiently this year because the matrix age/education was given in advance so that the institutes had to respect this.

The overall results for Central and Eastern Eurobarometer as a whole were weighted according to each country's 15+ population.

The data for each country's population by sex, age, education and region was prepared by the participating institutes :

CountryPOPULATION
TOTAL (15+yrs)
PROPORTION OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE
POPULATION (in %)
Albania2.702.4001.00
Armenia2.633.300 0.97
Belarus 7.814.759 2.90
Bulgaria 6.878.285 2.55
Croatia 3.844.000 1.42
Czech Republic 8.324.261 3.09
Estonia 1.188.775 0.30
FYROM 1.353.959 0.50
Georgia 4.042.061 1.50
Hungary 8.244.274 3.05
Kazakhstan 11.217.539 4.16
Latvia 2.051.746 0.77
Lithuania 2.842.640 1.05
Poland 29.393.330 10.91
Romania 17.813.891 6.61
Russian Federation 113.043.000 41.96
Slovak Republic 4.080.423 1.51
Slovenia 1.560.938 0.57
Ukraine 40.351.000 14.97
TOTAL 269.389.581

100 %

4.6 Areas covered

ALBANIA
Tirana
Northern
Central
Southern

ARMENIA
Ararat
Sevan
Shirak
Lori
Yerevan
Siunik
Aghstev

BELARUS
Brest
Vitebsk
Gomel
Grodno
Minsk (city)
Minsk (region)
Mogiljov

BULGARIA
Varna
Lovetch
Sofia-city
Sofia-region
Plovdiv
Bourgas
Haskovo
Montana
Rousse

CROATIA
Greater Zagreb
North Croatia
Slavonia
Lika, Kordun, Banovina
Istria, Primorje
Gorski Kotar
Dalmatia

CZECH REPUBLIC
Prague
Central Bohemia
Southern Bohemia
Western Bohemia
Northern Bohemia
Eastern Bohemia
Southern Moravia
Northern Moravia

ESTONIA
North-West
North-East
South-East
South-West
West

FYROM
Skopje
Tetovo
Shtip Region
Bitola
Ohrid Region
Kumanova Region
Along Varpar Regiona

GEORGIA
Tbilisi
Ajara
Kolkheti
Kartl-Kakheti
Kvemo Kartli
Meskhet-Javakheti
Samachablo

HUNGARY
Central
Northern Hungary
Northern Great Plain
Southern Great Plain
Southern Transdanubia
Northern Transdanubia

KAZAKHSTAN
Capital
South
Central
East
North
West

LATVIA
Riga
Vidzeme
Zemgale
Kurzeme
Latgale

LITHUANIA
Zemaitija
Aukstaitija
Suvalkija
Dzukija
Vilnius/ SE Lithuania

POLAND
Central
Eastern
Malopolska
Silesia
North-western
Wielkopolska

ROMANIA
Crisana
Maramuresh
Banat
Oltenia
Muntenia
Dobrudja
Moldavia
Ardeal
Bucuresti

RUSSIAN FEDERATION
North & Center (Northern+North-Western
+Kaliningrad+Central+Volgo-Vjatski)
South of European Part of Russia
(Tsentralno Chernozjemny+ Povolzhsky
+ North-Caucasian)
Ural & West Siberia
East Siberia & Far East

SLOVAK REPUBLIC
Bratislava
Central Slovakia
Eastern Slovakia
Western Slovakia

SLOVENIA
Gorensjka (NW)
Primorska (W + SW)
Osrednja Slovenija (W. Central)
Koroska in Savinjska (E. Central)
Dolenjska in Posavje (South East)
Stajerska in Prekmurje (North East)

UKRAINE
Kiev
Northern
Central
North-Eastern
North-Western
Eastern
Western
South Western
Southern
Crimea
South-East

4.7 Backtranslation

As all questionnaires were backtranslated completely last year (CEEB 5), we limited backtranslation this year (CEEB 6) to the new questions that were added. A couple of differences were discussed with the appropriate institutes and an acceptable solution was found in all cases. For newcomer Croatia, a complete backtranslation was carried out. Hence, the results of CEEB 5 and CEEB 6 can be fully compared.

4.8 Gfk EUROPE ad hoc research

GfK EUROPE Ad hoc Research, located in Brussels, is GfK's co-ordination centre for all international ad hoc research with a turnover of over 100 million ECU in 1994. It is present in most countries of the European Union, in all former EFTA-countries, and in major Central and Eastern European countries, making 23 countries in total. Outside Europe, GfK is represented in the USA, Canada, Japan, Hong Kong and Australia. The total turnover of GfK is about 200 million ECU making it number 4 in the world. Almost all the institutes are owned by the German mother company, GfK AG, founded in 1929.

GfK, through Dr. Rudolf Bretschneider, Managing Director of Fessel und GfK Austria (1959), was one of the first western research companies to found institutes in Hungary (1989), Poland (1990), Czech Republic (1991), Slovakia (1993) and Bulgaria (1994). Agreements have been reached with companies in Romania (1995), Croatia (1995), FYROM (1995) and Slovenia. All together more than 200 researchers are employed and trained by GfK in Central and Eastern Europe.

GfK has carried out several studies for the EU amongst which are the Standard EUROBAROMETER (in Denmark since 1989), the Consumer Confidence Barometer (in Germany since 1980, in Austria, Belgium, the Netherlands, United Kingdom since 1995) and several other ad hoc studies.


4.9 Footnotes

(1)The "Central and Eastern Eurobarometer" is the largest multi-country survey of the region in terms of the number of countries covered and the time-period covered by its trends.[Back to text]

(2)Results are for the PERMANENT RESIDENTS of these countries, not the ethnic groups of the region. Thus, in particular, "Estonians" and "Latvians" include all ethnic minorities permanently resident in those countries, regardless of whether they have the right to vote.[Back to text]

(3)The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia is listed under as FYROM in the annexes.[Back to text]

(4)For the purposes of this report, the countries surveyed fall into three groups:

1)Europe Agreement countries: Bulgaria, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia (at the time of the fieldwork the latter had initialled the agreement)

2)Albania, Croatia, and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia

3)The CIS countries surveyed: Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Russia and the Ukraine. [Back to text]

(5)The Eurobarometer survey in Poland began five days after the second round of presidential elections.[Back to text]

(6)Note that the sample size for Slovakia was smaller than the usual thousand persons interviewed until the previous Central and Eastern Eurobarometer (CEEB): 471 for CEEB1, 354 for CEEB2, 734 for CEEB3, 684 for CEEB4.[Back to text]

(7)In Central and Eastern EUROBAROMETER No.3, an open-ended question was asked to clarify what people understood by the term "human rights". It showed that individual human rights concerns are expressed primarily in terms of social and economic hardship, while those saying there is respect for human rights mainly give more conventional, political explanations, such as their relatively newly-won freedoms.[Back to text]

(9)This "change" is not so important regarding the "real" difference in the attitudes of those questioned. [Back to text]

(10)The question on the European flag was not included in the main questionnaire of the Central and Eastern Eurobarometer no. 6 to prevent the survey's subject from influencing the response of those being interviewed. For more details,see the annexes. [Back to text]

(11)Results for Europe Agreement countries as a whole in chapter 2.3 do not include the Baltic States, as the question in the Baltic States was asked in a slightly different way, due to the importance of the Russian media there. [Back to text]

(12)Only the replies "for" or "against" have been taken into account, not the "undecided" or "don't knows", in this paragraph. [Back to text]

(13)The category "church" as a possible response, was only mentioned in Poland. [Back to text]

(14) On average according to the population of each country surveyed. [Back to text]

Last update: 01/02/2012 | Top