The EU Commission has just published a special survey on how Irish citizens voted in the second Irish Lisbon Treaty Referendum. The report shows that nearly 1 in 4 cited economic reasons for voting yes (23% in 2009 versus 9% in 2008). Of all the reasons given, this showed the single biggest change in voting yes. Overall the research shows that 27% of yes voters felt that the Treaty was in Ireland's best national interests.
Commenting on the new report Martin Territt, Director of the European Commission Representation in Ireland, said: "This research sheds light on why Ireland changed its mind so abruptly from a "No" in 2008 to a determined "Yes" a year later. It is reassuring to see that so many people identify membership of the European Union under the Lisbon Treaty with Ireland's political and economic interests.
"We should note that people felt they had a better understanding of the issues at hand with the Treaty. In 2008 research showed that 22% of no voters based their decision on a lack of information. This fell to only 4% in the second referendum."
The Eurobarometer shows that the single biggest reason for a no vote was a perceived loss of sovereignty (17%). Lack of trust in politicians was also an issue with 10% giving this as a reason for voting no (up from 6%).
Other key findings of the Flash Eurobarometer 284 survey:
Outcome: rather high turnout (59%), 67.1% votes in favour.
Why people voted "Yes":
• They considered the Treaty to be in Ireland's best interests (economically, politically, diplomatically) - total of 77%
Why people voted "No":
• They believed the Treaty was a threat to Irish sovereignty and neutrality (23%)
• They distrusted politicians (10%)
Why people did not vote:
• They were too busy (46%)
• They were turned off by the campaigns (40%)
Why people changed their votes to "Yes" in 2009 from "No" or abstention in 2008:
• The support basis of the Treaty expanded mainly due to increased information and communication (29%); this made citizens feel more engaged in the debate on the Treaty (21%)
• The economic crisis and recession illustrated the Economic importance of Europe (25%)
Where did people obtain information about the Treaty:
• Channels: television, newspapers and the radio were most popular (over 39% each)
• Sources: people relied on the Irish government, family and acquaintances, political parties and the Referendum Commission for information about the Treaty (over 24% each)
Did the information campaigns work?
• Clear evidence: in 2008, 67% of the respondents found the "No" campaign to be most convincing, while in 2009 the same percentage found the "Yes" campaign to be most convincing
Sociodemographic profile of voters:
• Typical "Yes" voter: male, over 55, with over 20 years of education, from a metropolitan area, or self-employed
• Typical "No" voter: female, between 18 and 24, still in education, from a rural area, or a manual worker
Possible lessons to be learned:
• Lack of (proper) information empowered the "No" campaign and lead to rejection
• More information and debate enlarged the support basis of the Treaty
• The economic crisis emphasized the importance of EU integration and support
The survey was undertaken by Gallup between 3 and 7 October 2009. A sample of 2,000 random Irish voters above the age of 18 were interviewed by telephone for their opinions on the question in matter.
To view the full survey please go to: http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/flash/fl_284_en.pdf