The consequences of the heat wave 2003 were probably underestimated in
many countries, at least those based on the first estimates. This excess
mortality affects vulnerable groups, particularly those who are old or ill.
Identification of risk factors is a priority if the necessary prevention
actions are to be implemented. The next few decades will be marked by the
convergence of three events that will transform the exceptional circumstances
of 2003 into a recurrent risk that must be considered as a priority in the EU
health policies.
These three events are population trends, air pollution and global warming.
- Population trends: as life expectancy increases, there will be increasing
numbers of highly vulnerable people aged 80 years and over. Human population is
aging worldwide and that the proportion of those aged over 60 will double in
the next 30 years.
This aging trend is most marked in industrialised countries, particularly in
Europe.
- Air pollution played an undeniable role in 2003.
The respective roles of temperature and ozone in the excess mortality are
difficult to assess. The relationship between ozone pollution and excess
mortality was estimated to be between 3% and 85% in nine French towns. The
reason for this high heterogeneity between towns remains unclear, and demands
further study.
- Analysis of long term meteorological trends carried out in recent years
underlines that global warming is a reality, and that more heat waves are
highly likely to occur in the future.
It will no longer be possible to express surprise at these climatic events and
their consequences. We must reinforce policies for forecast, alert and
prevention.
Which was the mortality impact of the 2003 heat wave?
The cumulated excess mortality during summer 2003 has been assessed by the
project
Etude de
l'impact de la canicule d'août 2003 sur la population européenne,
coordinated by the INSERM, Montpellier, France, at the request of the European
Commission. The study covers sixteen countries. The numbers of deaths are
available for each day by gender, age and region (NUTS 2), since January 1st
1998, i.e. 19 098 574 non-empty cells for the daily number of deaths.
To be able to compare the years and European countries with very different
population sizes, the daily death frequency in relation to the yearly total
number of deaths was calculated. The Project defined standard boundaries. An
analysis of the reference period - 1998-2002 - shows that the day only explains
between 2% and 3% of the variance in deaths observed during the summer period,
whereas the year of observation and the country each explain between 5% and
6%.
Three main mortality peaks are apparent during summer 2003: the peak on 13
June, the double peak on 16-21 July and lastly the peak on 12-13 August which
seems exceptionally pronounced. A persistent excess mortality at the end of
June and during September was observed. Out of a total of 1 952 summer days
corresponding to the sixteen countries studied, 147 exceed the boundaries
marking the high extreme values, i.e. 7.5% of the total. Fifty days exceed the
boundaries marking the exceptional values. In total, more than 80 000
additional deaths were recorded in 2003 in the twelve countries concerned by
excess mortality compared to the 1998-2002 period. Whereas 70 000 of these
additional deaths occurred during the summer, still over 7 000 occurred
afterwards. Nearly 45 000 additional deaths were recorded in August alone, as
well as more than 11 000 in June, more than 10 000 in July and nearly 5 000 in
September. The mortality crisis of early August extended over the two weeks
between 3 and 6 August; 15 000 additional deaths were recorded in the first
week and nearly 24 000 in the second. The excess mortality in this second week
reached the exceptional value of 96.5% in France and over 40% in Portugal,
Italy, Spain, and Luxembourg. Excess mortality exceeded 20% in Germany,
Switzerland, and Belgium and 10% in all the other countries. European regional
maps (NUTS 2) outline the early August mortality crisis breaking national
frontiers. The crisis caused major distortions in the gender and age structure
of death. On August 12th in France the proportion of deaths of the over-95s
reached 8.9% of the total, an increase of 46% compared with the expected
figure.
These observations suggest that in addition to the exceptional mortality
crisis, which occurred at the beginning of August 2003 and which was so large
that none could ignore it, there may have been a sequence of minor crises,
which passed almost unnoticed. Yet, the cumulative result over the whole summer
period can globally be just as significant. In France and Italy the cumulated
excess mortality from 1 June to 30 September, 2003 (+19 490 and +20 089 deaths,
respectively) have different accumulating profiles. These results suggest that
centralising daily deaths on sufficiently large scale, including grouping
regions or countries with small populations, should improve the monitoring of
summer excess mortality potentially due to global warming.
Source: European Union Project Etude de l'impact de la
canicule d'août 2003 sur la population européenne
The regions most affected lie in a south-west north-east axis, from the Algarve
in Southern Portugal to Westphalia in Germany. A secondary axis starts in
Southern England and continues towards Latium in Central Italy and towards
Croatia. The most significant mortality focal spots are in France
(Île-de-France and the neighbouring region of Centre), where mortality recorded
between 3 and 16 August is double that expected. Six regions—two in Southern
Portugal (Algarve and Alentejo) and four in France to the west and east of the
Île-de-France and Centre (Pays-de-la-Loire, Poitou-Charentes, Burgundy and
Franche-Comté)—recorded a very high excess mortality during these two weeks
(between 65% and 125%). The south-eastern boundaries of the mortality crisis
are poorly defined as it was not possible to obtain the necessary data in
Bosnia-Herzegovina or other countries of the former Yugoslavia.
Source: European Union Project Etude de l'impact de la
canicule d'août 2003 sur la population européenne
According to most of the previous studies, the potential mortality impact of
heat waves is most likely data and method-driven. Those national studies
suggest that the number and magnitude of excess deaths is highly sensitive to
the reference period, the time of studied, the choice of age groups and
geographical variations. In short, a comparison of the various national studies
of the magnitude of 2003, excess mortality across countries becomes extremely
difficult due to five major reasons: (1) no universal definitions of a heat
wave and different durations of heat waves; (2) different methods used to
estimate the magnitude of excess mortality; (3) different period of time
studied; (4) different age selections; and (5) different geographic
description. No standardized estimates across European countries have been made
for the 2003 heat wave event (
Kovats and Ebi
2006). To make comparisons of excess mortality in 2003 summer period
possible, the foremost pathway is to have the same period of time studies for
estimating the excess mortality to the dataset. Second, an appropriate method
of estimation shall be used and standardized. Third, when compared to different
age groups of excess mortality, the truncation of age groups shall be
consistent. Last, a single uniform breakdown of geographic units shall be used
for a comparison of excess mortality, not with a city to a country, vice
versa.
The EU publication
Eurosurveillance
has provided a special study about updates and additional context. According to
the report in early 2004, an estimated 22 080 excess deaths occurs in England
and Wales, France, Italy and Portugal during and immediately after the heat
waves of the summer of 2003. To these should be added 6 595-8 648 excess deaths
in Spain, of which approximately 54% occurred in August, and 1 400-2 200 in the
Netherlands, of which an estimated 500 occurred during the heat wave of 31
July-13 August.
Data for Italy, provided here for the cities of Bologna, Milan, Rome, and
Turin, are compatible with the earlier estimate that 3 134 excess deaths
occurred in the 21 Italian regional capitals during the period 1 June-15
August; the Italian National Institute of Statistics however, reported an
excess of 19 780 deaths country-wide during June-September 2003 as compared to
2002.
Reports elsewhere indicate that approximately 1 250 heat-related deaths
occurred in Belgium during the summer of 2003, that there were 975 excess
deaths during June-August in Switzerland and 1 410 during the period August
1-24 in Baden-Württemberg, Germany. At this point, it seems reasonable to
speculate that with evidence of heat wave-associated deaths beyond England and
Wales, France, Italy, and Portugal, the previously published estimate of 22 080
early August excess deaths should be revised upward by at least 50% for all of
western Europe, and by 100% or more if heat events that occurred during June
and July 2003 are also taken into account.
Experts employed a variety of methods to estimate the number of excess deaths
during and just after the 2003 heat episodes and to relate daily death counts
to weather, to concentrations of air pollutants, and to demographic and social
characteristics. Indeed, the varying emphases and methods demonstrated by the
six national contributors provide complementary evidence of what happened in
2003, and to whom. While the absence of uniform methods does limit
between-country comparisons of the health impact of the 2003 heat waves, these
reports taken together suggest that weather alone does not explain the varying
tolls of excess death within and between countries.
All reports demonstrate that the mortality impact of the 2003 heat wave was
greatest on the very old: for example, excess mortality in France was estimated
at 20% for those aged 45-74 years, at 70% for the 75-94 year age group, and at
120% for people over 94 years. There was no evidence of excess mortality in
infants and children in any of the six reports. Among the elderly in France,
Portugal and Italy, the three countries which stratified deaths by sex, rates
were higher in females.
Investigators in Rome and Turin calculated rates of excess death as a function
of socioeconomic level. They report that the greatest excess was in people
living in areas of the lowest socioeconomic level, and suggest that finding may
be upwardly biased, due in part to the phenomenon that those who have the means
to do so leave Italian cities in summer, leading to an overestimate of the
denominator for economically advantaged elderly people resident in the city in
summer.
It has been observed that few deaths during heat waves are declared to be due
to hyperthermia, heatstroke and other classic heat-related illnesses. Reports
from both France and Portugal observe that in 2003, deaths certified as caused
by ambient heat constituted an important proportion of the death excess; in
France, 2 852 of 11 891 (24%) excess deaths among people over 74 years were
medically certified as directly heat-related.
Between-city comparisons offer insight into the influence on deaths during heat
waves of air pollution, population adaptation, and community preparedness. In
Portugal, August forest fires led to a reported 18 accidental casualties:
presumably the attendant air pollution may also have had an impact on
short-term mortality. Coincident to the high temperatures, elevated
concentrations of ground-level ozone and PM10 were recorded in London and the
south east of England, those areas of England and Wales where excess mortality
was most in evidence. In France, varying concentrations of ground-level ozone
in cities subject to differing meteorological circumstances has allowed
investigators to assess the joint effects of ozone and heat: these appear to be
additive; while the apportionment of deaths to heat versus ozone differed
markedly between cities, it appears that for France overall, during the period
3-17 August 2003, heat had the preponderant impact on mortality.
Are those who die during heat waves already near death, with extreme heat
advancing the date of their demise by only a few days to weeks, and thus
creating a compensatory deficit in expected deaths during the days following
the heat event?
US investigators have suggested so, and the very high rates of excess death
in Europe during 2003 among the very old tend to support that concept. However,
while deaths for all ages in England and Wales declined by 4% between 24-29
August when compared with expected numbers, there was no evidence of mortality
displacement in France or Spain, neither during late August, nor during
September, October, and November.
From the European Union Canicule
Project:
• See
Report
on excess mortality in Europe during summer 2003 - EU Canicule Project -
2007
(2 MB)
• See
Summary
of Data Collection - EU Canicule Project - 2007
(127 KB)
From the European Union/WHO EuroHeat Project:
• See
Heat
waves and public health in Europe - 2006
From the Eurosurveillance report:
• See
What
lessons can be learnt from the exceptionally long and severe heat wave
experienced in Europe in 2003? from Gilles Brücker, Director, Institut de
Veille Sanitaire, France
• See
The 2003
European heat waves from Tom Kosatsky, Direction de santé publique,
Montréal
• See
Summary
of the mortality impact assessment of the 2003 heat wave in France
• See
Mortality in
Spain during the heat waves of summer 2003
• See
The
impact of the summer 2003 heat waves on mortality in four Italian
cities
• See
The
effect of the summer 2003 heat wave on mortality in the Netherlands
• See
The
impact of the 2003 heat wave on daily mortality in England and Wales and the
use of rapid weekly mortality estimates
• See
Mortality in
Portugal associated with the heat wave of August 2003: Early estimation of
effect, using a rapid method
From other sources:
• See
The
impact of the 2003 heat wave on mortality and hospital admissions in
England
• See
Mortalidade
em Portugal no Verão de 2003: influência das ondas de calor
(96 KB)
• See
Heat
wave 2003 and mortality in Switzerland
• See
Die Auswirkungen der Hitzewelle 2003 auf die Gesundheit
• See
Impacts of summer 2003 heat wave in Europe
• See
The
heat wave in France in august 2003: consequences on the level of mortality and
on the evolution of the system of production of mortality data
• See
Santé:
rapport public sur la canicule de l'été 2003
• See
Étude des facteurs individuels et des comportements ayant pu influencer la
santé des personnes âgées pendant la vague de chaleur de 2003
• See
Mortality
and displaced mortality during heat waves in the Czech Republic
• See
Vpliv
vro?inskih valov na umrljivost Vro?inski val avgusta 2003 v Sloveniji -
Institute of Public Health of the Republic of Slovenia
(197 KB) (in Slovenian
only)
• See
Effects
of the 2003 European heat wave on the Central Mediterranean Sea: surface fluxes
and the dynamical response
• See
Mortality in
southern England during the 2003 heat wave by place of death