Quarterly national accounts - updated estimate - Statistics Explained
    

Quarterly national accounts - updated estimate

Data extracted on 20 July 2018.

Planned article update: 11 October 2018

Highlights

GDP up by 0.4 % in the euro area and in the EU-28 in the first quarter of 2018.

EU-28, EA-19 and Member States GDP growth rates in the first quarter of 2018

This article presents key messages and data extractions based on Eurostat's updated estimation of quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2018 in the European Union (EU-28) and euro area (EA-19) released on 20 July 2018. This completes a sequence of quarterly estimates of European main national accounts aggregates (including employment) that are produced based on available country data (see previous news releases). Notable revisions for gross fixed capital formation and imports are mostly related to the incorporation of Irish data.

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Euro area and European Union

GDP up by 0.4 % in the euro area and in the EU-28

GDP rose by 0.4 % in the euro area (EA-19) and in the EU-28 during the first quarter of 2018, compared with the previous quarter, according to an updated estimate (see Data sources and availability) published by Eurostat. In the fourth quarter of 2017, GDP grew by 0.7 % in the euro area and by 0.6% in the EU-28.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 2.5 % in the euro are and by 2.4 % in the EU-28 in the first quarter of 2018, after +2.8 % in the euro area and +2.6% in the EU-28 in the previous quarter.

During the first quarter of 2018, GDP in the United States increased by 0.5 % compared with the previous quarter (after +0.7 % in the fourth quarter of 2017). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP rose by 2.8 % (after +2.6 % in the previous quarter).

Figure 1: EU-28, EA-19 and US GDP growth rates 2018Q1 - Source: Eurostat (namq_10_gdp)

GDP growth by Member States

In the first quarter of 2018, Luxembourg (+2.0 %), Poland (+1.6 %) and Latvia (+1.5 %) recorded the highest growth compared with the previous quarter, while GDP decreased in Ireland (-0.6 %) and Estonia (-0.1 %).

Figure 2: EU-28, EA-19 and MS GDP growth rates 2018Q1 - Source: Eurostat (namq_10_gdp)

GDP components and contributions to growth

During the first quarter of 2018, household final consumption expenditure (NPISH included) rose by 0.5 % in both zones (after +0.2 % in the euro area and +0.3 % in the EU-28 in the previous quarter). Gross fixed capital formation rose by 0.3 % in the euro area and by 0.4% the EU-28 (after +1.4 % and +1.3% respectively ). Exports fell by 0.9 % in the euro area and by 0.6 % in the EU-28 (after +2.4 % and +2.1 % respectively). Imports fell by 0.3 % in the euro area and by 0.1% in the EU-28 (after +1.4% and 1.3% respectively).

Household final consumption expenditure had a positive contribution to GDP growth in both the euro area and the EU-28 (+0.3 percentage points - pp in both zones). The contribution of gross fixed capital formation was positive in both the euro and the EU-28 (both +0.1 pp). The change in inventories was also positive for both areas (+0.3 pp). The contribution of the external balance was negative for both the euro area and the EU-28.

Table 1: Growth rates of GDP in volume (based on seasonally adjusted data) 2018Q1 - Source: Eurostat (namq_10_gdp)

Data sources

Eurostat collects GDP data in the framework of ESA 2010. See here for more details. Additional information on the dissemination of ESA 2010 data is available under latest news on the dedicated website and in the database section National accounts (ESA 2010) (na10)

European aggregates are revised at specific release dates. The preliminary flash estimate of GDP growth in the second quarter of 2018 will be released on 31 July 2018 and will be updated on 14 August 2018. The next regular estimates of European aggregates are due on 7 September 2018 (GDP estimate) and 12 September 2018 (employment estimate).

Source data for tables and graphs

The detailed tables of GDP estimate 2018Q1Microsoft Excel 2010 Logo.png are available here.

Context

Quarterly figures on the evolution of gross domestic product (GDP) and its main aggregates are among the most significant indicators of the state of any economy, be it at a national or European level, and are of key interest to users. Typical users of quarterly national accounts (QNA) figures are market analysts, forecasters or economic and monetary policy advisors interested in assessing the state of the current business cycle.

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Annual national accounts (t_nama_10)
Quarterly national accounts (t_namq_10)

Database

Annual national accounts (nama_10)
Quarterly national accounts (namq_10)

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