Federal Statistical Office (DESTATIS)

E 21 "Business indices, seasonal adjustment"

Statistisches Bundesamt

Gustav-Stresemann-Ring 11

65180 Wiesbaden, Germany

This indicator is part of the overall STS indicator system which supports business cycle observation. The objective of the turnover index is to show the development of the market for goods and services via totals invoiced.

NACE Rev. 2.

Activities of NACE Rev. 2 Groups 47.1 to 47.9, Division 45 and Division 46

The survey on retail trade (NACE Division 47) covers enterprises with an annual turnover of at least EUR 250,000.

The survey on motor vehicle trade (NACE Division 45) covers enterprises with at least 100 persons employed and/or at least 10 million annual turnover.

The survey on wholsale trade (NACE Division 46) covers enterprises with an annual turnover of at least EUR 20,000,000 or at least 100 employees.

The objective of the turnover index is to show the development of the market for goods and services via totals invoiced which corresponds to market sales of goods or services supplied to third parties. Turnover also includes all other charges (transport, packaging, etc.) passed to the customer, even if these charges are listed separately in the invoice. Turnover excludes VAT and other similar deductible taxes directly linked to turnover as well as all duties and taxes on the goods or services invoiced by the unit.

Enterprise.

For NACE Divisions 45, 46 and 47 the statistical unit is the legal unit.

All relevant statistical units in the business register with their main economic activity in one of the NACE Rev. 2 Groups or Divisions mentioned above.

Country as a whole. There are no units located in Germany which are excluded from the sales figures. The turnover index does not cover legally independent affiliates abroad or branches abroad.

Since 1980.

2015 = 100

Index.

Month.

Till 2022: The laws regulating the collection, treatment and dissemination of statistical data are the Council Regulation (EC) No. 1165/98 of 19 May 1998 concerning short-term statistics with implementing acts (e.g. Commission Regulation No 1503/2006 of 28 September 2006 concerning the definitions) as well as the Federal Statistics Act (1987) and the law on statistics on distributive trades and hotels and restaurants (HdlStatG of 2001).

From 2022 onwards: Regulation (EU) 2019/2152 of the European Parliament and of the Council on European business statistics, repealing 10 legal acts in the field of business statistics (EBS-Regulation).

Commission Implementing Regulation 2020/1197 laying down technical specifications and arrangements pursuant to Regulation (EU) 2019/2152 of the European Parliament and of the Council on European business statistics repealing 10 legal acts in the field of business statistic (General Implementing Act). as well as the law on statistics on distributive trades and hotels and restaurants (HdlStatG of 2021). 

NACE Division 45 / 46 relies additionally on the law on statistics on distributive trades and hotels and restaurants (HdlStatG of 2021).

Data sent to Eurostat may contain confidential data to compile the European aggregate.

Confidentiality is guaranteed by section 16 of the Federal Statistics Act. It requires that respondents must be informed about their rights and obligations in providing statistical information. This rule is strictly followed. It also applies to the notification that individual data are only used for statistical purposes and - subject to protection procedures - for scientific purposes.

Furthermore, Chapter V “Statistical Confidentiality” of Regulation (EC) No 223/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council applies.

As regards the confidentiality of data, methods of primary and secondary confidentiality checking have been developed and are being used.

A release calendar containing the precise release dates for the reference periods in the following twelve months is published on the website of destatis.

https://www.destatis.de/SiteGlobals/Forms/Suche/Termine/EN/Terminsuche_Formular.html?nn=43216

Indices are simultaneously released to all parties. The data are available at the database “GENESIS-Online” for all users at the same time.

Identification of internal government access to data before release in accordance with Principle 6.7 of the European Statistics Code of Practice is not applicable.

Data are transmitted to Eurostat at least one day before national dissemination.

Monthly.

Press releases are published by destatis:

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/_node.html

In a quarterly press release, results on the turnover of NACE Rev. 2 division G 46 “wholesale trade; except of motor vehicles and motorcycles” are published.

Indices are published on DESTATIS website www.destatis.de

Indices are also published at the time series database “GENESIS-Online”

https://www-genesis.destatis.de/genesis/online/data?operation=sprachwechsel&language=en

Index numbers are available in unadjusted, working-day and seasonally adjusted form. Additionally, tables show the turnover and the change of rate to the previous quarter and to the corresponding quarter in the year before in selected economic branches. Index numbers are further available at current prices and at constant prices.

Not available.

Data are transmitted to Eurostat.

There is no actual dissemination of documentation on methodology and sources used in preparing statistics.

Standardized quality reports are published on the website of destatis.

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Methods/Quality/QualityReports/Wholesale-Trade-Retail-Trade/einfuehrung.html

The data of German official statistics enjoy a reputation of high reliability in Germany and abroad. Destatis has committed itself to assure and further enhance the level of quality already attained. In order to achieve this task – also in the ESS – the activities of destatis are based on quality guidelines. To assure quality in the long term, destatis applies a variety of systematic quality assurance measures, among others the European Statistics Code of Practice.

A detailed description can be found on destatis website https://www.destatis.de/EN/Methods/Quality/_node.html

Quality checks are done throughout the whole process which, in turn, is evaluated permanently. Meetings with the statistical offices of the Länder are regularly held to share experiences on a common platform. Moreover, DESTATIS has implemented a controlling system to monitor the compliance of transmission deadlines. The results of this controlling mechanism are for internal purposes only and therefore not published.

Main problems that occur in the process of calculating the turnover and volume of sales index are different changing rates of annual values of the monthly survey in the annual survey. Moreover, although purchases by residents of foreign countries must be included in the calculation of consumption in the national accounts, they cannot be covered in the monthly survey.

Main users of turnover indices are the European Commission (Eurostat) as well as the European Central Bank at the international level and the Federal Government, i.e. the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, ministries of the Länder, business associations and interest groupings of various industrial branches at the national level.

Destatis conducts user satisfaction surveys in various sectors of statistics. The Statistical Advisory Committee (Statistischer Beirat) represents the interests of the users of federal statistics and regularly consults with destatis.

Additionally, user satisfaction is measured by the number of monthly visits on specialized publications on the website of destatisand the respective number of printed products sold or downloads, quarterly downloads from the on-line database “GENESIS”, downloads of the Statistical Yearbook sorted by chapters and the number of external queries via the costumer management system.

STS requirements according to EU regulations and national laws are fulfilled.

Main sources for errors/potential for bias in the calculation of the turnover index are induced by survey data, in particular unit/item non-response, over and under coverage, incorrect classified units in the sample frame, implausible data, incorrect signing of the non-response case and inappropriate estimation of missing values.  

Results are final after about 12 months.

The sampling design for monthly statistics in retail is selected according to recognized scientific random sample theory so that statistical results deliver the best possible precision given the sample size. Since the report of 2009 which introduced the classification of activities according to WZ 2008 – the German adaptation of NACE Rev. 2 - an improvement in accuracy could be achieved. Note: The rates of change differ in their absolute values from the rates published in GENESIS. However, the values are consistent with regard to their respective direction. This is due to the fact that these indicators have been calculated without concatenation.

Month = reference month

NACE = Statistical classification of economic activities in the European Community

STD = Standard Deviation

RC = Rate of Change to the same month of the previous year

CV = Coefficient of Variation

For NACE Division 45 and 46 sampling errors are not relevant. However, the relative standard error for current reporting periods is small.

The response is obligatory. Otherwise, fines can be imposed up to EUR 5,000. Non-response is replaced by estimates which are further described in section 18.5. The size-weighted unit-non-response is 13.2% on average for the 12 months of 2022. 

non-response = Size-weighted unit-non-response = Share of estimation in grossed up turnover (%)
For NACE Division 45 and 46 response is obligatory. Otherwise, fines can be imposed up to EUR 5,000.
Still, non-sampling errors occur due to cases of unit and item non-response. Their significance is small as compared to other statistics since missing values are estimated or imputed from administrative data. The size-weighted unit-non-response in Division 45 is 4.7 on average for the four quarters of 2022 and 1.8 for Division 46.

Results are published 30 days after the end of the reference month.

The deadline for respondents is 14 days after the end of the reference month.

Results for Divisions 45 and 46 are published about 60 days after the end of the reference period (t+60).

All publication deadlines are met.

The turnover index for “other service activities” is geographically comparable. However, the comparability between Member States cannot be guaranteed due to different methods applied by Member States.

The turnover index is subject to certain dynamics, especially due to many changes in the composition of reporting firms. Drawing a new sample in 2003 limited the comparability of the monthly statistics over time. However, adequate adjustments lead to similar results despite different samples. Updates of index numbers also take these adjustments into account.

For NACE Division 45 and 46 consistent data is available since 1994.

SBS and STS data (change rates) are coherent to a limited extent only. The reason is, among others, different methods of compiling the respective statistics due to different purposes of SBS and STS statistics. For example, information provided by the company in the annual report may be different from the sum of information provided in the monthly reports as the annual report follows the principles of annual accounting. Furthermore, there are differences in the European definitions.

Still, these limitations have no impact on the validity of the statistics themselves. Basically, the monthly statistics present the economic development in trade whereas the annual survey delivers information on the structure of the enterprises, their economic situation and their earnings.

The monthly statistics on trade are internally coherent.

It is not possible to determine the costs and loads for the turnover index separately. The cost and burden of all STS- indicators in total were transmitted to Eurostat.

The International Standard Cost Model will be used to measure administrative costs by DESTATIS.

The general revision policy adopted by destatis covers routine revisions, major revisions and non-scheduled revisions.

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Methods/Quality/GeneralRevisionsPolicy.html

The national revision policy is the same as for Eurostat data.

Information on tracking vintages are given on the website of the German Central  Bank:

https://www.bundesbank.de/dynamic/action/en/statistics/time-series-databases/time-series-databases/745590/real-time-data?statisticType=BBK_RTD&treeId=113205500

Data are routinely revised every month. Corrections are possible up to 24 months from the reference period. The range of corrections and advance notice of major changes are published in the monthly press release. Benchmarking is not carried out nor intended. The Mean Revision (MR) is 1.18 and the Mean Average Revision (MAR) is 1.47.

For NACE Division 45 and 46:

Data is routinely revised every month. Corrections are possible up to 24 months from the reference period. The range of corrections and advance notice of major changes are published in the monthly press release. The Mean Revision (MR) and the Mean Average Revision (MAR) for 01.2010 to 12.2022:

The data are based on a statistical survey. Approximately 6% of turnover is not covered.

The frame on which the source is based is the national business register (since 2004).

Data are collected via sample. From 2010 onwards, parts of the sample are updated annually (sample rotation). Criteria for stratification are regions (Bundesländer), activity and turnover class of the enterprises.

The strata used are aggregates of 3-digit Groups. Activity is further stratified into a maximum of five turnover classes. The boundaries of the turnover classes, in turn, are separately calculated for each Bundesland and for each activity strata.

NACE Division 45 and 46 is based on a mix-model that combines data from a statistical survey with administrative data. All legal units with at least 100 persons employed and/or at least 10 million in NACE 45 or 20 million in NACE 46 annual turnover (in the business register) are surveyed primarily. Administrative data are used for all other units. Hence, it is a full coverage. Units that are primarily surveyed are selected once a year.

The administrative data source for turnover is the turnover tax advance return by regional tax offices. There are some differences in the definition (e.g. extraordinary income is included) and in the observation unit because of different purposes of collecting the respective data. For instance, some legal units form a tax group and report as one unit. However, their turnover tax advance return must be assigned to the relevant observation unit in the tax group.

Data are collected monthly.

Reporting via electronic media (internet) is obligatory since August 2013. Missing responses are requested by telephone, postal or e-mail reminders.

Two methods to report on-line are provided: IDEV and eSTATISTIK.core. IDEV is a web-based questionnaire. eSTATISTIK.core enables enterprises to extract statistical raw data automatically from their corporate accounting systems and transfer the compiled data via internet to DESTATIS.

Data validation comprises format and file data checks as well as “intra-domain, intra-source checks". The latter includes revision checks, time series checks and inter-data set checks. Plausibility or consistency checks between data available inside and outside DESTATIS are performed occasionally.

Non-response or missing values due to late response are estimated. The values of enterprises that provide late information are estimated as part of the automatic plausibility checks using the relation between the information of the preceding three months and the same month last year. The estimates are replaced by the correct values after the late response is received.

In 2010 three estimation methods had been introduced: S30, S60 and S70. The best estimation method will be identified for each missing value.

S30: The method is suited for enterprises whose turnover has seasonal patterns. Turnover of the same month last year is updated with a trend component which is specific to each enterprise.

S60: Missing turnover values for a specific enterprise are updated with the turnover trend of enterprises from the same NACE Class (4-digit). The turnover trend is defined as the quotient of the current year’s and previous year’s turnover.

S70: This method is suitable for enterprises whose turnover development is comparable with values of the previous month instead of the previous year. Estimation uses the median turnover from one or more previous months.

Estimates for grossing-up to population levels. The raising factors are the reciprocal values of the sampling fractions.

Indices are compiled for turnover (nominal and real). The conversion in constant prices is calculated as a Laspeyres index.

Method of weighting and chaining use the fact that indices for retail trade turnover are self-weighting indices (relation current month value/mean monthly value of the base year*100).

Calendar and seasonal adjustment based on X13 in JDemetra+ 2.2. For NACE Division 45 and 46 Calendar and seasonal adjustments are based on X12-ARIMA.

None.