Croatian Bureau of Statistics

Services Statistics Department

Ilica 3,

10000 Zagreb,

CROATIA

Services turnover index derived from Monthly Report on Trade and Other Services (USL-M form).

Since January 2017, the Croatian Bureau of Statistics has supplemented the quarterly dynamics of conducting this survey with a monthly dynamics of turnover changes in service activities.

The USL-M servey is a continuation of the previous survey (USL-1 form), which was conducted in the quarterly dynamics. In addition to the change in research dynamics, the biggest introduced change is related to the sample selection method.

Monthly index of turnover changes in the service sector is an important economic indicator for short-term monitoring and analysis of economic development whose main purpose is measuring of change dynamics of the phenomenon instead of its level and as input for National account statistics. 

The Regulation on Short-Term Statistics (Annex D) foresees the monitoring of a major part of service activities, with the exception of retail trade for which a separate indicator exists.

In Croatia, these activities which have to be monitored (according to the Annex D),include about 100 thousand, i.e. over 72%, of total number of all business entities which are engaged in service activities and that sector employs more than 58% of total persons in employment in the non-financial business economy. A share of turnover generated by the service sector is also significant, almost 60% of total turnover, while its share in total value added amounts to over 56% (SBS data).

NACE Rev. 2.

The Coverage is as follows:

H  Transportation and storage

H 49 Land transport and transport via pipelines

H 50 Water transport

H 51 Air transport

H 52 Warehousing and support activities for transportation

H 53 Postal and courier activities

I Accommodation and food service activities

I 55  Accommodation

I 56  Food and beverage service activities

J Information and communication

J 58 Publishing activities

J 59 Motion picture, video and television programme production, sound recording and music publishing activities

J 60 Programming and broadcasting activities

J 61 Telecommunications

J 62 Computer programming, consultancy and related activities

J 63 Information service activities

L Real estate activities

L 68 Real estate activities

M Professional, scientific and technical activities

M 69 Legal and accounting services + M 702 Management consulting services

M 71 Architectural and engineering activities; technical testing and analysis

M 73 Advertising and market research

M 74 Other professional, scientific and technical activities

N Administrative and support service activities

N 77 Rental and leasing activities

N 78 Employment activities

N 79 Travel agency, tour operator reservation services and related activities

N 80 Security and investigation activities

N 81 Service to buildings and landscape activities

N 82 Office administrative, office support and other business support activities.

Indices are not published separately for industries Air transport (51) and Postal and courier activities (53) but these are included in Transport and storage (H) and in Other services total.

Statistical variable which is provided is turnover. Information is collected on turnover (excluding VAT) for the reference month and for the same month of previous year.

STS definition on turnover is used. Turnover is defined as a value of all goods sold and services provided on the market during a month, irrespective of whether paid for or not.

Business entities report their total turnover, i.e. turnover from their main activity as well as from their secondary activities.

Turnover covers flows during the calendar month.

Units of statistical observation for which data are provided are enterprises.

The target population are business entities (legal units, tradesmen and free lances) which main activity is one of the activities that are proposed by the STS requirement - Annex D (listed under 3.3), regardless on their size.

The frame for identifying units for the population is the Statistical Business Register.

The size of population in 2022 is 108808 units.

Sample covers 8825 units (8,1% of total population).

Geographical area covered: Republic of Croatia

For monthly series the first period for which turnover index for services was compiled is the first month of 2010. 

For all data series, monthly data are available from 2010 and quarterly from 2000.

Since January 2017, the Croatian Bureau of Statistics has supplemented the quarterly dynamics of conducting this survey with  monthly dynamics of turnover changes in service activities.

Administrative data source was used for compilation indices for other service activities for previous periods (2000-2010) for quarterly series.

Statistical survey which is data source for this indicator has been carried out from the first quarter of 2011 for most of the service activities, except for Distributive trades (NACE Division G45 and G46) and Hotels and restaurants (Section I) for which statistical surveys have been carried out from the first quarter of 2000. 

Base (reference) year: 2015.

The weights are also based on 2015.

The variable collected is turnover data expressed in thousand kuna.

Only index numbers are disseminated as a result of the survey.

Data are collected in reference to period of the month.

Legal basis:         

Law on Official Statistics (NN, 25/20) and annual programs on statistical surveys.

Council Regulation No 1165/98/EC of 19/05/98, concerning short-term statistics

European Parliament and Council Regulation No. 1158/2005 of 06/07/2005, amending Council Regulation (EC) No 1165/98 concerning short-term statistics

Commission Regulation No 588/2001/EC of 26/03/2001,  implementing Council Regulation (EC) No 1165/98 concerning short-term statistics

Methodology of short-term business statistics, Theme: Industry, Trade and Services, ISSN 1725-0099, European Commission, Luxembourg 2006

Recommendations for Publishing of STS data, Eurostat, 2009

Regulation (EC) No 1893/2006 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 20 December 2006 establishing the Statistical Classification of Economic Activities NACE Rev. 2 and amending Council Regulation (EEC) No 3037/90 and certain EC Regulations on specific statistical domains

Obligation on units to provide data is compulsory based on Law on Official Statistics. Fees for non-response are regulated by the Law on Official Statistics, but not really used in practice.

Data set for 28 series are regularly transmitted to Eurostat on monthly.

National legislation:

Under the Official Statistics Act (NN No. 25/20), the CBS can not publish, or otherwise make available to any individual or organization, statistics that would enable the identification of data for any individual person or legal entity. Individual data are strictly confidential and must not be published or reported.  

European legislation:

Regulation (EC) No 223/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council, of 11 March 2009, on the transmission of data subject to statistical confidentiality to the Statistical Office of the European Communities.

Confidential data are treated according to policy rules (see point 7.1).

Data are nationally published only on the level at which they are not confidential.

For certain service activities (on the level on which data are to be published) in which an observation is based on a very few dominating enterprises data are consider confidential and they are not nationally published. Mark (z) is used instead of the real number. This is the case applied for NACE activities H51 and H53.

All data on the levels proposed as obligatory by the Annex D of STS Regulation are transmitted to Eurostat. Confidential data are marked with the confidentiality flag.

Data are disseminated nationally with a predefined Release Calendar publicly accessible.       

A release schedule for the coming year, specifying dates of release  is published each December in the CBS Publishing Program. This document is available in both Croatian and English.

The exact dates of release are pre-announced in the Calendar of Statistical Data Issues. It is available in both Croatian and English.

A release calendar for the year ahead is available on the statistical office's website (www.dzs.hr).

The data publishing revision policy in the Croatian Bureau of Statisical includes the following:

1) Updating of the Calendar of Statistical Data Issues

2) Publishing of corrigenda of the publishing data

1) Updating of the Calendar of Statistical Data Issues

The data publishing revision policy of the Croatian Bureau of Statistics, which is carried out according to the defined deadlines, is carried out by updating the Calendar of Statistical Data Issues. According to the Official Statistics Act, changes in the publishing deadlines for publications/data are announced in advance. The Croatian Bureau of Statistics is obliged to announce each change in the publishing deadlines (the Calendar update) at least three days prior to the date originally announced in the Calendar at the web site of the Croatian Bureau of Statistics.

The update of the publishing deadlines for data or publications (the update of the Calendar) is announced without delay on the Croatian Bureau of Statistics’ website by updating the date in the Calendar and putting the notice beside the Calendar, which says: updated: (the accurate new date).

Therefore, the Calendar that contains the original publishing deadline for a particular publication/statistical information is replaced with the new Calendar which includes the updated publishing deadline. The original Calendar is kept in the Publishing Department which registers every change in publishing deadlines for publications in the Calendar Update Base.

2) Publishing of the corrigenda of the published data

In cases of error in the published data, the Croatian Bureau of Statistics announces the correction as soon as possible and as simple as possible in order to help the users to clearly see what was changed in comparison to the originally published data. The correction is carried out by marking the incorrect data with an asterisk and creating the corrigendum.

Release calendar is accessible on CBS website: http://www.dzs.hr/default_e.htm - Calendars

Data are simultaneously released at the same time (11.00) to all interested parties by publishing on the CBS’s website.

There is no prior access to data before its release.

Data (as indices in unadjusted form, trend, SA and WDA form) are transmitted to Eurostat 60 days after the reference period.

If data are transmitted to Eurostat before they were nationally released, they are submitted to Eurostat marked with the confidentiality flag.

Monthly as First Release and on the CBS web site in Excel Table in STS Database.

Data are published in the First release Service activities, monthly on the CBS website: http://www.dzs.hr.

The time series of the turnover indices of service activities are published on the web site of the Croatian Bureau of Statistics www.dzs.hr in the STS Database (Short-Term Business Statistics Database) in the area Services under the headings Turnover indices of services activities − monthly data, and Turnover indices of services activities − quarterly data, on the link https://stsbaza.dzs.hr/en/Report?dt=9 and within Statistics in Line under the title Economy – Basic Indicators.

News releases provide data on:

- graph for indices of services activities by quarters (seasonally and working day adjusted and working - day adjusted indices). Series starting from 2012. Data are presented on base year 2015=100.

-month on month growth rates calculated on basis of seasonally and working-day adjusted indices

-year on year growth rates calculated on basis of working-day adjusted indices

-seasonally and working-day adjusted, working-day adjusted indieces and gross unadjusted indices, on base year 2015=100

-structure of generated turnover, by activities, according to NKD 2007.

Printed form of First Release is available for a fee, in Croatian and English and can be ordered at:

Central Bureau of Statistics

Ilica 3

P. O. B. 80

10 000 Zagreb

CROATIA

E-mail: stat.info@dzs.hr

Phone: + 385 (0) 1 4806 138; 4806 154; 4811 212 Fax: + 385  (0) 1 4806 148; 4806 199

The copies can also be obtained by subscription: + 385 (0) 1 48 14 791.

No ministerial commentary is attached to the release of data by the Statistical office.

Name of national paper publications: First release: Service activities

Name of national electronic dissemination: First releases: Service activities

In Excel format on the web site of the Croatian Bureau of Statistics in the STS Database (Short-Term Business Statistics Database) in the area Services under the headings Turnover indices of services activities − monthly data, and Turnover indices of services activities − quarterly data, on the link https://stsbaza.dzs.hr/en/Report?dt=9 and within Statistics in Line under the title Economy – Basic Indicators.

Not available

Data are disseminated to Eurostat in pre-defined tables through eDamis, to be used in European aggregates as well as released as national data.

Short methodological explanations are published in the First release, and  on the CBS website (www.dzs.hr) in the Statistics in Line.

Main data included in the First release: turnover (value) indices for service activities for total and in general at the 2-digit NACE level and for Sections , aggregate M69+M702 and for group N812 (as defined in Annex D of STS regulation).

Indices are published in the gross, working day adjusted and seasonally adjusted forms and trend.

Publicly available quality management documentation is this report following bullets from 11 to 18.

There is a written statement under the Official Statistical Act (NN, No. 103/03, 75/09, 59/12 and 12/13) that official statistics in Croatia should be of enough quality.

CBS has started systematic approach to quality management with the adoption of the European Code of Practice and with the decision to implement TQM. This process is still in course. Data base for storing information for the purpose of assessing data quality has been developing.

Usual quality checks have been undertaken during the data editing. The outputs are improved data.

CBS has started systematic approach to quality management with the adoption of the European Code of Practice and with the decision to implement TQM. This process is still in course. Data base for storing information for the purpose of assessing data quality has been developing.

Main quality problems in this survey are: dealing with increasing resistance of reporting units to report data and with constant market changes, especially organizational changes in reporting units which have an impact on data comparability during the time.

Overall quality assessment for this monthly survey, based on available quality indicators is following:

- Data are complete in a sence that turnover variable for all NACE Rev.2 activities and for all levels of aggregation as required by Annex D of STS Regulation (for small countires) are provided.

- Results of the survey are disseminated to Eurostat on time (t+60) and published nationally according to the pre-announced release calendar.

The main problems which can influence results are:

- increasing resistance of reporting units to report data

- dealing with constant market changes, especially organizational changes in reporting units which have impact on data comparability during the time.

The main users are government, financial institutions, economic analysts, media, researches and students, enterprises, Eurostat and internal users (National accounts).

Although CBS has questionnaire on user satisfaction on its website, results from this survey are not available.

There is a good cooperation with main users like Croatian National Bank, Chamber of Economy and Ministry for Economy.

CBS responds to all users requests up-to-date.

Indicators are complete and fully in line with the concepts and definitions in methodology based on the EU Council Regulation No 1165/98 (Annex D) on short-term statistics and its amendments.

The main sources of errors are sampling errors and non-sampling errors.

The first estimates in general are not biased.

The main source for non-sampling errors is the accuracy of the sample frame. In order to update sample frame and to give feedback to Statistical Business Register, based on the information from the survey, units from the sample are classified as:

0 - runs business, refuse to report the data

1 - runs business, report submitted

2 - stopped running business

3 - not engage in in the scope of the survey

4 - dormant unit

5 - bankruptcy

6 - undeliverable

7- does not perform specified service activity but some other service activity

8- budget users

9 - organizational changes (merge, splits etc.)

The sampling error is not available.

In  2022, there were 99.76% of responses (response rate for field units).

Overcoverage rate on whole set of data was 0.97%.

Imputation rate on whole set of data was 5.19%.

Measures to reduce non-response: written remainders, telephone contacts with reporting units.

Results are nationally published within approximately 60 days after the end of the reference period monthly and quarterly in Excel Sheets in STS databse and monthly in First Release.

From January 2019 results are diseminated to Eurostat 60 days after the end of the reference month and quarter. 

The data are collected via a web-based application (the so-called CAWI). The reporting units enter data directly into the USL-M form, which is available on the web site of the Croatian Bureau of Statistics at www.dzs.hr . The period for data collection ranges each month, as a rule, between the 1^st and the 20^th day in a month for the previous reference month data.

The period for VAT data from Tax Administration is 45 days after reference month.

The survey is in general closed 60 days after the reference month.

Data are delivered according to the pre-announced release calendar and there is no time lag between the actual delivery of the data and the target date when it should have been delivered.

Same statistical concepts are applied in the entire national territory; there is no problem of geographical comparability.

Data are also comparable with other countries because the methodology is based on the same regulations.

Data series from Q1 2000 to Q4 2017 have been compiled by integrating data from two sources: administrative source and statistical surveys.

Current statistical survey covering all services activities (as defined in Annex D of STS Regulation) has been carried out since Q1 2011. It substitutes several former statistical surveys which had been previously conducted covering only a part of the Hotels and restaurants (NACE Section I).

Data for period 2000 to 2010 for other, previously non-covered service activities have been obtained from administrative source by using the data basis of Value Added Tax records kept by the Tax Administration of the Croatian Ministry of Finance.

Data are comparable over time.

Data are mostly coherent with Structural business statistics data: the same sample frame (Statistical Business Register) and the same definition on turnover are used.

Data are internal coherent. Higher level aggregations are derived from detailed data according to well-defined procedures. For all NACE areas covered by the survey, the same definition of turnover is used.

Cost of CBS: approximately 3 200 hours annually.

Burden of respondents: there is no information. In order to reduce burden of reporting units, administrative sources are used as data source for this survey.

Burden for reporting units is available only from 2018 which are conducted via Internet survey. Reporting units give information on time they spent to fill out the questionnaire only in first month of the year. Average time spent as respondents to fill the USL-M surveys is approximately 0,10 hours per month.

There is no formally approved general policy on data revision on the level of CBS.

The "de facto revision policy" used for this survey includes:

- for mayor revisions (such as change of base year) - all series are recalculated but changes are not announced in advance. Explanations are given when new data are published.

- routine revisions (such as changes of SA and WDA data series) - revised data are published when new data are normally published without classified changed data as revised. There is only methodological explanation regarding usage SA and WDA tool and its implication on changes of previously published data.

- if errors occur, corrected data are published as soon as possible or in the next issue of the publication.

The same revision policy is applied nationally and in transmission to Eurostat.

There is no availability of a vintage database.

Revision calendar exists - information covered under item 8.1.

The benchmarking is not carried out.

The data as indices in original, non-undjusted form are published as final and are not subject to any revision, a fact which is noted in the publications.

The exception could occur for data for the first quarter of the year when new sample is drawn and first results are provided before all units from the new sample respond.

If error on data occurs, corrected data are published as soon as possible or in the next issuee of the First release.

Data revised due to the process of Seasonally or Working day adjustment are published each quarter in the First release and monthly on the CBS web site in Excel Table  for the whole data series.

Major changes in the methodology are announced in the First release at the time the change is introduced.

If errors occur, corrected data are published as soon as possible or in the next issue of the publication.

The same revision policy is applied nationally and in transmission to Eurostat.

There is no availability of a vintage database.

Revision calendar exists - information covered under item 8.1.

The benchmarking is not carried out.

The Mean Absolute Revision (MAR) and Mean Revision (MR) of year on year growth rates for unadjusted and calendar data for the period from January 2020 to December 2022.

 For unadjusted data MAR and MR are 0,0000.

Data set is based on a regular monthly statistical survey.

Frame on which the source is based is Address list maintained by the statistics office, derived from the Statistical Business Register.

The survey is carried out by using the sampling method. The sample is selected once a year. It is based on size and on annual turnover of business entities for the previous year. All medium-sized and large enterprises (sizes 5, 6 and 7) are taken from the Statistical Business Register. Units marked in the Register as small ones are also included if they exced the determined threshold according to their annual turnover. Information on size of business entities  is obtained from the Statistical Business Register and data on annual turnover from the regular monthly survey (USL-M form) and from administrative data sources (data bases of value added tax reports). A subset of units that will be included into the regular survey (USL-M form) is selected from all units selected in the sample. A selection criterion has been determined according to a particular turnover threshold, which has to be covered by those units. The sample consists of about 8824 units, of which about 900 of them are included in the regular Monthly Report on Service activities (USL-M form).

Criteria for stratification is the main activity and the size of business entity. The main activity is defined for each business entity according to NACE Rev 2. The size thresholds are based on the number of persons employed. According to their size, business entities are classified into the size-classes:

1 - 0-4 persons employed

2 - 5-9

3 - 10-19

4 - 20-49

5 - 50-99

6 - 100-249

7 - 250 and more.

Monthly.

The data are collected via a web-based application (the so-called CAWI) and via administrative data sources (data bases of value added tax reports).

The reporting units enter data directly into the USL-M form, which is available on the web site of the Croatian Bureau of Statistics at www.dzs.hr. The period for data collection ranges each month, as a rule, between the 1^st and the 20^th day in a month for the previous reference month data. Data can also be collected by e-mail instead of paper questionnaire. Responding units send paper questionaires to CBS by post or by fax. 

 The period for VAT data is 45 days after reference month period.

Actions taken to speed up or increase the rate of response: automatic reminders sent through the web application, re-contact by mail or by e-mail (written reminders), telephone contacts.

Actions taken to speed up or increase the rate of response: re-contacts by mail (written remainders), telephone contacts.

There is an automatic control during the entering data in to on-line questionnaire. At data entry essential errors are identified which force responding unit or administrator to eliminate them. If not, the data could not be successfully send to database.

In the case of web questionnaires first checkings are done at the moment of data entry. Reporting units receive messages if errors occur and/or messages with warnings if data are not logical and have to be re-checked.

Entered data also go through logical and calculation controls in survey processor according to which data are then checked and if there is a need, corrected by statistitian.There are specific rules that indicate if data are not valid. If neccessary, reporting unit is contacted.

On micro level some of the validation rules are for reporting data:

- total turnover by enterprise depends on the size class of the enterprise, e.g.: for large and medium sized enterprise system indicates error if their turnover is below pre-defined limit.

- total turnover of enterprise in the reference month is 50% lower or higher compared with the previous month and with the same month of the previous year.

- total turnover of enterprise for the same period is 20% lower or higher compared the VAT data of reference month and with the same month of the previous year.

On micro level some of the validation rules are for VAT data:

- Correction of negative values

- Comperison with fild survey data

- Detection of outliers

- Imputations

This survey is conducted by using the sample method.

The Statistical Business Register is used as a frame for sample selection.

Item non-response is dealt with data editing.

Grossed up results (value of turnover) are used to compile indices. Grossed up results as absolute numbers are used internally, mainly by National accounts.

Nominal turnover indices (value indices) in original, unadjusted form for a current month are calculated in relation to the average of a base year, then in relation to the same month of a previous year.

Indices are presented in original, non-adjusted form, as well as seasonaly adjusted, working day adjusted form and as a trend.

Since 2016, in the process of seasonal adjustment (identification and evaluation of seasonal and calendar effects), the software package JDemetra+ was used. Considering that there are two available options in the JDemetra+, TRAMO-SEATS (using Seats method for estimating seasonal effects) and X13 (using the X11 method for estimating seasonal effects), seasonal and working-day adjustment has been done by using the X13 ARIMA method.  The effect of a random component in the seasonal adjustment process of the time series of indices has been excluded.

Due to the character of the implemented adjustment method, the adding of new quarterly/monthly observations for each quarter/month may cause changes in the seasonally and working-day adjusted indices for previous periods. The official list of holidays and non-working days in the Republic of Croatia is used to assess the working-day component, that is, to assess the effect of working days and holidays.

The level of detail: nominal and real series – Base indices of the various aggregates/subgroups of the National classification of economic activities (NKD) based on NACE Rev.2. on the following levels:

The use of default vs. national calendar – National calendar of holidays for Croatia is used in X13ARIMA method. 

Adjustment for moving holiday effects (e.g. Easter) – Each series is tested for presence of Easter and Corpus Christi effect (automatic procedure in ARIMA X 13) – effect is significant in part of time series.

Treatment of leap year – The effect of leap year is tested as one of the calendar regressors, it is significant in part of time series.

Lack of calendar adjustment – There is calendar adjustment, i.e. calendar effect for Croatian holidays is tested for all the series

Type of calendar adjustment (e.g. regARIMA) – Calendar adjustment is performed by using automatic identification procedure in ARIMA x13, starting with 7 regressors and reducing their number as some may not be significant for given series.

Type of outliers detected – Level shifts (LS), additive outliers (AO) and transitory changes (TC) are tested, most common are LS's and AO's, automatic procedure is used in ARIMA X13.

Known economic outliers – At present there is not known economic explanation for persistent outliers.

Software / its version and the seasonal adjustment method: JDemetra+ 2.2.2, method is X13ARIMA.

Manual vs. automatic model or filter selection  - For the majority of series, automatic model selection procedure is used; for problematic series, several models are tried in the frame of detailed analysis module until optimal model is found.

How often are models and respective parameters re-estimated? - Parameters re-estimation for ref. periods April, August and December, in other months application of forecasted factors for calculating ‘sa’ and ‘ycal’ series. Annual revision of models, filters, calendar regressors for ref. period m12

The horizon of revisions – It depends primarily on revisions of original series. Seasonally adjusted time series are revised in April, August and December (all values backwards)

Additive vs. multiplicative decomposition of seasonal adjustment – For the majority of series, multiplicative decomposition is performed. (more details in the attached document "Seasonal adjustment_service activities")

The verification of the adequacy of the models – Adequacy of models is checked by built-in diagnostic indicators in ARIMA x13 after each new observation is added.

Critical value and automation of outlier detection – Default critical value in the automatic detection procedure of outliers is used (ARIMA x13).

The method of selecting filter length – For the length of seasonal filters, automatic procedure is used in  ARIMA x13

Seasonal adjustment over the known breaks in series – Currently there are no breaks in series.

Indirect SA and checks for residual seasonality – No, direct SA approach is used.

The consistency of different aggregation levels – Not applicable

The critical value for outlier detection - 4

The filter length (automatically chosen vs. user-defined)- Seasonal filters are fixed during the year (revised at the end of a year if necessary) - (more details in the attached document "Seasonal adjustment_service activities")

Whether residual seasonality is checked and from which level of detail the aggregation is started - qs test and f-test on residual seasonality are checked for every series

Not available.