Federal Statistical Office (DESTATIS)

E 21 "Business indices, seasonal adjustment"

Statistisches Bundesamt

Gustav-Stresemann-Ring 11

65180 Wiesbaden, Germany

General remark:

Information related to the monthly indicator for Section I is marked with “A)” and related to the monthly indicator for Sections H, J, L, M and N with “B)”. Information that is applicable to both indices has no indication at all.

The turnover indices are part of the overall STS indicator system which supports business cycle observation. The objective of these indices is to show the development of the market for goods and services via totals invoiced.

Turnover indices comprise:

A) Monthly indices of accommodation and food service activities.

B) Monthly indices of turnover for the service sector

NACE Rev. 2.

A) Activities of NACE Rev. 2 Section I.

B) Activities of NACE Rev. 2 Sections H, J, L, M (without 70.1, 72, 75), N.

The objective of the turnover index is to show the development of the market for goods and services. Turnover comprises the totals invoiced by the observation unit during the reference period, and corresponds to market sales of goods or services supplied to third parties. Turnover also includes all other charges (transport, packaging, etc.) passed on to the customer, even if these charges are listed separately in the invoice. Turnover excludes VAT and other similar deductible taxes directly linked to turnover as well as all duties and taxes on the goods or services invoiced by the unit.

Legal unit.

All relevant statistical units in the business register, i.e. all legal units with at least EUR 17,500 turnover and/or at least one employee and with their main economic activity in one of the NACE-Sections mentioned above.

Country as a whole. There are no units located in Germany which are excluded from the sales figures. The turnover index does not cover legally independent affiliates abroad or branches abroad.

A) Since 1980.

B) Since 2015.

2015 = 100

Index.

Month

Till 2022: The laws regulating the collection, treatment and dissemination of statistical data are the Council Regulation (EC) No. 1165/98 of 19 May 1998 concerning short-term statistics with implementing acts (e.g. Commission Regulation No 1503/2006 of 28 September 2006 concerning the definitions) as well as the Federal Statistics Act (1987) and the law on using administrative data (VwDVG of 2010).

From 2022 onwards: Regulation (EU) 2019/2152 of the European Parliament and of the Council on European business statistics, repealing 10 legal acts in the field of business statistics (EBS-Regulation).

Commission Implementing Regulation 2020/1197 laying down technical specifications and arrangements pursuant to Regulation (EU) 2019/2152 of the European Parliament and of the Council on European business statistics repealing 10 legal acts in the field of business statistic (General Implementing Act).

A)  Relies additionally on the law on statistics on distributive trades and hotels and restaurants (HdlStatG of 2021).

B) Relies additionally on the law on short-term statistics in services (HdlDlStatG of 2021).

Data sent to Eurostat may contain confidential data to compile the European aggregate.

Confidentiality is guaranteed by section 16 of the Federal Statistics Act. It requires that respondents must be informed about their rights and obligations in providing statistical information. This rule is strictly followed. It also applies to the notification that individual data are only used for statistical purposes and - subject to protection procedures - for scientific purposes.

Furthermore, Chapter V “Statistical Confidentiality” of Regulation (EC) No 223/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council applies.

As regards the confidentiality of data, methods of primary and secondary confidentiality checking have been developed and are being used.

A release calendar containing the precise release dates for the reference periods in the following twelve months is published on the website of the destatis.

https://www.destatis.de/SiteGlobals/Forms/Suche/Termine/EN/Terminsuche_Formular.html?nn=43216

Indices are simultaneously released to all parties. The data are available at the database “GENESIS-Online” for all users at the same time.

Identification of internal government access to data before release in accordance with Principle 6.7 of the European Statistics Code of Practice is not applicable.

Monthly

Press releases are published by destatis:

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/_node.html

A) In a monthly press release, results on the turnover of Section I “accommodation” are published.

B) In a monthly press release, results on the turnover of the service sector are published.

publications are linked on the destatis website www.destatis.de

Indices are also published at the time series database “GENESIS-Online”

https://www-genesis.destatis.de/genesis/online/data?operation=sprachwechsel&language=en

Index numbers are available in unadjusted, working-day and seasonally adjusted form. Additionally, tables show the turnover and the change of rate to the previous quarter and to the corresponding quarter in the year before.

Not available.

Data are transmitted to Eurostat.

The following articles describe the methods used for the calculation of turnover indices:

“Wirtschaft und Statistik Heft 11/2010: E. Wein/ Dr. K. Lorentz: Informationen zur Stichprobenrotation. Die neue automatisierte Stichprobenrotation bei den Handels- und Gastgewerbestatistiken“;

“Wirtschaft und Statistik Heft 2/2005: S.C. Kaumanns: Konjunkturerhebung in bestimmten Dienstleistungsbereichen”;

“Wirtschaft und Statistik Heft 12/2006: S.C. Kaumanns: Erstellung, Rückschätzung und Verkettung von Zeitreihen der vierteljährlichen Erhebung in bestimmten Dienstleistungsbereichen“;

“Wirtschaft und Statistik Heft 8/2007:  S.C. Kaumanns/K. Schelhase: Erstellung von Konjunkturindikatoren im Dienstleistungsbereich aus mehreren Datenquellen“;

“Wirtschaft und Statistik Heft 3/2009: H. Fischer/Dr. J. Oertel: Konjunkturindikatoren im Dienstleistungsbereich. Das Mixmodell in der Praxis“;

“Wirtschaft und Statistik Heft 3/2010: A. Seidel: Umstellung der Konjunkturstatistik in bestimmten Dienstleistungsbereichen auf die Wirtschaftszweigklassifikation Statistische Systematik der Wirtschaftszweige in der Europäischen Union (NACE) Revision 2“.

Standardized quality reports are published on the website of destatis

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Methods/Quality/_node.html

The data of German official statistics enjoy a reputation of high reliability in Germany and abroad. Destatis has committed itself to assure and further enhance the level of quality already attained. In order to achieve this task – also in the ESS – the activities of destatis are based on quality guidelines. To assure quality in the long term, destatis applies a variety of systematic quality assurance measures, among others the European Statistics Code of Practice.

Detailed descriptions can be found here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Methods/Quality/_node.html

A) With the switch from a stratified random sample to a mix-model in 2012, the burden, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises, was reduced completely.

B) With the switch from a stratified random sample to a mix-model in 2007, the burden, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises, was reduced completely. Since then, the number of the units in the survey decreased to one-tenth. The quality of the results did not suffer from that. Further positive effects are quicker responses and a higher response rate.

Main users of turnover indices are the European Commission (Eurostat) at the international level and the Federal Government, i.e. the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy, the German Central Bank, business associations, economic research institutes, universities, trade associations, the media, and also the interested public. at the national level.

Destatis conducts user satisfaction surveys in various sectors of statistics. The Statistical Advisory Committee (Statistischer Beirat) represents the interests of the users of federal statistics and regularly consults with destatis.

Additionally, user satisfaction is measured by the number of monthly visits on specialized publications on the website of destatis and the respective number of printed products sold or downloads, quarterly downloads from the on-line database “GENESIS”, downloads of the Statistical Yearbook sorted by chapters and the number of external queries via the costumer management system.

STS requirements according to EU regulations and national laws are fulfilled.

Main sources for errors or potential for bias in the calculation of the turnover index are induced by survey data, in particular unit/item non response, over and under coverage, incorrect classified units in the sample frame, implausible data, incorrect signing of the non-response case and inappropriate estimation of missing values.

Errors in administrative data might be different observation units (e. g. tax groups), incorrect classification, implausible data, deviations in the definitions, modifications of the legal basis of the administrative data or in the delivery format, lack of timeliness and completeness (dependence), no unique identifier (statistical identity number differs from the identity number of the administrative data source) and metadata not up-to-date for linking with the business register.

The sampling design for monthly statistics in Section I and the service sector are selected according to recognized scientific random sample theory so that statistical results deliver the best possible precision given the sample size.

A)

B)

A)

The response is obligatory. Otherwise, fines can be imposed up to EUR 5,000.
Still, non-sampling errors occur due to cases of unit and item non-response. The size-weighted unit-non-response is 28,21 on average for the 12 months of 2022.

B)

The response is obligatory. Otherwise, fines can be imposed up to EUR 5,000.
Still, non-sampling errors occur due to cases of unit and item non-response. The size-weighted unit-non-response is on average for the 12 months of 2022 is:

A) Results for Section I are published 45 days after the end of the reference period (t+45).

B) Results for section H, J, L, M and N are published 65 days after the end of the reference period (t+65).

All publication deadlines are met.

The turnover index for “other service activities” is geographically comparable. However, the comparability between Member States cannot be guaranteed due to different methods applied by Member States.

A) Consistent data are available since 1994.

B) Consistent data are available since 2009. The comparability before 2009 is restricted since data conversion to NACE Rev. 2 led to different levels of quality of the converted indices in different industries. In contrast, the switch from a sample to a mix-model in 2007 did not affect comparability.

SBS and STS data (change rates) are coherent to a limited extent only. The reason is, among others, different methods of compiling the respective statistics due to different purposes of SBS and STS statistics. Furthermore, there are differences in the European definitions.

Data are internally consistent. Administrative data alone would not completely meet the European requirements. For this reason, administrative data is combined with survey data of “big enterprises”. It can also be stated that both the completeness of data and its quality increase the later data are obtained.

A) Costs per year in EUR 1,000: 643

Number of cases per year: 72,000

Total time per case in min.: n.a.

Number of variables per case: 3 (turnover, fulltime-employee, parttime-employee)

Source: Standard Cost Model (effective 01/01/2012)

B) Costs per year in EUR 1,000: 643

Number of cases per year: 20,000

Total time per case in min.: 46

Number of variables per case: 2 (turnover, persons employed)

Source: Standard Cost Model (effective 01/01/2012)

The general revision policy adopted by the FSO covers routine revisions, major revisions and non-scheduled revisions. It can be found on the FSO website

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Methods/Quality/GeneralRevisionsPolicy.html

The national revision policy is the same as for Eurostat data.

Data revisions are necessary due to new information which is included through regular revisions.

A) Data are routinely revised every month. Corrections are possible up to 24 months from the reference period. The range of corrections and advance notice of major changes are published in the monthly press release. The Mean Revision (MR) and the Mean Average Revision (MAR) for 01.2020 to 12.2022:

B) Regular revisions cover the two quarters prior to the current quarter. The number of regular revisions is low in general. The Mean Revision (MR) and the Mean Average Revision (MAR) for 01.2020 to 12.2022:

The data set of Section I is based on a sample survey.

The data set of Sections G, H, J, L, M and N is based on a mix-model that combines data from a statistical survey with administrative data. In Sections H, J, L, M and N all legal units with at least 250 persons employed and/or at least 15 million annual turnover (in the business register) are surveyed primarily. Administrative data are used for all other units. Hence, it is a full coverage. Units that are primarily surveyed are selected once a year.

The administrative data source for turnover is the turnover tax advance return by regional tax offices. There are some differences in the definition (e.g. extraordinary income is included) and in the observation unit because of different purposes of collecting the respective data. For instance, some legal units form a tax group and report as one unit. However, their turnover tax advance return must be assigned to the relevant observation unit in the tax group.

Data are collected monthly.

Reporting via electronic media (internet) is obligatory since August 2013. Missing responses are requested by telephone, postal or e-mail reminders.

Two methods to report on-line are provided: IDEV and eSTATISTIK.core. IDEV is a web-based questionnaire. eSTATISTIK.core enables enterprises to extract statistical raw data automatically from their corporate accounting systems and transfer the compiled data via internet to destatis.

Plausibility checks on micro data level are implemented. There are different checks for survey data and administrative data. For survey data the plausibility checks can be divided in “can-be-errors” (could be an error) and “must-be-errors” (is definitely an error). The “must-be-errors” have to be cleared prior to the compilation of the indices, otherwise the process stops.

Additionally, results are checked on the macro data level by comparing change rates of unadjusted indices as well as adjusted indices.

A) Non-response or missing values due to late response are estimated. The values of enterprises that provide late information are estimated as part of the automatic plausibility checks using the relation between the information of the preceding three months and the same month last year. The estimates are replaced by the correct values after the late response is received.

In 2010 three estimation methods had been introduced: S30, S60 and S70. The best estimation method will be identified for each missing value.

S30: The method is suited for enterprises whose turnover has seasonal patterns. Turnover of the same month last year is updated with a trend component which is specific to each enterprise.

S60: Missing turnover values for a specific enterprise are updated with the turnover trend of enterprises from the same NACE Class (4-digit). The turnover trend is defined as the quotient of the current year’s and previous year’s turnover.

S70: This method is suitable for enterprises whose turnover development is comparable with values of the previous month instead of the previous year. Estimation uses the median turnover from one or more previous months.

Method of weighting and chaining use the fact that indices for retail trade turnover are self-weighting indices (relation current month value/mean monthly value of the base year*100).

B) Indices are compiled by the change rate to the same month of the previous year on the 4-digit-level of the NACE Rev. 2. The aggregation to higher levels takes place by using STS-weights.

Calendar and seasonal adjustment based on X12-ARIMA for Section I; Calendar and seasonal adjustment based on X13 in JDemetra+ 2.2 for all other NACE codes

General remark:

Information related to the monthly indicator for Section I is marked with “A)” and related to the monthly indicator for the Sections H, J, L, M and N with “B)”. Information that is applicable to both indices has no indication at all