National Statistical Institute of Bulgaria

“Short-term Business Statistics and Transport Statistics” Department.

2, P. Volov Str.; 1038 Sofia, Bulgaria 

The source for the compilation of STS in the service sector is a monthly mandatory statistical survey which is carried out through a questionnaire: "Sales in industry, construction, trade and services”. Data is collected on the indicators "net sales" and "sale of raw materials and materials" on the basis of which short-term variable “turnover” is compiled. The source for I55 is administrative data.

The turnover index measures the change in the revenues from enterprises sales in current prices. The indices are calculated by fixed base (2015=100). This information is suitable for tracing the current economic development and short-term forecasts.

The index data are presented in the following forms:

• Unadjusted;
• Working-day adjusted;
• Seasonally-adjusted.

Classification of Economic Activities NACE Rev. 2.

Activities covered: Sections H, I, J,  L, M_STS (М69, 702, М71, М73 and М74) and  N (N77, N78, N79, N80, N81 and N82) of NACE.BG-2008. Turnover indices are calculated by economic activities at divisions and groups (2nd and 3-th digit levels of NACE.BG-2008) and total  H, I, J, L, M_STS and N.

Services turnover is defined in EBS GIA 2020/1197 concerning short-term statistics as regards definitions of variables, list of variables and frequency of data compilation. Net turnover consists of all income arising during the reference period in the course of ordinary activities of the statistical unit, and is presented net of all price reductions, discounts and rebates granted by it.

Excluded from net turnover are:

— all taxes, duties or levies linked directly to revenue;

— any amounts collected on behalf of any principal, if the statistical unit is acting as an agent in its relationship with said principal;

— all income not arising in the course of ordinary activities of the statistical unit. Usually, these types of income are classified as ‘Other (operating) income’, ‘Financial income’, ‘Extra-ordinary income’ or under a similar heading, depending on the respective set of generally accepted accounting standards used to prepare the financial statements.

The turnover index measures the change in the revenues from enterprises sales in current prices. The reference period covered is the calendar month.

Reporting unit - Enterprise.

Observation unit(s) - Enterprise.

Statistical population is a sample of enterprises making around 70% of the annual turnover of the enterprises in the sections H, I, J, L, M_STS and N.

All regions of Bulgaria are covered.

The indices are calculated from the first month of 2015 to the last month of the reference year.

The base year is 2015.

Indices (%).

Month.

National Legal basis: National Law on Statistics (Article 20) states that all persons that manage or represent legal persons, are obliged to provide the National Statistical Institute and the Bodies of Statistics with reliable data when filling-in forms and questionnaires on surveys included in the National Statistical Programme, for which mandatory participation is provided.

EU Legislation: Regulation (EU) 2019/2152 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 November 2019 on European business statistics; Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2020/1197 of 30 July 2020 laying down technical specifications and arrangements pursuant to Regulation (EU) 2019/2152 and Regulation (EC) No 1893/2006 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 20 December 2006 establishing the statistical classification of economic activities NACE Revision 2.

Obligation on units to provide data: The survey is included into the National Statistical Programme – it is compulsory.
The Law of statistics includes provisions relating to fines, which can be imposed for refusal, non-response and delay. They are laid down in specific Chapter 9 “Administrative and liability provisions” in article 52.

Services  turnover indexes are published on the NSI website and the data are available to the users.

The indicator is transmitted to Eurostat at the same time with their national publication.

Data are sent to other international organizations on request.

Regulation (EC) № 223/2009 on European statistics (recital 24 and Article 20(4)) of 11 March 2009, stipulates the need to establish common principles and guidelines ensuring the confidentiality of data used for the production of European statistics and the access to those confidential data with due account for technical developments and the requirements of users in democratic society.

The National Law on Statistics includes provisions relating to data confidentiality and protection of secrecy, which are in compliance with the EU legislation and standard European practice. In the Law is stated that individual data received and collected at the time of statistical surveys shall be statistical confidentiality and shall be used only for statistical purposes. Individual data, obtained for the purposes of the statistical surveys, shall not be used as evidence to the bodies of the executive powers and the judicial authorities. Requirements, obligations and measures for data protection, as well as fines that can be imposed, are treated in separate chapters, namely Chapter 6 on "Protection of secrecy” and Chapter 9 on "Administrative penal provisions”.

Article 25 of the Law on Statistics specifies the criteria, according to which certain data cannot be made public or released – individual data, data which could be indirectly identified, as well as aggregations of less than three statistical units and/or when the relative share of one parameter is more than 85% of the total volume of this parameter for all population units.

Data, which according to the Law on statistics are confidential, are not published.

The date for publication of statistical information is listed in the Release calendar by dates and by themes.

Release calendar :

https://www.nsi.bg/en/content/44/basic-page/release-calendar

Data are simultaneously accessible to all users.

No data produced and disseminated by the National Statistical Institute are provided to government officials outside of the NSI before being disseminated to the public.

The NSI transmits data on the services turnover index  to Eurostat 60 days after the end of the reference month with the required level of detail.
Indices are also transmitted to various institutes and ministries.

Month.

NSI publishes regular quarterly press release on turnover indices in services 50 days after the end of the reference quarter.

There is no paper publication.

Data on Turnover indices in services are available to all users of the NSI website, Statistical data, section Business statistics - Short-term Business Statistics: https://www.nsi.bg/en/content/956/quarterly-data

The services turnover indexes  from 2000 are posted on the website of NSI – in the on-line database INFOSTAT:

https://infostat.nsi.bg/infostat/pages/module.jsf?x_2=217

Micro data are neither distributed nor provided to the users.

The indicator is transmitted to Eurostat at the same time with their national publication. The data is used in European aggregates as well as for dissemination of national data in Eurostat’s disseminations.

Special tables may be obtained from “Relation with users and e-services” department of NSI.

The methodology for the compilation of Turnover indexes in services is available on the NSI website: 

Turnover indices in services | National statistical institute (nsi.bg)

EBS Regulation EU 2019/2152 of the European Parliament and Regulation (EC) № 223/2009 of the European Parliament. To guarantee the quality of results, European statistics shall be developet, produced and disseminated on the bases of uniform standards and of harmonised methods. In this respect, the following quality criteria shall apply: relevance, accuracy, timeliness, puntuality, accessibility and clarity, comparability and coherence.

Member States shall provide the Commission (Eurostat) with reports on the quality of the data transmitted. The Commission (Eurostat) shall assess the quality of data transmitted and shall prepare and publish reports on the quality of European statistics.

The legal framework which regulates the production of data from Short-term business statistics states that statistical data compiled within the EU system must be of satisfactory quality and produced data are comparable between Member States. Verification of data is done through the process of conducting a statistical survey - from respondents, from experts in the regional statistical offices and from national experts in NSI. Identified inaccuracies and errors are removed timely and comparable data of good quality are provided.

The quality of statistical information and its production process is ensured by the provisions of the European Statistics Code of Practice. The documentation on quality management is available on the Internet:

https://www.nsi.bg/en/content/471/basic-page/quality

In accordance with European and international standards, instructions are followed in relation to concepts, definitions and methodology.

The quality assessment of the Turnover index in services is based on quality requirements of the ESS (relevance, accuracy, timelines and punctuality, accessibility and clarity, coherence and comparability). The monitoring of the quality of the indicator, updating survey methodology, self-assessment of survey manager are carried out.

Main users of the information are:

• Eurostat;
• Representatives of central and local government;
• Media and organizations, business.
• Internal users: Directorate „Macroeconomic statistics“.

Monthly turnover indices measure changes in the turnover of enterprises in services; this information is suitable for monitoring of current economic developments and short-term forecasts.

This applies to all indicators of short-term business statistics. Turnover indices in services are calculated from the first month of 2015.

Not measured.

Services turnover indices are calculated and published at all levels of detail that are required by the Regulations concerning STS.

For indices estimation is conducted a representative survey for the enterprises from sections H, I, J, L, M_STS and N. The sample is computed annually based on the annual survey on SBS and covers businesses with an annual turnover exceeding 70% of the turnover of each observed activity. The sample is updated throughout the year, each change is recorded in the Register of statistical units.

There are a maximum accuracy and reliability of the data to calculate indices of turnover. Avoiding common errors appear misunderstanding the respondent what information is required or incomplete performance. Most measurement errors are detected and corrected by control logic and arithmetic underlying the information system "Business cycles" (IS BC – On-line information system for collection, verification and processing of data from short-term business statistics). The system carries out the statutory and warning controls and in a case there are errors, it displays a warning dialog error in the report. The system does not allow completion of the report until they have corrected these errors by statutory controls.

Applied sampling method is "stratified random sample" in which first the enterprises stratify by level of activity (2 - or 3-digit codes of NACE.BG-2008) and then at each level in terms of turnover. Also stratified by activity groups are defined by four subsets. From each subset is determined enterprises will fall into the sample through unintentional random props that provides equal opportunities for all businesses to fall or not to fall into the sample for survey. The first subset includes enterprises with the highest turnover of any activity group, which are observed exhaustive. For the second and third subsets is used random sampling. The fourth includes enterprises with negligible or very low turnover, which do not fall in the sample.

Extrapolation of the results to the population is made by using extrapolation coefficients which are based on the turnover of the selected units and total turnover in the particular strata.

The selection of statistical units falling in the sample and sampling errors are computed with SPSS.

Coefficient of variation is used as an indicator on precision. It is computed as a percentage.

Coefficient of variation for September of 2022

Errors made in the processing of the data are detected and removed by set arithmetic and logical controls by IS BC.

Non-responder enterprises are performed imputation of data depending on the activity and stratum, using extrapolation coefficients.

The size-weighted unit response rate for September 2022 is 0.96.

The overall average response rate is around 91% in terms of the number of enterprises and about 94% when weighted with turnover. It varies significantly, depending on the principle activity and size of the enterprises.

Actions to reduce the non-response include:

• Sending the informative reminder letters to the respondents;
• Depending on the relative importance of non-respondents in terms of their size or representativeness in the activity, the postal survey is supplemented by telephone calls and/or direct contact and collection of data for enterprises

Technical errors: are often recognized with automated checks during the data editing process. A lot of checks are carried out automatically, but under of human interaction. Original data from enterprises for a first time are checking from experts in RSOs. Final checks of data from respondents and the aggregated data analysis are done by responsible experts in Central office.

Coverage errors: The Register of statistical units (RSU) is the source of the sampling frame. RSU has direct online connection with the Trade Registry so the main characteristics of surveyed units are on-line updated. During the year the ceased enterprises are removed from the sample and new born enterprises from the exhaustive strata are included in the sample.

Multiple listing:  All statistical units in the RSU have unique identification number, so the multiple listing cannot occur.

Turnover indices in services are released at 11.00 o’clock of local time on the 50 days after the end of the reference quarter.

NSI fulfils the timeliness requirements of the STS Regulations. Data are transmitted to Eurostat 60 days after the end of the reference month.

Turnover indices are representative for the whole country, they are not representative for the regions of the country.

The methodology applied for calculation of the turnover indices is in line with international standards, that provides good comparability of the indicators across the countries.

The monthly services turnover indices are presented as time series from first month of 2015 according to NACE Rev.2 at base year 2015.

Turnover indexes are compared with turnover indexes calculated on the base of annual Structural business statistics (SBS) survey. Also SBS is the source of weights for calculation the STS indicators. Data received from SBS and those receives from STS are coherent.

Services turnover data is cross-checks with annual SBS turnover; Monthly services turnover sub-indexes are coherent with the totals.

Since the beginning of 2012 NSI have started an online information system for data collection, data editing and data processing of STS information. During 2021 Information system “Short-term statistics” was transformed into Information system “Business Cycles”. ISBC provides more efficient way of collecting data from enterprises. Data for division I55 is collected from VAT declarations. Theese changes save recourses, reduce the burden of the reporting units and the quality of short term indicators is improved.

Total NSI costs for survey: 10240 hours per year; Total burden on respondents: 5120 hours per year.

Services turnover indexes are revised at the beginning of each year, the indices for the previous year are reconciled on the basis of exhaustive annual data on turnover from Structural Business Statistics.

Major revisions are made when there is change of classification, methodology or base year. Users are informed about these changes in advance.

The same revision policy applied to data released nationally is applied and to the data transmitted to Eurostat.

Minor changes are made at the time when the revision is introduced and they are marked in footnotes in the relevant published tables.

Only final data are available on the NSI website.

Mean Absolute Revision (MAR) and Mean Revision (MR) are used as revision indicators. They are calculated on year-on-year growth rates for calendar adjusted data.

MAR and MR for calendar adjusted data for 2020-2022:

 The source for the compilation of STS in the service sector is a monthly mandatory statistical sampling survey, which is carried out through a questionnaire: 'Sales in industry, construction, trade and services'.

 Turnover includes all net revenues sales of products, goods and services (including revenues from sale of raw materials and materials).

 The frame on which the source is based is Register of Statistical Units.

 For indices estimation is conducted a sampling survey (the turnover is a stratification variable) for the enterprises from sections H, I, J, L, M_STS and N. The sample is calculated annually on the based on the annual survey on SBS and covers businesses with an annual turnover exceeding 75 % of the   turnover of each observed activity. The sample is updated every year.

 VAT returns are used to estimate the indicator for division I55.

Monthly.

Questionnaires used in the survey is ’Sales in industry, construction, trade and services’. 

Data collection media:

Online through Information system “Business cycles” (IS BC);

• Paper questionnaire. The questionnaires are sent out to the respondents and collected by regional statistical offices, where the information is entered into Information system “Business cycles”.

To reduce non-response Information system “Business cycles” has functionality to send an informative and a reminder letters to respondents.

• Automatic formation of electronic letters informing respondents about the upcoming observations, in which they are included. To enable them to attach and reporting forms in PDF format and official letters;
• Provide automatic sending of e-mail reminders to respondents who fail to report the time (when approaching the deadline for submission of reports by the subsystem).

Validation of data in the report:

When recording the data, IS BC carries out obligatory and recommended controls according to set with validation rules.

The system carries out the statutory and warning controls. In case there are errors, it displays a warning dialog error in the report. The system does not allow completion of the report until they have corrected these errors by statutory controls.

 Data validation system incorporates many tools for data control, estimations and detail reports on data completeness.  Subsequent analysis of the experts, a phone call for further clarification of data and elimination of disparities, minimize errors in the raw data and ensure accuracy of outputs at national level.

Validation of the output data:

Quality checks and data validation is performed during the entire process. The results are compared with those of the previous month. A check for the completeness of the data and control the outliers are made. After identifying the errors, they are removed in cooperation with enterprises.

Before transmission to Eurostat, the structure of the data file and format is checked in detail.

Data compilation: at the lower level of aggregation (2-nd digit level of NACE Rev.2) indices calculation is made on the bases of direct comparison of the data from the current month and data on the average month turnover value in the base year.

At higher level of aggregation indexes are calculated as weighted average - indices at lower levels are weighted with turnover structure.

Method of weighting: as weights the turnover for all activity groups from the base year (2015) is used. The source for activity weights is the mandatory Annual Structural Business Statistics (SBS) survey, which is conducted in accordance with the requirements  of EU Regulations on SBS.

In accordance with Regulations concerning STS, Indexes of turnover in other services  are to be seasonally and working day adjusted. The software used for seasonally and working day adjustment is JDemetra +2.2.0. The method used is TRAMO-SEATS.

Direct seasonal adjustment is performed. All time series, including aggregates, are seasonally adjusted on an individual basis.

Revisions of seasonally and working day adjusted data are published in accordance with accepted revision policy and release calendar for the unadjusted data.

More information about the seasonal adjustment in Annex.

Not applicable.