Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT)

Short-term Business Statistics Department/Turnover and Volume Indicators Group

Devlet Mah. Necatibey Cad. No: 114 Bakanlıklar Çankaya ANKARA

Turnover is an important short term indicator used in the assessment of the economic situation in our country. Turnover Indices are calculated to follow the changes of this concept which is composed of sales of goods and services invoiced by the enterprise in the reference month over time, to monitor the development in quarterly and yearly basis, to provide data to academicians, students, and other groups of society, to have data consistent with the European Union regulations, to ensure the possibility of international comparisons and to form a resource for various researches for the turnover of the enterprises.

Industrial Turnover Index: It aims to show the development of turnover in industry.

NACE Rev. 2. and MIGs

B and C sectors are covered while calculating Industrial Turnover Index.

SECTION B - MINING AND QUARRYING

SECTION C - MANUFACTURING

Non-covered sectors: 09 "Mining Support Service Activities" are not published but are included in the aggregated indices.

List and definitions of variables: Total, domestic and non domestic turnover data.

Turnover

Turnover comprises the total value of goods and services invoiced by enterprise in reference month and this corresponds to market sales of goods and services supplied to third parties. Turnover includes invoiced by unit vis-a-vis its customer other all taxes and duties. Turnover also includes all other charges (transport, packaging, etc.) passed on to the customer, even if these charges are listed separately in the invoice.

Turnover does not include price decline, discount and allowance, recycling package. The income which is classified in the company’s account as other business income, financial income and extraordinary income are excluded in turnover. Business subventions obtained from the government are also excluded.

Domestic turnover/Non-domestic turnover

The objectives and characteristics of indices for variable (turnover) also apply to the indices for the distinction between domestic and non-domestic turnover.

The indices of domestic and non-domestic turnover require turnover to be split according to the first destination of the product based on the change of ownership (whether or not there are also corresponding physical movements of goods across frontiers). The destination is determined by the residency of the third party that purchased the goods and services. The domestic market is defined as third parties resident in the same national territory as the observation unit.

Enterprise

All enterprises that operate in the industrial sector and which issue VAT and SCT declarations in Türkiye.

Türkiye. Activities outside the geographical coverage are not included.

Series of index starts from January 2005. Indices have been calculated by using administrative sources since 2018. The administrative records are available since 2009. Industrial sector indices for 2005-2008 have been linked using base year index rates for 2010.  

Base year: 2015

Indices, percentage changes (%)

Monthly

Legal basis: Statistical Law of TURKSTAT no. 5429, of 10th November 2005 is the legal basis of all statistics.

- REGULATION (EU) 2019/2152 OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL of 27 November 2019 on European business statistics, repealing 10 legal acts in the field of business statistics.

- COMMISSION IMPLEMENTING REGULATION (EU) 2020/1197 of 30 July 2020 laying down technical specifications and arrangements pursuant to Regulation (EU) 2019/2152 of the European Parliament and of the Council on European business statistics repealing 10 legal acts in the field of business statistics.

Unadjusted, calendar adjusted and seasonal and calendar adjusted indices are transmitted to Eurostat. If requested, indices are shared with all international and national instutions and researchers under data confidentiality rules.

All statistics collected and published by TURKSTAT are governed by the Turkish Statistical Law no. 5429, of 10 November 2005.

If the number of statistical units in any cell of the data table formed by aggregating the individual data is less than three, or if one or two of the statistical units are dominant even if the number of units is three or more, the data in the concerned cell is considered confidential. Confidential data can be published only when combined with other data so as not to allow any direct or indirect identification. All measures to prevent any illicit access, use or revelation of the confidential data shall be taken by the institutions and organisations producing official statistics.

The confidential data compiled, processed and preserved for the production of official statistics cannot be delivered to any administrative, judiciary or military authority or person, can not be used for purposes other than statistics or as an instrument of proof. Confidential data can be accessed only by persons involved in the production of official statistics, to the extent that they are needed for performing their duties properly.

At the end of each year TURKSTAT publishes a release calendar providing the release dates for the coming year. This is also disseminated on TURKSTAT’s internet website (http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/ingtakvim/tkvim.zul#tb1)

Publication dates and times of the press releases published by the Turkish Statistical Institute are available at https://www.tuik.gov.tr/Kurumsal/Veri_Takvimi

Simultaneous release to all interested parties:Data are released simultaneously to all interested parties by issuing the press release. The press release is subsequently&disseminated TURKSTAT’s Internet website.

Identification of internal government access to data before release:There is no special application for this item.

Transmission to Eurostat and further use of the statistics: Data is transmitted to Eurostat via Edamis4 by using SDMX-RI tools.

Monthly.

Under the Statistical Law, any data product prepared under that law must be identified. Technical commentaries prepared by TURKSTAT accompany the news release.

Turnover Indices news release can be accessed from the link below.

https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=sanayi-114&dil=1

Name of national electronic dissemination is "Turnover Indices".

The results of the index are disseminated in the publication "Turnover Indices” in English and Turkish via web site.

English version; https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/medas/

Micro-data access is not available to the public or private users.

Information requests at national and international level are supplied.

Unadjusted, calendar adjusted and seasonal and calendar adjusted series are transmitted to Eurostat at the same day with the press release. The transmission is done via EDAMIS4. The transferred data set is;

STSIND_TURN_M

Dissemination of documentation on methodology and sources used in preparing statistics: Dissemination of documentation on methodology and sources used in preparing statistics: Methodology and sources used in statistical compilation are disseminated on the Turkish Statistical Institute (TURKSTAT) website http://www.turkstat.gov.tr

Description of standard tables produced: Data are given as indices at the 2-digit NACE Rev. 2 level in the press releases. The following indices are compiled:

1) Total Industrial Turnover Index (2015=100)

2) Domestic Industrial Turnover Index (2015=100)

3) Non-Domestic Industrial Turnover Index (2015=100)

Not available.

Not announced to public or not published but some quality checks are made for accuracy and quality assesment of indices. These are;

1- Micro data and indices are examined by the group stuff by using sql codes in TOAD. 

Very high changes in companies' total, domestic and non-domestic turnover data are analyzed.

Impact and contribution analysis are done on enterprise basis by sectors.

Industrial turnover indices are detected for below criterias;

- Relevance; Getting opinions from users (public or private) about calculating indices and olso take technical support/advice from Eurostat stuff.

- Accuracy and reliability; Data source and results are regularly assessed and validated. Revisions to develop statistical process is analyzed regularly.

- Timeliness and punctuality; Dissemination of press release and indices date and time are announced to public at the beginning of the year. Can be accessed here. http://www.turkstat.gov.tr/ingtakvim/tkvim.zul#tb1 Possible deviations from the publishing calendar, and a new date is notified to the public.

- Comparability; All turnover indices are comparable with EU and other countries. Methodological studies are done with close cooperation between Eurostat.

- Coherence; Eurostat and other international disclosure standards are covered.

The main users of statistical information are Eurostat, State institutions and agencies, international organisations, the media, research and business communities, students. The users' needs are satisfied without a breach of the confidentiality principle.

Opinions from users (public or private) about calculating indices and technical support/advice from Eurostat staff always taken into consideration.

Data are compliant with EU Regulations and national laws.

Errors may be encountered due to incorrect coding of the activity at the source. Activity checks are made and enterprises that are found to have different activities from the activity specified in  the source data are identified.

At the same time, enterprises whose turnover is incompatible with the series are questioned and their reasons are tried to be determined.

As all the enterprises that submit VAT declarations to the Revenue Administration are included in the index calculation, there is no sampling error.

Not available because of the usage of administrative sources.

42 days. Results are published in an average of 42 days from the reference month.

Timetable of data collection: VAT and SCT declarations are compiled monthly from the Revenue Administration on the 1-5th day of the month.

The press releases are published according to the announced release calendar.

All turnover indices are comparable with EU and other countries. Methodological studies are done with close cooperation between Eurostat.

The same statistical definitions are applied in the entire Turkish national territory.

It is produced and disseminated at average t+43 days. Series of index starts from 2005, there are no breaks in the series.

Comparisons are made with previous STS-values (previous month and year), e-invoices and industrial production data.

There is internal consistency.

Cost and burden is not available because of administrative data usage.

In the series which are not seasonal and calendar adjusted;

            1. Index values are revised for previous two months with the release of current month,

            2. Index values are revised for last two years at the end of the reference period.

 In the series which are seasonal and calendar adjusted;

            1. Index values are revised each month for last three years,

            2. According to system and methodology, if there is a change; the model structure, parameters and outlier structure are modified in the end of each year. Therefore series are revised.

 Same revsion policy is applied nationally and in transmissions to Eurostat.

Provision of information about revision and advance notice of major changes in methodology: The press releases indicates that the data are preliminary and are subject to revision. The preliminary results are final at the end of two years. Any major changes in methodology are announced at the time of the change and the data compiled using the revised methodology is released.

Benchmarking: Not available

Data source is administrative records

VAT and SCT declarations received monthly from the Revenue Administration are used.

Data is taken from the revenue administration via File Transfer Protocol (FTP). Afterwards, validations  are done and the data is transferred to the database by the relevant IT unit . 

Monthly

VAT and SCT declarations are compiled monthly from the Revenue Administration via File Transfer Protocol (FTP).

Method of weighting: Not available

Sampling or full enumeration: Full enumeration

Micro data and indices are examined by using sql codes in TOAD. 

Estimates for non-response: Not available.

Estimates for grossing-up to population levels: Not available

Type of index: A simple index is used which is calculated by dividing the relevant levels by the base year averages.

The index is calculated and published in domestic, non domestic and total detail.

Method of weighting and chaining: Not available

Planned changes in production methods: Not available

Seasonal and calendar related effects prevent observing the general tendency of data because of their temporary characteristics. Therefore, identification of seasonal patterns of short term indicators plays crucial role in order to make reliable comparisons between consecutive periods 

Method Used

The seasonal adjustment of Turnover Indices is carried out using TRAMO-SEATS methodology. The software that is used for the application of this method is JDemetra+ 2.2.2 developed by the National Bank of Belgium (NBB) in cooperation with the Deutsche Bundesbank and Eurostat in accordance with the Guidelines of the European Statistical System.

Process of the seasonal adjustment

Seasonal and calendar adjustment process of Turnover Indices begins at the end of each year with the identification of the models of next year.  This specified model structure is kept fixed throughout the year to adjust seasonally and/or calendar effects. At the end of the year, just like the previous year, specification of econometric estimation models for the following year is done. The identified process repeats itself in a cyclical manner each year.

A substantial number of the subtitles of Turnover Indices contain seasonal and calendar effects. 

Direct or indirect seasonal adjustment

Seasonally and calendar adjusted figures of Turnover Indices are produced by indirect approach. Firstly the three digit NACE Rev2 classification individual subseries of Turnover Indices are seasonally adjusted and then aggregated to derive seasonally and calendar adjusted totals. The advantages of indirect approach are calculation of contributions to growth from components of main aggregates and retaining additivity.

Revision Policy

Seasonal adjustment procedure is subject to revisions over time because of the re-estimation of seasonal component as new observations are added. These revisions are implemented on the data of the last three years excluding the current year.

Publication

Adjusted data is published in 3 different ways.

- “Calendar adjusted” data is derived from unadjusted data by removing calendar and holiday originated effects. Calendar adjusted data should be used in comparisons regarding the same month/period of the previous year.

- “Seasonally adjusted” data is derived from unadjusted data by removing effects originating from seasonal effects. Seasonally adjusted data should be used in comparisons regarding the previous month/period.

- If unadjusted data contains both calendar and holiday, and seasonal effects, “seasonally and calendar adjusted” data is derived by removing these effects. Seasonally and calendar adjusted data should be used in comparisons regarding the previous month/period

• Residual seasonality is checked for 4-3-2 digit, section level and for each series
• Consistency are done amongst the different levels of breakdown

Additional information about seasonal adjustment can be found at the annexes part.

None.