Statistics Sweden.

Unit for Innovation, Business sector production and Research

Statistics Sweden
Solna strandväg 86, 171 54 Solna

The main purpose of the turnover indices is to measure the change in the turnover of all the sectors of the entire industry.

NACE Rev. 2.

The survey covers NACE Rev. 2. Sections B and C. The population of reference is based on kind-of-activity belonging to enterprises with 10 or more employees.

The turnover index shows the changes in turnover for industry in current prices.

The index is estimated using information on turnover collected through survey questionnaires.

In addition, turnover is calculated in constant prices for national purposes using producer price indicies.

Reporting unit: Kind-of-activity units. Observation unit: Kind-of-activity units.

The target population for the surveyed enterprises is kind-of-activity units with 10 employees or more in NACE Rev. 2. sections B and C.

The frame for identifying the population is the Swedish Statistical Business Register (SBR). The sample population is drawn in march.

The the target population consists of approximately 6 500 enterprises while the sample populations is approximately 2 000 Kind-of-Activity-Units.

Demographic changes are constantly maintained in the sample population where a change has to be entered into the SBR in order to be entered in the sample population. Demographic changes are e.g. bankruptcy of an enterprise, the purchase or selling of an enterprise in sample population, mergers etc.

All regions of Sweden are covered.

Data are available from 1970. However changes in methods, population definitions and base year have lead to breaks in the time series.

Currently data are available from 2000 until present time in price level 2015 and in gross, calendar and seasonally adjusted data as well as in non-adjusted current prices.

Base year is 2015.

The final result is an index with base year equal to 100. Data used as input is turnover in SEK.

The reference period is calendar month.

Official statistics in Sweden are governed by the Official Statistics Act of 2001 (2001:99) and by the Statutes of Statistics Sweden (SCB-FS 1997:27).

The legal basis for the short-term statistics is the European Business Statistics (EBS) Regulation (EU) 2019/2152 on 27 November 2019, followed by the Commission Implementing Regulation 2020/1197 laying down technical specifications and arrangements pursuant to the mentioned EBS Regulation (General Implementing Act).

Data is transmitted monthly to the UN as well as to Eurostat.

Statistics Sweden have policies in place in order to minimize the risk of disclosure and/or damage dealt to respondents in the survey.

The main rule is that groups with less than three enterprises are always treated as confidential. However that criteria may be weak in certain situations. Therefore Statistics Sweden have developed a program that estimates the probability of disclosure in each of the reporting groups. Based on the estimated probability of disclosure the potential damage of such an exposure is assessed by the statisticians involved in the production of data.

If data is under risk of disclosure, the first measure is cell suppression. If the risk of disclosure continues to recur in a certain cell, the second measure is aggregation of two or more similar cells.

Dates for the monthly statistical releases are determined one year in advance. The dates can be found on Statistics Sweden's website, www.scb.se.

Anyone can access the release calendar on Statistics Sweden's website. The release calendar can be found here.

Release is simultaneous to all interested parties. Users as well as the public can download the data and read the press release at the same time.

Data are transmitted to Eurostat.

The frequency of dissemination is monthly to all users.

There is news release regarding industrial turnover, only orders to industry.

The data is not disseminated in any publication.

Data is published in Statistics Swedens statistical databases on a pre-determined release calendar. The data base is available on-line to everyone. The database can be found here.

The data is released in the database for the total industry, main industrial groupings and industry sub-sectors.

Data is released in monthly and annual figures. Data in Statistics Swedens database is available in unadjusted current prices and for national purposes calendar adjusted constant prices, seasonally and calendar adjusted constant prices and trend figures. 

Micro-data making it possible to identify individual objects are not publicly released. Statstistics Sweden performs on request special processing of primary materials from previous surveys.

Researchers may apply to Statistics Sweden to get access to de-identified micro data for own processing purposes.

Final results are sent to Eurostat to be used in the compilation of european aggregates and to be released as national data.

Final results are also sent to the National Accounts Department within Statistics Sweden to be used in the compilation of quarterly national accounts.

Documentation about the survey is available in the form of Kvalitetsdeklaration (Quality declaration), Beskrivning av Statistiken - BaS (Description of the statistics), SCBDOK and Statistikens framställning (Documentation of statistics). Information on the final observation registries are stored in Statistics Sweden's database Meta Plus. All documentation is available in swedish on Statistics Sweden's website.

Criterias for quality assessment in Swedish official statistics are the European Statistics Code of Practice. Criterias for quality assessment in swedish official statistics are found in the documentation Kvalitet för den officiella statistiken (A Handbook on Quality for Official Statistics of Sweden). The documentation can be found at Kvalitet för den officiella statistiken – en handbok, version 2:2 (scb.se)

Statistics Sweden uses the EFQM Excellence Model from the European Foundation for Quality Management as a framwork for quality assurance.

Statistics Sweden is certified under the ISO 20252 standard.

Overall Statistics Sweden has a high level of quality. The turnover index is highly relevant both as an input to quarterly national accounts and stand-alone. The level of accuracy is high. Comparability over time is somewhat affected by methodological changes to increase the accuracy. It is comparable with other statistical domains primarily the quarterly national accounts.

Primary users and their needs are:

• National Accounts Department within Statistics Sweden: As input data in the quarterly national accounts compilation.
• Ministry of Finance, governmental agencies and the national central bank: Input data into forecasts of the national accounts as well as analysis of the economic development.
• Eurostat: Input data into analysis of the economy as well as the compilation of indicators and other statistics.
• Banks and financial institutes: Input data in analysis and forecast of the economic development.

Secondary users and their needs are:

• Researchers and students: Input data in research and education.
• Social actors: Analysis of the economic development.
• Media: Publishing and release of data.
• Enterprises/businesses: Analytical uses.

Statistics Sweden has general satisfaction surveys but no specific survey for the short-term statistics.

Views and opinions of the users are collected through user councils with two to four meetings per year. The members of the council represents the users of the statistics which is funded by grants produced by Statistics Sweden. The council has an advisory role regarding questions concerning new statistics, development and improvement of existing statistics and priorities for the coming financial year.

Direct contact with users is also a source for evaluating user satisfaction.

All Eurostat's requirements in terms of time series are fulfilled.

Errors in the Turnover Index may arise due to:

• Coverage errors
• Sampling errors
• Nonresponse
• Measurement errors
• Data processing
• Model assumptions

The Turnover Index is normally considered final about five months after the end of the reference period.

Data is revised so data changes after the first release. For the reference year 2015 the revisions for the first month after the first release were between -4,1 and 1,5 index units with a mean revision of -0,7 index units. Excluding the two largest revisions the revisions where between -2,5 and 0,5 index units with a mean of -0,6 index units.

The sample method is a stratified random sampling. Stratification variables are NACE Rev.2 activity and size of yearly turnover. The sample consists of seven size classes where size classes 1-4 are sampled, and 5-6 and 8 are censused. Size classes 1-4 consist of the smallest units and 5-6 of the largest units. Size class 8 consists of complex units consisting of two or more legal units. Size classes are created using the Dalenius-Hodges rule. Sample size in each stratum is determined using Neyman-allocation.

The turnover survey is a probability sampling survey for monthly estimates but a census on a quarterly basis. On a quarterly basis, data for units that is sampled using probability sampling is replaced by VAT-data for the part of the frame in size classes 1-4. Data for censused size classes are never replaced with VAT-data. Monthly estimates based on survey data only is then replaced.

Non-sampling errors may arise due to different factors such as:

Frame coverage: Undercoverage consists of newly established enterprises that, at the time of drawing of a sample, does not yet exist in the business register. Analog to undercoverage, overcoverage consists of enterprises that are closed down but have not yet been removed.

Measurement: Although sampling design is done at the enterprise level, measurement is done at the Kind-of-activity level. Enterprises are asked to provide information on the parts active in the industrial sector. Enterprises may therefore mistakenly include information on total turnover instead of the industrial turnover.

Survey-instrument: The Turnover Index is estimated from deflated deliveries. Deliveries are collected through a survey of enterprises. For the surveyed enterprises a large majority of the surveyed units report through an electronic questionnaire, although a small number still report on a paper questionnaire.

Unit and item nonresponse: The weighted unit response rate for the deliveries is approximately 84 percent the first time a reference period is estimated.

Imputation: Unit and item nonresponse are dealt with using imputation in order to compensate for the nonresponses.

Data is released no later than one month plus 10 days after the end of the reference period with exception of the reference month of june which is released a few days later. All aggregation levels and sub-sectors are released at the same time.

Data collection

Questionnaires are sent to the reporting units at the end of the month of the reference period asking for replies by the 15th of the following month. Data collection is normally closed 3 days before publication.

100 percent of the releases have been done on time.

The same statistical concepts are applied in the entire Swedish national territory. No geographical discrepancies exist.

Comparability over time is mostly affected by changes in changes in NACE classification system. The transistion from NACE Rev.1.1 to NACE Rev.2 meant that other publishing industry and  the recycling industry are not included in the industry.

At the transition from NACE Rev.1.1 to NACE Rev.2 the Turnover Index was re-estimated back to 2000.

In NACE Rev.1.1 a time series exist from 1990M01 to 2008M12.

In NACE Rev.2 a a time series exist from 2000M01 to current.

In the time series no differences in length exist between monthly, quarterly and yearly data.

The turnover index can be compared with the Industrial Production Index since data used in the Turnover index is used to estimate and calculate the Industrial Production Index.

No internal incoherence exists in the Turnover Index.

In total Statistics Sweden estimates that 500 working hours per year is associated with the work at Statistics Sweden for the collection, estimation, calculation and presentation of the Turnover Index.

The burden on respondents is estimated to approximately 5600 hours per year. The costs are associated both with national requirements and specific STS-requirements althought the proportions are not known.

Routine revisions are made for two to four months prior to the current month depending on which month in the quarter the reference month is. The whole previous qaurter is revised in connection with the publishing of the first and second month in a quarter. Revisions for previous periods are released at the same time as the release of a new period.

The same revision policy is applied nationally and in transmissions to Eurostat.

The turnover Index is a chain-index, so no revisions occur due to regular base year changes (i.e. the rebasing that is carried out every fifth year due to STS requirements).

Major revisions may occur due to methodological changes. Methodological changes are announced in advance.

Non-scheduled revisions, i.e. unexpected revisions may occur due to errors discovered in the input data after results are considered definitive, if deemed necessary due to the magnitude of the error. Non-schedule revisions may also occur between normal releases if errors of a greater magnitude are discovered shortly after release.

Vintages are stored but not published, they are however provided upon request.

Some benchmarking occur among the surveys within the Business Cycle Statistics for Industry including Industrial Production Index, Orders and Turnover in Industry, Industrial Inventories. Since these statistics are collected and compiled at the same time, benchmarking occur in the compilation stage and does not lead to revisions. 

Data in the questionnaire is collected for the last three periods which introduces revisions. Enterprises revising previously submitted data also introduces revisions.

Users are informed in advance of methodological and other changes which may lead to revisions. The information is included in the press release the month before the changes will come in to effect. Users are not informed in advance of the actual revisions.

No special revision calendar exists and revisions are published at the same time as figures for new months. The same revision policy is applied to data released nationally and transmitted to Eurostat.

Mean Absolute Revision (MAR) and Mean Revision (MR):

The computed values for the last 36 monthly (Jan 2020 - Dec 2022) for turnover in industry (NACE B+C) are:

Growth rates for calendar/working day adjusted data series (YoY):

MAR = 2.13 , MR = -0.65

Stratified random sample survey on kind-of-activity units. Approximately 98 percent of the enterprises use an electonic questionnaire and approximately 2 percent use paper questionnaires. Stratification variables are NACE Rev.2 activity and size of yearly turnover. Size classes are created using the Dalenius-Hodges rule.

Sample size in each strata is determined using Neyman-allocation. The two largest strata are censused and the four smallest one are sampled. Complex units i.d. Enterprises consisting of two or more legal units are always censused.

The frame and sample population is updataded in march each year.

All data is collected on a monthly basis. All data refers to the full refererence period.

Collected through random sampling survey. Most enterprises (approximately 98 percent) use an on-line questionnaire although a few (approximately 2 percent) use a paper questionnaire. New enterprises in the survey are contacted through regular mail with information and login information. Each month, after the end of the reference period, login information is sent to the enterprises through regular mail reminding them of the survey. A reminder is sent out around 15 days after the first contact. Import and/or larger enterprises are reminded especially if they have not yet responded at the end of the collection phase. During the production phase enterprises are contacted in order to get data from important and/or larger enterprises. Contact is primarily through phone and e-mail. The survey has a sanction system with a penalty for not responding.

Data are "checked-in" in multiple steps:

1. Data that passes a set of formal requirements, e.g. no negative values, no decimals etc, is put through a specially designed program called Selekt. Selekt evalutes the deviation from previously reported values and weight them with the effect they would have if they are in fact wrong. The enterprises are ranked according to the possibility that the reported values are wrong and how large the effect would be. Values are approved by a collection specialist or a re-contact is taken in order to ensure values.

2. Estimated data is the checked on a macro level by an expert on the subject matter. Data is check against previous time periods, both reported and imputed values.

3. Refined data i.e. various forms of unadjusted and adjusted indices are checked versus aggregated micro data.

4. Final results are checked against previous time periods and aggregated micro-data. If available results are checked against other information available e.g. other surveys describing the "same" and similar phenomenons.

Final results are "checked-out" in multiple steps:

1. A program creates the file to be transmitted ensuring format and file structure.

2. The file is checked by an expert ensuring that all data is included and correct. Some manual corrections regarding confendiality is carried out.

3. After the data is transferred to Eurostat the file is followed until it is "acknowledged" by Eurostat.

Missing observations from unit and item non-responses are delt with by using automatic imputations carried out by the estimation programs.

The estimator is an Horvitz-Thompson type of estimator combined with VAT-information. Sampled enterprises are replaced with turnover based on VAT-data when quarterly turnover data is available. Censused units are never replaced with turnover from VAT.

Turnover based on VAT doess not only apply sample units in stratas that are sampled, but all units in the frame so the survey is a census on a quarterly basis. 

The index method is a chained Laspeyre-index with weights updated each year using annual overlap.

Weights used in the index cacultations are value added from the Structural Business Statistics modified by the National Accounts. Updated yearly.

A program developed by Statistics Sweden fetches data from the internal databases and converts it to SDMX in order to transmit the the data to Eurostat.

Calendar adjustment

A country specific calendar is used. Moving holidays that are adjusted are easter and the feast of the Ascension. Leap year effects are adjusted for. Calendar effects are adjusted for regARIMA.

Other pre-adjustent

RegARIMA to detect all types of outliers (AO, TC, and LS). For example LS outlier in Dec 2008 because of the finance crisis.

Seasonal ajustment

The software used is X-12-ARIMA in SAS® system (PROC X12) with SAS 9.3. The model/filter selection is manual for ARIMA models and automatically chosen (default) filter.

Both additive and multiplicative models are used for different series as seasonal adjustment composition. The models are checked for adequacy. The critical value for outlier detection is predefined (3.5). The filter length is automatically chosen. No seasonal breaks are entered into the series to methodological changes.

Since series are directly adjusted some inconsistencies may exist where the development in an aggregate may not be the exact sum of the underlying indices.

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