Statistics Lithuania

Short Term Business Statistics Division

29 Gedimino Ave., LT–01500 Vilnius, Lithuania

The Industrial Production Index (IPI) measures the real monthly change of production in mining and quarrying, manufacturing, electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning, water supply sectors. The IPI is based on the deflated turnover.

Indicator of the monthly change in the volume of industrial production assuming constant technology and unchanging input structure. The index is compiled according to Regulations of the European Council concerning short-term statistics and classifications as well as concepts and methods of the Methodology of Short -term Business Statistics, Interpretation and Guideline

National version (EVRK Rev. 2) of the Statistical Classification of Economic Activities in the European Community (NACE Rev. 2)

IPI covers economic activities listed in Sections B to E36 of NACE Rev. 2, all size classes are covered.

The definition of IPI includes the sales value of industrial  production from industrial activity invoiced by the reporting unit during the reference period (without VAT and excises) and work done by enterprises working by subcontracting. Enterprises working by subcontracting provide separate data on unpaid raw materials (contingent valuation, if enterprise does not have true value), which are added to the work done.  It is done, because subcontractors sometimes produce commodities from own materials, and to avoid big fluctuation in IPI case unpaid raw materials are evaluated. 

According Rules for specific activities of NACE Rev.2 a principal which completely or partly outsources the transformation process is classified under manufacturing in same manufacturing activities as a contractor is classified, because it owns the raw material as input to the production process and therefore owns the final output.

VAT and all other taxes, which fall on products and services when they leave the factory, are also excluded.

The calculation of the IPI at constant prices is based on the producer price index. Monthly results are compared with the results of the previous of the reporting month and a corresponding month of the previous year, as well as with the average month of the base year.

The index is compiled according to Regulations of the European Council concerning short-term statistics and classifications as well as concepts and methods of the Methodology of Short -term Business Statistics, Interpretation and Guidelines (Eurostat).

KAU

The frame of industrial enterprises in operation extracted from Statistical Business Register includes enterprises of all legal forms and ownerships, the main activity of which according to the NACE Rev. 2  classified in Sections B to E36. The frame is fixed for one year.

Population in 2022 is 9493 operating enterprises (Sections B to E36).

The geographical coverage of the IPI is whole territory of Lithuania.

A few enterprises in turnover include services purchased from third countries, since the full price of the products sold (As an example, the further dissolution of the main component of the pharmaceutical product, produced in the national territory, then takes out abroad to make required condition and its dosing and packaging). There are also companies that perform industrial services abroad, but they pay salaries in Lithuania and a part of their production/or services is sold/provided to Lithuania.

The length of the time series  is since January 1998.

Base year 2015=100

Indices are transmitted to Eurostat.

Nationally data  on industrial production  are published in absolute figures (thousand EUR), indices and percentage changes. 

Month

Council Regulation (EC) No 1165/98 of May 1998 concerning short-term statistics, as last amended by Commission Regulation (EC) No 461/2012 of 31 May 2012;

Regulation (EU) 2019/2152 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 27 November 2019 on European business statistics, repealing 10 legal acts in the field of business statistics (Text with EEA relevance);  

Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2020/1197 of 30 July 2020 laying down technical specifications and arrangements pursuant to Regulation (EU) 2019/2152 of the European Parliament and of the Council on European business statistics repealing 10 legal acts in the field of business statistics (Text with EEA relevance)     

Data are sent to OECD, UN, IMF and other international organisations.

Law on Statistics of the Republic of Lithuania.

Regulation (EC) No 223/2009 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 11 March 2009 on European statistics and repealing Regulation (EC, Euratom) No 1101/2008 of the European Parliament and of the Council on the transmission of data subject to statistical confidentiality to the Statistical Office of the European Communities, Council Regulation (EC) No 322/97 on Community Statistics, and Council Decision 89/382/EEC, Euratom establishing a Committee on the Statistical Programmes of the European Communities (OJ 2009 L87, p. 164). 

In the process of statistical data collection, processing and analysis and dissemination of statistical information, Statistics Lithuania fully guarantees the confidentiality of the data submitted by respondents (households, enterprises, institutions, organisations and other statistical units), as defined in the Confidentiality Policy Guidelines of Statistics Lithuania.

Description of Statistical Disclosure Control Methods, approved by Order No DĮ-124 of 27 May 2008 of the Director General of Statistics Lithuania;

Integrated Statistical Information System Data Security Regulations and Rules for the Secure Management of Electronic Information in the Integrated Statistical Information System, approved by Order No DĮ-42 of 20 February 2015 of the Director General of Statistics Lithuania.

Where the respondent about whom or whose activity results the primary statistical data have been collected may be directly or indirectly identified on the basis of official statistical data, such official statistical data shall be confidential and protected in the manner prescribed by laws.

Statistical information is published in accordance with an Official Statistics Calendar, release dates are announced one year in advance.

Official Statistics Calendar

Statistical information is published on the Official Statistics Portal according to an Official Statistics Calendar, following the Official Statistics Dissemination Policy Guidelines and Statistical Information Preparation and Dissemination Rules.

Monthly, quarterly and annual.

The IPI is published in a press release on the 23st calendar day after the end of the reporting month in Lithuanian and English.

Data on totals and detailed breakdowns are disseminated in absolute figures (thousand EUR), indices and growth rates (unadjusted, calendar or seasonally adjusted) for national users.

Busines in Lithuania , Lithuania in Figures

Data on the monthly IPI (2015=100) at the 2-digit NACE level and above, MIGs, gross, calendar and seasonal adjusted data are accessed in the Database of Indicators (Business statistics -> Industry -> Industrial production).

Microdata are available and provided for scientific purposes according to the provisions set in the Description of Procedures for the Provision of Confidential Statistical Data for Scientific Purposes. More information is available on the Official Statistics Portal.

Public data files: users are also provided with opportunity to access public files with statistical data on observation units. More information is available on the Official Statistics Portal.

Eurostat‘s database

The process of the preparation of statistical information is described in the industrial enterprise activity statistical survey methodology (only in Lithuanian).

Metadata  for IPI is prepared each month and disseminated on the Official Statistics Portal.

The quality of statistical information and its production process is ensured by the provisions of the European Statistics Code of Practice and ESS Quality Assurance Framework. 

In 2007, a quality management system, conforming to the requirements of the international quality management system standard ISO 9001, was introduced at Statistics Lithuania. The main trends in activity of Statistics Lithuania aimed at quality management and continuous development in the institution are established in the Quality Policy. Monitoring of the quality indicators of statistical processes and their results and self-evaluation of statistical survey managers is regularly carried out in order to identify the areas which need improvement and to promptly eliminate the shortcomings.

The system for measurement and monitoring of performance quality implemented at Statistics Lithuania allows making expeditious decisions, based on impartial information, which are important for the improvement of performance, detection and elimination of drawbacks.

Statistics Lithuania uses the following tools for quality monitoring and assurance:

- Monitoring of performance indicators (comprising ESS quality indicators, the response burden and indicators related to time used for different statistical processes),

- Self-assessment of survey managers (based on DESAP (European checklists for survey managers)),

- Statistical audits,

- Testing of previously approved statistical questionnaires.

The monthly survey, collecting information, is submitted to the quality requirements, consistent with the standard quality components of European Statistical System, namely: relevance, accuracy, timeliness and punctuality, accessibility, clarity, comparability, coherence.

The main users of statistical information are State and municipal authorities and agencies, Eurostat, international organisations, the media, research and business community, students, whose needs are satisfied without a breach of the confidentiality principle.

From 2005, user opinion surveys have been conducted on a regular basis. Official Statistics Portal traffic is monitored; website visitor opinion polls, general opinion poll on the products and services of Statistics Lithuania, target user group opinion polls and other surveys are conducted. In 2007, the compilation of a user satisfaction index was launched. The said surveys are aimed at the assessment of the overall demand for and necessity of statistical information in general and specific statistical indicators in particular.

The System of user-satisfaction surveys covers three Internet-related user surveys:

1. Internet accessibility (monthly, quarterly);

2. Users registered to the Alert-me web services (monthly, quarterly);

3. Opinion survey of web visitors (monthly);

The Methodology for evaluation of the Customer satisfaction index was approved in January 2008. It relates to the Code of Practice four quality characteristics: relevance, sufficiency, clarity, reliability, as well as quality and one of the national interests on visibility of the official statistics. Users themselves rate the listed characteristics according to the importance. The satisfaction index has been calculated from results of the annual General public opinion polls on Image perception. The identified shortcomings and treatment of Customer satisfaction surveys are an effective means to respond to user needs and improve quality of products and services.

Special survey of user satisfaction of IPI users isn't conducted.

Production index is produced by sections B to E36 as well as production indices broken down by industrial activities on 2-digit level of NACE Rev.2. and MIG. Activities 05, 07 and 09 of NACE Rev. 2  (not relevant to Lithuania).

Time series are available since January 1998.

Sampling design is stratified simple random sampling. Criteria for stratification: the characteristics used for stratification are the NACE Rev. 2 3-digit level and the number of persons employed. Enterprises are stratified by groups (3-digit level of NACE Rev.2) and then in each group they are stratified by number of persons employed. 

Calculating the ratio estimates of statistical data analysis evaluating outliers, the data is edited. The overall accuracy rate is high, the error significantly lower than the recommended for business statistics.

Estimates of errors not related to the sample are negligible.  Response rate in the 1-st publication is closed to 90 per cent.

To calculate the estimates Horvitz-Thompson estimator is using, that is unbiased.

The accuracy of the estimates is reached by eliminating non-sampling errors, such as coverage, non-response, response mistakes and processing errors, also by calculating sampling error.

Coverage errors appear by reasons of misclassification of  units and changes in state of reporting units.

It is compulsory to respond to the survey. In case of non-response,the data are estimated.

The sampling error in percent is calculated for main indicators of survey and published monthly.

A coefficient of variation is used as a measure of the precision of an estimate. 

Estimates of errors not related to the sample are negligible. 

The first IPI compiled with a response rate of 90%; the final indicator is calculated when the response rate reaches 99.1 %. 

For estimation of non-response is used additional information from the Tax Inspectorate.

Business Register: possible incorrect registration of the kind of activity of NACE in the business register, relatively part of misclassification are small units.

Under-coverage, over-coverage impact is insignificant, it cannot be evaluated exactly. In the case of a large enterprise, it is included in the sample with a weight 1.

No models are used. 

Impact of the Data editing and Data imputation is small, for imputation is used additional information from the Tax Inspectorate.

Ratio estimator – approximately unbiased.

Item non-response rate (last publication of IPI)

Unit non-response rate (last publication of IPI)

The data are collected monthly from reporting units on the 10th calendar day of each month. Statistical information is published on the 23nd day after the end of the reference month.

Statistical information is published in accordance with an Official Statistics Calendar. 

100 per cent of statistical information is released on time.

The Industrial Production Index is comparable with other EU Member States IPI. Definitions and classifications applied accordance requirements of EU regulations.

Industrial Production Index data is fully comparable over minimum standard time for countries accordance requirements of EU Regulations. All methodological changes and changes in base year data in time series are made IPI comparable in time.

Industrial Production Index: tendencies of the values  in coherence with SBS, PRODCOM, survey on Business Tendency in Manufacturing . The sale of industrial production (it's a part of Turnover) is comparable to some other sources in business statistics and is use to some purposes.

1. Comparison with related variables: Monthly IPI results are compared with a monthly survey on the production of manufactured goods (monthly PRODCOM survey).  

2. Comparison in time - with the results from previous month and corresponding month of the previous year.

3. Quarterly comparison with data on enterprises level and total activities with the quarterly financial results of the survey, which is prepared for the quarterly  national accounts.

4. Comparison with annual SBS data: compare variable Income  and the definition of financial indicator Income  is  slightly different from the definition of IPI, then general trends by total activities are compared. Besides, it takes into account the reduction of the administrative burden on enterprises to produce an annual survey ant to calculate revised variable of the IPI is not available.

5. The tendencies of IPI of the STS survey are compared with  Business Tendency Survey in Manufacturing.

6. The IPI from STS survey is used for the first estimate of the quarterly  gross domestic product.

Values of indicator are coherent. The higher level aggregations are derived from detailed values according to well-defined procedures. Industrial Production Index is partly in coherence with administrative VAT data.

The cost is determinated for statistical survey in total and it is not possible to calculate for the each separate  indicator.

Costs (SL) 13117 hours per year (for  Production, Turnover and Labour input indicators).

Burden (for variables Production, Turnover and Hours worked) 17061 hours per year.

Revisions of statistical indicators are performed in accordance with the General Principles behind the Performance, Analysis and Announcement of Revisions of Statistical Indicators. Users are informed about scheduled revisions in advance through a Calendar of Scheduled Revisions of Statistical Indicators (in Lithuanian).

The same revision policy is applied to IPI data released nationally and transmitted to Eurostat.

Long-term planned (major) revisions are conducted after amendments in legal acts, due to changes in the base year, methodology and classifications entail revisions. The time series from 1Q 1998 are back-casted.

Short-term planned revisions:

First revision to  revise data of previous period due the needs of users for timely and qualitative information and to complete new answers for  previous period to reduce non-response.

Second revision is  on the end of the year for all month and  based on more complete answers (additionally use other sources: surveys and/or administrative data). 

Seasonal adjustment models are revised once a year, data are revised for current year and 3 years backwards.

Data revisions were made for IPI:

Long-term planned (major) revisions were conducted due to changes in the base year. The time series from 1Q 1998 were back-casted.

Short-term planned revisions:

every reference month was revised previous month;

in the end of the year were revised all indices for all months;

seasonal and calendar adjustment model was revised, data on IPI were revised for current year and 3 years backwards.

The first data published on 23st day is provisional, every next month the previous period is revised and last revised data is published after the revision of all monthly  data  in the end of the year and  as  final is  published in January.

The revised data are published as “Revised data” in the Statistical Databases of Statistics Lithuania when they are stated final. 

There is no vintage database.

*As compared to the corresponding month of the previous year

** As compared to the previous month 

Data set is based on a statistical survey. The survey is conducted using a sampling method.

A new sample is drawn every year.

The sampling frame is based on information about enterprises in operation, their economic activity and the number of persons employed from the Statistical Business Register.

Sampling design is stratified simple random sampling.

The characteristics used for stratification are the NACE Rev. 2 3-digit level and the number of persons employed.

No threshold is applied.

2634 enterprises were included in the sample in 2022.

The sample sizes in stratum (persons employed classes):

1-9: 31.5 per cent

10-49: 35.5 per cent

50 and more: all enterprises, 100 per cent

Month

One common questionnaire (Monthly industrial enterprise activity report P-11) regarding turnover, turnover by Domestic and non-Domestic markets, non-Domestic market is split into euro area and the non-euro area, production sold from industrial activity, excise taxes, hours worked is used for sections B and C.

For sections D and E customized questionnaires are used: Monthly natural gas supply report PD-11, Monthly electrical energy generation report PEG-11, Monthly electrical energy transmission report PEP-11, Monthly electrical energy distribution and supply report PET-11, Monthly heat generation and distribution report PŠ-11, Monthly water collection and distribution report PV-11.

Data collection methods: Electronic questionnaires can be downloaded on the SL’s Internet website and filled in on-line or sent by e-mail. Non-responding enterprises previously filled electronic questionnaires on-line reminders receive on-line.

Verification of data: Data are checked on enterprise level (micro level) and on macro level. If necessary, the data are verified by contacting the reporting unit. For verification, visual and logical controls are used.

Verification of processing: Staffs regularly review the compilation process comparing the indices at various stages of compilation with other market information or using personal judgement. Exceptional variations in the indices are followed on a case-by-case basis.

Staffs of Regional statistics divisions carry out verification of the primary data received using data control program designed for the monthly checks against errors and mistakes.

Staffs of Short Term Business statistics division carry out secondary control, check outliers, check data with other surveys in consistency with other indicators of industrial production. As part of the review process, the staffs check that the movements of the indices are in line with the quantity data of individual products, external trade.

Before  sending to Eurostat, data file is validated and converted into SDMX_ML format using SDMX Converter Tool. The data file is transmitted to Eurostat in STSIND domain by eDAMIS.

Comparisons are made with monthly turnover (VAT declaration from Taxes authority), quarterly turnover from enterprise financial survey, and PRODCOM data as well as annual SBS.

The non-responding enterprises are assessed on the basis of administrative sources – the monthly value added tax declaration produced by the State Tax Inspectorate. Whereas data from State Tax Inspectorate is only the previous month, then data is recalculated to the working days of the reference month. When non-respondents are known to be normal working enterprises and data of previous month exist, data of the previous month is recalculated to the working days of the reference month. If the data of previous month is unknown, the average value for the strata is imputed. The weighting factors are adjusted for other non-respondents.

Procedures for non-response: Imputation is used to treat for non-response.  The State Tax Inspectorate data is used for the estimation of data on the enterprises that have not responded as well as earlier known values of production sold by the enterprise recalculated to working days of the reporting month. The weighting factors are adjusted for other non-respondents.

Calculation of the Industrial Production Index in constant prices is based on the turnover (sales from industrial activity) deflated by the producer price index, base year 2015=100. Monthly production sold from industrial activity at current prices (VAT and excises excluded) sold by enterprises during the reporting month is recalculated at constant prices (2015=100) applying the producer price index (2015=100). The volume of production sold during the reference month is divided by the volume of production sold during preceding month at constant prices (without VAT and excises). This is done at the 4-digit level of NACE Rev.2.

Turnover (sales from industrial activity) include the total sales value of the product invoiced by the reporting unit during the reference period (without VAT and excises) and work done by enterprises working by subcontracting. Enterprises working by subcontracting provide separate data on unpaid raw and materials (contingent valuation, if enterprise not has true value), which are added to the work done. 

The deflated 4-digit NACE level data are progressively aggregated to higher levels and divided by the constant price data at the corresponding level in the previous period to obtain the 3-, 2-digit NACE level indices and overall index (of these only the latter two are published). Separate indices are compiled at the aggregate level for mining, quarrying and manufacturing, electricity, gas and water supply, and Main Industrial Groups (MIGs).

To eliminate the influence of the number of days worked, adjustment of the time series with JDemetra + (version 2.2.2) is performed, the TRAMO / SEATS method is used. The Ecotrim program is applied to balance the data. The time series seasonal adjustment model is established for one year and is updated once a year, with all data for the months of the reference year. Seasonal and calendar factors are evaluated in the modelling. Regressors of working days, leap years are used. Exceptions are identified and adjusted; the calendar of Lithuanian public holidays is taken into account. Number of excretions, statistical characteristics of the residues (seasonality of the residues, independence, normality, etc.) are checked when approving the results obtained. Seasonal adjustment is carried out using the recommendations laid down in “ESS Guidelines on seasonal adjustment (2015)“.

None