National Institute for Statistics (Istat)

Directorate for Business Statistics (DCSE)

Division for short-term business statistics (SED)

Via Tuscolana, 1788; 00173 Rome, Italy

Industrial production index (Indice della produzione industriale).

The survey describes the development of productive activity in Italy through the collection of production volumes.

From January 2022 the indices are calculated as annual chain-linked indices instead of fixed base indices. The weighting reference is 2021, while the reference base is still the year 2015.

The innovations introduced concern: the updating of the sample of companies used in the survey and the revision of the weighting system.

NACE Rev.2.

Activities covered: Sections B, C and D except for Divisions 05, 07 and 09 (347 series). The coverage for Section C is 100 percent at the two-digit, about 100 percent  at three-digit level, and 98 percent at the four-digit level of industrial value added.
Product coverage: Industrial goods classified in Sections B, C and D. Almost the whole of 614 elementary macro-products for which index numbers are calculated  have a coverage of  about 65% in terms of value of production in each Class (4-digit level).

Size classes covered: Units employing 20 employees or more. In some activities lower thresholds apply.

List and definition of variables: The index shows the evolution of gross production in volume terms. For year 2022, information is collected on 10,000 basic observations for about 1,000 products.

The percentage of products (represented by the weights on the overall index) measured in physical quantities units is preponderant (76.6%), followed by products measured in hours worked (13.6%) and by those measured in production value (9.8%).

Planned changes in information collected: None.

Accounting conventions: The target variable is measured as a flow during the calendar month. Products which need more than a month for the production are recorded in value or in worked hours only for the part accrued to the reference period. Production in value is deflated by output prices. Hours worked are adjusted with productivity coefficients based on short-term indicators.

Reporting unit: KAU or local unit KAU.

Observation unit(s): Unit of homogeneous production (UHP) or Local unit of homogeneous production (LUHP).

Target population corresponds to enterprises with 20 or more employees in 2015 for sections covered by this survey.  Total number is about  30,000 enterprises.

Whole national territory.

The Industrial production survey was established in 1928. Series of indices with base 2015=100 start from January 1990.

The introduction of the chain method basis has not changed the reference base of the data which remains the year 2015.

Index

Month

Legal basis

National level: This is one of the compulsory surveys fixed every year by a Decree of the President of the Republic (D.P.R.).

European level:

The legal basis for the STS indicators are the Regulation (EU) 2019/2152 of the European Parliament and of the Council on European business statistics, repealing 10 legal acts in the field of business statistics (EBS-Regulation) and the Commission Implementing Regulation 2020/1197 laying down technical specifications and arrangements pursuant to Regulation (EU) 2019/2152 (General Implementing Act).

Obligation on units to provide data: Surveys are mandatory. Penalties are foreseen for non-response.

Planned changes in legal basis, obligation to respond and frame used: None.

Not available

Several national legal acts guarantee the confidentiality of data requested for statistical purposes. According to art. 9, paragraph 1 of the Legislative Decree n. 322 of 1989, personal data can only be disseminated in aggregate form, in order to make it impossible to identify individuals. The Personal Data Protection Code (introduced by the Legislative Decree no. 196 of 30 June 2003) provides special rules concerning the processing of personal data for statistical purposes within the National Statistical System (Sistan). Further, in order to make statistical secrecy and protection of personal data effective, Istat is currently taking appropriate organisational, logistical, methodological and statistical measures in accordance with internationally established standards.

Links to relevant legal acts on statistics are also listed on the website of Sistan (http://www.sistan.it).

Survey elementary data are treated as confidential. Aggregated data are disseminated in https://www.istat.it.

Some variables can be transmitted to Eurostat as confidential when they are not disseminated in Italy (13 of 347 series are confidential as well as the 614 elementary macro-product index).  All non confidential data, from Nace Rev.2 four digit up to General Index, are available on I.stat.

Every year, in December Istat publishes a release calendar providing the precise release dates for the coming year.
During the first part of the year the required one-quarter-ahead approximate release dates are disseminated on the Internet on the "IMF's Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board".

The release  calendar is disseminated on  ISTAT website: https://www.istat.it/en/information-and-services/journalists/press-releases-/press-calendar.

Data are released simultaneously to all interested parties by issuing the press release "Produzione industriale" which is provided, on an embargo basis, to the media 30 minutes prior to general release. The press release (Italian version and English version) is subsequently posted on the Istat's website.

Data are transmitted to Eurostat by teletransmission no later than 40 days from the end of the reference month.

If the National release is scheduled later than the Eurostat transmission, time data are sent to Eurostat under embargo. Data are sent in xml file according SDMX standard and disseminated as national data in the Eurostat's database (Eurobase, theme Industry, trade and services, sub-theme Short-term business statistics).

Monthly

A monthly press release "Produzione industriale" where figures and tables are disseminated with the data to facilitate the analysis. Analysis of current-period developments is included with dissemination. The Italian version of the Industrial production press release includes also a data file, the weighting structure, a methodological note.
A set of revision measures can be found at http://www.istat.it/en/economic-trends

Press releases: http://www.istat.it/en/archive/industrial+production

Data are made available also through a statistical yearbook: Annuario Statistico Italiano (Italian version)

Data are disseminated in I.Stat database (I.Stat), theme 'Industry and Construcion', sub theme 'Industrial- Industrial production index- Monthly data (base 2015)'.
The on-line database I.Stat is open and free, statistics are organised by theme in a two-level hierarchical tree. Data are presented in aggregate form in multidimensional tables; acting on variables, reference periods and the arrangement of heads and sides users can create custom tables and graphs. The system can be searched by keyword.

A wide range of standard metadata facilitates the retrieval and understanding of statistics by users.

More information available in the User Guide 

Before data dissemination, validated microdata are stored in the repository of the Institute, ARMIDA.
The repository ARMIDA (Archive of validated microdata) was established with the main objective of preserving and documenting the data produced by Istat surveys, and has subsequently supported the objective of disseminating data. The data archived in ARMIDA supplies, in fact, the different channels for the dissemination of microdata (for internal use at the Institute through the "Memorandum of access to microdata of ARMIDA, internal users ", for authorities in Sistan, for research files, for standard files, etc.).

This index is also one of the 'Principal European Economic Indicators (PEEIs)'.

A short description of the methodology and characteristics of the survey is contained in the technical explanatory note attached to the press release updated regularly.
Generally, major changes in methodology are announced a short period in advance in the publication Note Informative (last updating of the base year 2015=100 have been announced in the March 19, 2018 edition).

A description of methodology and sources used in preparing statistics is also contained in the Information System for Survey Documentation and Quality Control (Siqual); it is available on Istat's website. This system manages qualitative information related to each single phase of a survey's production process (SIQual).

More information about procedures applied for quality management and quality assessment in the document "Quality Guidelines For Statistical Processes" - December 2012

Essential points of Istat quality policy are: process quality, product quality, documentation, respect for respondents, strengthening of statistical literacy, users' orientation.

For more details: https://www.istat.it/en/organisation-and-activity/institutional-activities/quality-commitment

As regards main issues of quality, index is compliant with a good standard. Eurostat's requirements in terms of time series are fulfilled, timeliness is respected, cross-domain checks are used for monitoring a good level of coherence.

Some information on data quality are available in SIQual.

Main users of industrial production index are:

- Institutions: government departments, ECB, national central bank, international organisations, etc.
- Social actors: employers' organisations, trade unions, lobby groups, etc.
- Media
- Researchers & students
- Enterprises/businesses
- Internal users
- Eurostat

Not available.

Eurostat's requirements in terms of time series are fulfilled.

The samples are designed with the cut-off method and therefore sampling errors cannot be measured. Non-sampling errors are reduced or eliminated in the collection phase both using an electronic questionnaire that helps debugging and aiming at an increase of the response rate of enterprises.

It is not possible to compute sampling errors because a non-probability sampling method (cut-off) is used.

When the first provisional data are released, the weighted overall response rate for the period 2019-2022 was 95,8%; while for  year 2022 only was 97,0%.
To speed up and increase the rate of response reminders and intensive follow ups by phone are addressed to the MIB (Main Industrial Business) units. These units are the most significant (in terms of production realised in the year before that of reference) for the specific products concerned.

The official release is published on average 40 days after the end of the reference period; data are transmitted to EUROSTAT within 40 days, using, when needed, an embargo clause; data are provisional at the time of the Press Release in which they are reported.Until 2021 these revisions typically occurred when releasing the indices concerning the month of February and incorporated both the new estimates of the short-term statistics for the three previous years and the corrections based on the late responses received and on the corrections to already received information.
Starting from year 2022 retrospective revisions concern the previous year only.

All releases delivered according to the timetable.

European definitions are used and they apply in the whole national territory 

Consistent time series data are available for a long period of time (since January 1990). When changes in source data, methodology and statistical techniques are introduced, historical series are reconstructed as far back as possible. 

Comparisons are made with the evolution of turnover. Results for these comparisons show good level of coherence for main aggregates.

Raw data ggregates are always consistent with their sub-aggregates but for seasonally adjusted and calendar adjusted data internal coherence  is not ensured as seasonally adjustment direct method is used.

The cost estimate is compiled in terms of total number of hours worked (THW). It is equal to the product of three terms: (total) Annual Working Days (AWD), (total) Hours Worked per Day (HWD), Number of Persons involved in the Survey (NPS).

The burden estimate is compiled in terms of total number of minutes (TNM) taken to fill in the (web) questionnaire. The burden is applied to respondent, i.e. the person who fills in the questionnaire on behalf of the enterprise. To estimate it, two elements have been taken into account. The former distinguishes between beginner and expert respondent, to point out respectively the person who fills in the web questionnaire for the first time and the one who is familiar with filling in the form. The latter, closely concerns the information that has to be monthly provided. On average, by combining these two elements, the time spent to fill in the questionnaire (just the burden) is estimated in terms of total number of minutes between a minimum and a maximum threshold.

The general revision policy is predetermined and reasonably stable from year to year and is adopted in order to incorporate updated information. It consists of:

Routine revisions

The industrial production indices of the most recent month are provisional and subject to a revision occurring with the dissemination of the following month and considering additional information received from enterprises (revised indices are disseminated in the press release).

A second type of revision occurs annually and concerns the time series of the indices. This revision aims at incorporating three types of information which become available after the publication of the first revision. Specifically, the elements considered in the revision process are the following:

1. The release of the most recent data to define the weighting structure. As previously highlighted, at the moment for the indices of the year t there is a misalignment between the year of the link period (t-1) and the data available for calculating the structure of their weights (t-3 for the SBS Frame and t-2 for ProdCom). When the indices for the year t+1 are released (where link period is t) also data t-2 for the SBS Frame and t-1 for the ProdCom become available, therefore data for year t are revised to update the weighting structure.

2. The updating and periodic revision of the short-term statistics (turnover index and hours worked) on which the used annual productivity coefficients are based, as mentioned above, for the products surveyed through the monthly flows of hours worked. These products that, as previously reported, weights for 13.6% belong to few sectors (in particular, machinery and mechanical equipment, electrical equipment, transport vehicles, repairs and systems installation). As a consequence, the effect of the coefficient revision may be significant for those specific sectors.

3. Responses received from the enterprises after the dissemination of the revised indices (which usually occurs around 60 days past the reference period); it involves a very limited number of responses, which accounts, on average, for approximately 1.7% of the sample (measured in production volume terms) but which may determine corrections on the disaggregated indices.

4. Subsequent corrections of information previously received from enterprises that have been reported as inaccurate by consistency checks. Usually these modifications have a minor effect on the aggregated indices, however they occasionally may cause significant revisions for specific sectors.

Coherence of the revision policy is respected for data released nationally and transmitted to Eurostat.

A paragraph called 'Revisioni' is attached to every press release in Italian and English version. It contains a methodological note on revisions (revision policy, source, periodicity, etc.) and the results of the revision analysis for the current period presented. Major revision dues to mistakes are made known to the public after the event.

Exceptionally, the annual revision is disseminated through the bulletin released on January 2023 and concerns monthly indices of 2022.

With regard to the unadjusted index, the annual growth rate was 0.4 for 2022, revised down by 0.1 percentage points (from +0.5% to +0.4%).

The Mean Absolute Revision (MAR), Mean Revision (MR) and RMAR (Relative Mean Absolute Revision) are compiled for totals.

Details on revision policy are also available at the web page https://www.istat.it/en/economic-trends/revisions.

Data are collected through a statistical survey. In addition data are obtained:
- for electric energy, from TERNA (Rete Elettrica Nazionale);
- for mining and quarrying, from Uffici nazionali minerari, idrocarburi e geotermia (Ministero delle attivit¿ produttive);
- for meat production, from the Istat survey on slaughtered animals for meat production.

The PRODCOM annual survey is used as frame.

Sample or census: The industrial production is a cut-off survey, with a non-probabilistic sample. For each product, enterprises are ranked according to the percentage of the value of production they represent for this product. Then the highest ranked units are drawn until 70% of the value of production is reached.

Criteria for stratification: not applicable

Threshold values and percentages: In total around 4,600 KAU are surveyed each month.

Frequency of updating the sample: As a consequence of the adoption of the concatenated method was updated the sample of companies used in the survey. The following table shows between the two bases for enterprises, respondent units and production.

the sample Comparison between base 2015 and link period 2021

(a) Respondent units to the survey

(b) Monthly flows provided for each single production (products by respondent units)

Monthly.

Self-administered data collection via electronic transmission, data are collected through a web portal called Portale Imprese https://imprese.istat.it/  Respondents need to login for insert data in the web questionnaire.

Accurate checks on time series are used for plausibility of data to validate. Integrity of files structure and used codes is ensured by extractions made from a database respecting integrity constraints.

Estimates for non-response: For estimating non responses concerning a given product, usually an automatic estimation criterion is applied on the basis of the average percentage variation m/(m-1) calculated on responses available for the same product.

Estimates for grossing-up to population levels: None.

Type of index: Fixed-base Laspeyres index.

Method of weighting and chaining: The elementary products are aggregated up to the Class level using as weights the output value (from PRODCOM survey); the aggregation from the Classes up to the total is based on value added at factor costs weights drawn from SBS data.

Data are disseminated in unadjusted form, adjusted for working days (total index, indices by MIGs, branches at 4-digit level of NACE Rev. 2 classification), and in a seasonally-adjusted form.

The raw indices are trading days adjusted and corrected for seasonal effects by TRAMO-SEATS procedure, version 942 for Linux. Working days adjustment series and seasonal adjustement series are estimated down to 4 digit level. Adjustment models are completely reviewed at the beginning of each year (with the release of February data) and parameters are re-estimated every month. Each month, seasonally adjusted series are revised from January 2001.

A Reg-Arima approach is used for working days and seasonal adjustment. Calendar adjustment is performed by using our country specific calendar which also take into account national holidays. No calendar adjustment is performed where no significant effect is found. Leap year and moving holidays like Easter are adjusted.

Outliers (additive outliers, temporary changes, level shift) are manually fixed at the beginning of the year when seasonal adjustment models are revised. The critical value for the outlier detection and the filter length are automatically chosen, whereas model/filter selection is manual. Both additive and multiplicative seasonal adjustment decomposition are used.

All series are directly adjusted. Whenever indirect adjustment is performed, a residual seasonality test is performed and checked.

None.