Natural hazards - Climatic hazards

Title

Reference

Author(s)

Kyrre Groven, Carlo Aall, Maya van den Berg, Annika Carlsson-Kanyama & Frans Coenen

Study type

Peer Review Journal    

Abstract

Integrating policy on climate change adaptation into civil protection is explored through studies of extreme weather management at the national level in Norway, Sweden and the Netherlands, and through local case studies of the three coastal cities of Bergen, Malmö and Rotterdam. The research issues addressed have been the extent to which, and in what form, climate change adaptation policy has been integrated into civil protection, how the observed policy integration can be explained and how such integration can be improved. Different degrees of policy integration may stem from perceived vulnerabilities and varying needs for renewed legitimacy within the civil protection system following the end of the Cold War. A set of socio-historic characteristics of the “environment” and “civil protection” policy domains illuminate conditions for an improved outcome of the policy integration process.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Social and health impacts
Natural hazards >> Climatic hazards

Keywords

climate change adaptation, civil protection, policy integration, local environmental policy

Entry Source:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

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http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/13549839.2012.665859
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kyrre.groven@vestforsk.no

Title

Summary for Policymakers: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (2011)

Reference

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA

Author(s)

Field, C. B., Barros, V., Stocker, T.F., Qin, D., Dokken, D., Ebi, K.L., Mastrandrea, M. D., Mach, K. J., Plattner, G.-K., Allen, S. K., Tignor, M. and P. M. Midgley (eds.)

Study type

Report 

Abstract

This Summary for Policymakers presents key findings from the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX). The SREX approaches the topic by assessing the scientific literature on issues that range from the relationship between climate change and extreme weather and climate events ("climate extremes") to the implications of these events for society and sustainable development. The assessment concerns the interaction of climatic, environmental, and human factors that can lead to impacts and disasters, options for managing the risks posed by impacts and disasters, and the important role that non-climatic factors play in determining impacts.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Social and health impacts
Natural hazards >> Climatic hazards

Keywords

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

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http://www.ipcc.ch/#
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IPCC-Sec@wmo.int

Title

Storm impacts along European coastlines. Part 2: lessons learned from the MICORE project

Reference

Environmental Science & Policy
Article in Press, Corrected Proof - Note to users

Author(s)

Paolo Ciavola, Oscar Ferreira, Piet Haerens, Mark Van Koningsveld and Clara Armaroli

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

This paper describes the MICORE approach to quantify for nine field sites the crucial storm related physical hazards (hydrodynamic as well as morphodynamic) in support of early warning efforts and emergency response.
As a first step historical storms that had a significant morphological impact on a representative number of sensitive European coastal stretches were reviewed and analysed in order to understand storm related morphological changes and how often they occur around Europe. Next, an on-line storm prediction system was set up to enable prediction of storm related hydro- and morphodynamic impacts. The system makes use of existing off-the-shelf models as well as a new open-source morphological model. To validate the models at least one year of fieldwork was done at nine pilot sites. The data was safeguarded and stored for future use in an open database that conforms to the OpenEarth protocols.
To translate quantitative model results to useful information for Civil Protection agencies the Frame of Reference approach (Van Koningsveld et al., 2005) and (Van Koningsveld et al., 2007) was used to derive Storm Impact Indicators (SIIs) for relevant decision makers. The acquired knowledge is expected to be directly transferred to the civil society trough partnerships with end-users at the end of the MICORE project.

Policy theme(s)

Marine ecosystems >> Coastal management
Natural hazards >> Climatic hazards

Keywords

Coastal storms, Coastal risk, Coastal erosion, Coastal flood, Morphological impacts, Early Warning Systems, Storm impact indicators

Entry Source:

Referred to in EC doc:

To be filled in later by editorial team

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http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S146290111100075X
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cvp@unife.it

Title

The Economics of Natural Disasters: Concepts and Methods

Reference

Hallegatte S., Przyluski, V. (2010b)
Policy Research Working Paper 5507
The World Bank, Washington D.C

Author(s)

Stephanie Hallegatte, Valentin Przyluski

Study type

Report

Abstract

Large-scale disasters regularly affect societies over the globe, causing large destruction and damage. After each of these events, media, insurance companies, and international institutions publish numerous assessments of the "cost of the disaster." However these assessments are based on different methodologies and approaches, and they often reach different results. Besides methodological differences, these discrepancies are due to the multi-dimensionality in disaster impacts and their large redistributive effects, which make it unclear what is included in the estimates. But most importantly, the purpose of these assessments is rarely specified, although different purposes correspond to different perimeters of analysis and different definitions of what a cost is. To clarify this situation, this paper proposes a definition of the cost of a disaster, and emphasizes the most important mechanisms that explain and determine this cost. It does so by first explaining why the direct economic cost, that is, the value of what has been damaged or destroyed by the disaster, is not a sufficient indicator of disaster seriousness and why estimating indirect losses is crucial to assess the consequences on welfare. The paper describes the main indirect consequences of a disaster and the following reconstruction phase, and discusses the economic mechanisms at play. It proposes a review of available methodologies to assess indirect economic consequences, illustrated with examples from the literature. Finally, it highlights the need for a better understanding of the economics of natural disasters and suggests a few promising areas for research on this topic.

Policy theme(s)

Environmental economics >> Economic impacts of environmental change
Natural hazards >> Climatic hazards
Natural hazards >> Geological hazards

Keywords:

Entry Source:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

View this study at:

http://econ.worldbank.org/external/default/main?pagePK=64165259&piPK=64165421&theSitePK=469372&menuPK=64166093
&entityID=000158349_20101221155640

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hallegatte@centre-cired.fr.

Title

Meteorological support for anticipatory water management

Reference

Weather Research, KNMI, Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, PO Box 201, 3730 AE De Bilt, The Netherlands

Author(s)

C.J. Kok, B.G.J. Wichers Schreur and D.H.P. Vogelezang

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Living with water is second nature to the inhabitants of the Netherlands. Managing water both as a resource and as a threat is a vital concern to the country. The responsibility for regional water management lies with the Dutch Regional Water Authorities. Their basic philosophy of a balance of safety and economic interests requires a sophisticated control and decision support
system, with high quality meteorological inputs. The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute KNMI in conjunction with the Dutch Association of Regional Water Authorities has developed a warning system for extreme precipitation in support of anticipatory water management. Radar observations, short range deterministic forecasts and medium range ensemble predictions of precipitation are combined with risk profiles of individual water control boards in an automatic system, that warns of possible conditions outside normal
control. This article describes the current operational system and presents examples of its application. A first evaluation of the possible value of this system, that essentially decouples meteorology and hydrology, is discussed, based on a first evaluation of the reliability of the precipitation forecasts. Finally, the article presents the current development of an extended system that uses combined probabilities of precipitation with wind, surge and river level forecasts to more accurately define risk conditions.

Policy theme(s)

Natural hazards >> Climatic hazards
Water >> Urban water management

Keywords

Ensemble forecasting, Anticipatory water management, Alert system

Entry Source:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

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http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169809510002073
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Kees.Kok@knmi.nl

Title

The Hot Summer of 2010: Redrawing the Temperature Record Map of Europe

Reference

Science Magazine Published Online 17 March 2011
DOI: 10.1126/science.1201224

Author(s)

David Barriopedro, Erich M. Fischer, Jürg Luterbacher, Ricardo M. Trigo, and Ricardo García-Herrera

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

The summer of 2010 was exceptionally warm in eastern Europe and large parts of Russia. We provide evidence that the anomalous 2010 warmth that caused adverse impacts exceeded the amplitude and spatial extent of the previous hottest summer of 2003. "Mega-heatwaves" such as the 2003 and 2010 events broke the 500-year-long seasonal temperature records over approximately 50% of Europe. According to regional multi-model experiments, the probability of a summer experiencing "mega-heatwaves" will increase by a factor of 5 to 10 within the next 40 years. However, the magnitude of the 2010 event was so extreme that despite this increase, the occurrence of an analogue over the same region remains fairly unlikely until the second half of the 21st century.

Policy theme(s)

Natural hazards>>Climatic hazards

Keywords

N/A

Entry Source:

N/A

Referred to in EC doc:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

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http://www.sciencemag.org/content/early/2011/03/16/science.1201224.abstract
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dbarriopedro@fc.ul.pt 

Title

Urban and rural mortality rates during heat waves in Berlin and Brandenburg, Germany

Reference

Environmental Pollution
Volume 159, Issues 8-9, August-September 2011, Pages 2044-2050

Author(s)

Katharina M.A. Gabriel and Wilfried R. Endlicher

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

In large cities such as Berlin, human mortality rates increase during intense heat waves. Analysis of relevant data from north-eastern Germany revealed that, during the heat waves that occurred between 1990 and 2006, health risks were higher for older people in both rural and urban areas, but that, during the two main heat waves within that 17-year period of time, the highest mortality rates were from the city of Berlin, and in particular from its most densely built-up districts. Adaptation measures will need to be developed, particularly within urban areas, in order to cope with the expected future intensification of heat waves due to global climate change.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Social and health impacts
Environment and health >> Health risks >> Climate change
Natural hazards >> Climatic hazards

Keywords

Urban climate, Heat waves, Thermal stress, Human mortality rates, Adaptation measures

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

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http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0269749111000388
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wilfried.endlicher@geo.hu-berlin.de

Title

A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes

Reference

Climatic Change
Volume 104, Number 1, 89-111, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-010-9977-4

Author(s)

Susan Hanson, Robert Nicholls, N. Ranger, S. Hallegatte, J. Corfee-Morlot, C. Herweijer and J. Chateau

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

This paper presents a first estimate of the exposure of the world's large port cities (population exceeding one million inhabitants in 2005) to coastal flooding due to sea-level rise and storm surge now and in the 2070s, taking into account scenarios of socio-economic and climate changes. The analysis suggests that about 40 million people (0.6% of the global population or roughly 1 in 10 of the total port city population in the cities considered) are currently exposed to a 1 in 100 year coastal flood event. For assets, the total value exposed in 2005 across all cities considered is estimated to be US$3,000 billion; corresponding to around 5% of global GDP in 2005 (both measured in international USD) with USA, Japan and the Netherlands being the countries with the highest values. By the 2070s, total population exposed could grow more than threefold due to the combined effects of sea-level rise, subsidence, population growth and urbanisation with asset exposure increasing to more than ten times current levels or approximately 9% of projected global GDP in this period. On the global-scale, population growth, socio-economic growth and urbanization are the most important drivers of the overall increase in exposure particularly in developing countries, as low-lying areas are urbanized. Climate change and subsidence can significantly exacerbate this increase in exposure. Exposure is concentrated in a few cities: collectively Asia dominates population exposure now and in the future and also dominates asset exposure by the 2070s. Importantly, even if the environmental or socio-economic changes were smaller than assumed here the underlying trends would remain. This research shows the high potential benefits from risk-reduction planning and policies at the city scale to address the issues raised by the possible growth in exposure.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Flooding and water management
Natural hazards >> Climatic hazards
Marine ecosystems >> Coastal management

Keywords

N/A

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

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http://www.springerlink.com/content/g02124153m05410k/
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s.e.hanson@soton.ac.uk

Title

Reference

Nature Geoscience Volume: 4, Pages: 17-21 Year published: (2011)
DOI: doi:10.1038/ngeo1032

Author(s)

Study type

Peer Review

Abstract

Climate change is expected to affect not only the means of climatic variables, but also their variabilities and extremes such as heat waves. In particular, modelling studies have postulated a possible impact of soil-moisture deficit and drought on hot extremes. Such effects could be responsible for impending changes in the occurrence of heat waves in Europe. Here we analyse observational indices based on measurements at 275 meteorological stations in central and south-eastern Europe, and on publicly available gridded observations. We find a relationship between soil-moisture deficit, as expressed by the standardized precipitation index, and summer hot extremes in south-eastern Europe. This relationship is stronger for the high end of the distribution of temperature extremes. We compare our results with simulations of current climate models and find that the models correctly represent the soil-moisture impacts on temperature extremes in south-eastern Europe, but overestimate them in central Europe. Given the memory associated with soil moisture storage, our findings may help with climate-change-adaptation measures, such as early-warning and prediction tools for extreme heat waves.

Policy theme(s)

Natural hazards >> Climatic hazards

Keywords

N/A

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

View this study at:

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v4/n1/abs/ngeo1032.html
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m.hirschi@alumni.ethz.ch

Title

Mapping the impacts of natural hazards and technological accidents in Europe

Reference

EEA Technical report No 13/2010

Author(s)

EEA

Study type

Report

Abstract

The report assesses the occurrence and impacts of disasters and the underlying hazards such as storms, extreme temperature events, forest fires, water scarcity and droughts, floods, snow avalanches, landslides, earthquakes, volcanoes and technological accidents in Europe for the period 1998-2009.

Policy theme(s)

Natural hazards >> Climatic hazards
Natural hazards >> Flooding
Natural hazards >> Geological hazards
Natural hazards >> Wildfires

Keywords

Natural hazards, Disasters

Entry Source:

N/A

Referred to in EC doc:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

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http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/mapping-the-impacts-of-natural/at_download/file
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N/A