Land use - Land use change

Title

Assessing long-term sustainable environmental impacts of agri-environment schemes on land use

Reference

European Journal of Forest Research
Doi: 10.1007/s10342-010-0469-x
EU funded

Author(s)

Jens Peter Vesterager, Kasper Teilmann and Henrik Vejre

Study type

Peer Review Journal    

Abstract

The lack of generic methods to assess the environmental consequences of agricultural practices and the lack of consensus on monitoring and evaluation of environmental, agricultural and socio-economic effects of agri-environment schemes (AES) in EU Member States call for better evaluation methods. The ‘Agri-environmental Footprint’ project proposed to deal with these problems by establishing a new evaluation method, the Agri-Environmental Footprint Index (AFI). The AFI is an index customised to local stakeholder preferences, using expert knowledge for assessment of impacts and sensitivity, and indicators of the environmental state at farm level. In a Danish test case, agricultural practices at twenty-five farms in two groundwater protection zones were assessed. Data was collected from databases, registers, maps and interviews with farmers. The index was calculated for 1996/7 and 2006/7 to track temporal development and effects of entering an agri-environmental scheme. The Danish case demonstrated that the index can be used to track changes in environmental impacts and that entering agri-environmental scheme had a positive impact on the index value. However, the index should be used with caution. It is important to consider the robustness of each indicator: to assess whether changes will occur over time; whether changes are linked to management practices or external factors; and whether data are available up to date. Indicators dependent upon uptake data from agri-environmental schemes should be used with great caution. Retrospective use of stakeholder preferences is subject to uncertainty because preferences may have changed over time.

Policy theme(s)

Agriculture >> Agricultural management >> Agri-environment schemes
Agriculture >> Agricultural management >> Land use change
Land use >> Land use change     

Keywords

Multi-criteria decision analysis; Sustainable impact assessment; Temporal comparison; Back casting; Stakeholder; Agri-environment schemes

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

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http://www.springerlink.com/content/118576057p667574/
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jpv@life.ku.dk

Title

The Impact of Regional Climate Change due to Greenhouse Forcing and Land-Use Changes on Malaria Risk in Tropical Africa

Reference

Author(s)

Volker Ermert, Andreas H. Fink, Andrew P. Morse, Heiko Paeth

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Objectives: In this study, potential changes in the malaria transmission are assessed via an integrated weather-disease model.
Methods: We simulated mosquito biting rates by the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). The input data for the LMM were bias-corrected temperature and precipitation data from the Regional Model (REMO) on a 0.5° latitude-longitude grid. A Plasmodium falciparum infection model expands the LMM simulations incorporating information on the infection rate in children. Malaria projections were carried out with this integrated weather-disease model for 2001-2050 according to two climate scenarios that include the effect of anthropogenic land use and land cover changes on climate.
Results: Model-based estimates for the present climate (1960-2000) are consistent with observed data for the spread of malaria in Africa. In the model domain, the regions of epidemic malaria occurrence are located in the Sahel as well in various highland territories. A decreased spread of malaria over most parts of tropical Africa is projected due to simulated increased surface temperatures and a significant reduction in annual rainfall. However, the likelihood of malaria epidemics is projected to increase in the southern part of the Sahel. In most of East Africa, malaria transmission intensity is expected to increase. Projections indicate that highland areas that were formerly unsuitable for malaria will become epidemic, while in the lower altitude regions of the East African highlands, epidemic risk will decrease.
Conclusions: We project that greenhouse gas and land use driven climate changes will significantly affect the spread of malaria in tropical Africa well before 2050. The geographic distribution of epidemic malaria areas might be strongly altered in the coming decades.

Policy theme(s)

Environment and health >> Health risks >> Climate change
Land use >> Land use change    

Keywords

Entry Source:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

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View this study at:

http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1103681
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vermert@meteo.uni-koeln.de 

Title

Is there a forest transition outside forests? Trajectories of farm trees and effects on ecosystem services in an agricultural landscape in Eastern Germany

Reference

Land Use Policy
Volume 29, Issue 1, January 2012, Pages 233-243

Author(s)

Tobias Plieninger, Christian Schleyer, Martin Mantel, Patrick Hostert

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Most industrial countries have experienced a transformation of land use: from decreasing to expanding forest areas, the so-called forest transition. Outside closed forests, European rural landscapes exhibit a diversity of tree-based agricultural systems, but the question of whether this forest transition has also affected ‘trees outside forests’ has rarely been studied. The aim of this study is to analyze the spatial-temporal dynamics of farm trees and woodlands in an agricultural landscape in Eastern Germany from 1964 to 2008, based on aerial photographs and digital orthophotos. Taking a landscape ecological perspective, we quantify farm tree dynamics, disentangle processes of gain and loss in the socialist and post-socialist periods of Eastern Germany, and assess differences in ecosystem services provided by farm trees. A substantial increase of overall tree cover by 24.8% was observed for the selected time period, but trajectories have been disparate across different farm tree classes. The increase in tree cover was stronger in steep valleys than on hills and plateaus, indicating a significant interdependence between topography and trajectories of change. Patch numbers of farm trees did not increase, which suggests that the expansion of tree cover is mostly due to a spatial expansion of previously existing tree patches. Overall net gains in tree cover were rather similar during the socialist and post-socialist eras. The general increase in tree cover was accompanied by increase in agriculture-related ecosystem service provision, but the increase in pollination and pest control services was much lower than that in water purification services. These findings present the first empirical evidence from an industrialized country that there is also an ongoing ‘forest transition’ outside closed forests. Potential, partially counteracting drivers of change during the socialist and post-socialist periods have mainly been related to farm policies and the environmental consciousness of land users and society as a whole.

Policy theme(s)

Biodiversity >> Ecosystem services
Forests >> Forest governance and management
Land use >> Land use change

Keywords

Agricultural intensification; Driving forces; GIS; Land-use transitions; Landscape ecology; Trees outside forests

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

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http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837711000652
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plieninger@bbaw.de

Title

Beyond biofuels: Assessing global land use for domestic consumption of biomass: A conceptual and empirical contribution to sustainable management of global resources

Reference

Land Use Policy
Volume 29, Issue 1, January 2012, Pages 224-232

Author(s)

Stefan Bringezu, Meghan O’Brien, Helmut Schütz

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Consumption of natural resources should not exceed sustainable levels. The increasing use of biofuels and to some extent biomaterials, on top of rising food and feed demands, is causing countries to use a growing amount of global land, which may lead to land use conflicts and the expansion of cropland and intensive cultivation at the expense of natural ecosystems. Selective product certification cannot control the land use change triggered by growing overall biomass consumption. We propose a comprehensive approach to account for the global land use of countries for their domestic consumption, and assess this level with regard to globally acceptable levels of resource use, based on the concept of safe operating space. It is shown that the European Union currently uses one-third more cropland than globally available on a per capita basis and that with constant consumption levels it would exceed its fair share of acceptable resource use in 2030. As the use of global forests to meet renewable energy targets is becoming a concern, an approach to account for sustainable levels of timber flows is also proposed, based on the use of net annual increment, exemplified with preliminary data for Switzerland. Altogether, our approach would integrate the concept of sustainable consumption into national resource management plans; offering a conceptual basis and concrete reference values for informed policy making and urging countries to monitor and adjust their levels of resource consumption in a comprehensive way, respectful of the limits of sustainable supply.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy >> Climate change mitigation >> Low carbon and renewable energy
Forests >> Forest services >> Forest industries/products
Land use >> Land use change

Keywords

Bioenergy; Biomaterials; Environmental space; Consumption; Agriculture; Forestry

Entry Source:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

View this study at:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837711000640
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stefan.bringezu@wupperinst.org

Title

A comparison of influences of cattle, goat, sheep and reindeer on vegetation changes in mountain cultural landscapes in Norway

Reference

Landscape and Urban Planning
Volume 102, Issue 3, 15 September 2011, Pages 177-187
EU funded

Author(s)

Sølvi Wehn, Bård Pedersen, Susanne Kristin Hanssen

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Earlier land use in European mountains included grazing by different kinds of livestock, while today it may be more homogenous, and the grazing may have either been intensified or been abandoned. Different domestic animal species graze in different areas of the landscape. Therefore, grazing stocks composed of different species have an unequal effect on the landscape. This study compares the influence of four domestic animal species (cattle, sheep, goats, reindeer) on landscape dynamics in Jotunheimen, a Norwegian mountain range. Interviews and maps showing grazing land of domestic animals were performed to collect information about land use in the summer farm surroundings. Grazing pressure maps (prior to 1960 and 1960-2002) using the land use information obtained, and vegetation maps (from the 1960s and 2002) using aerial photographs, were digitized. Vegetation was spatially linked with grazing pressure using GIS and multiple multinomial and linear regressions were used to investigate each species' effect on vegetation type change and displacement of the forest line, respectively. The results show that cattle grazing influenced transitions from grasslands, cattle together with goats affected transitions from heaths, and cattle, goats, and reindeer influenced displacement of the birch forest line. High grazing pressure from these three domestic animals suppressed forest and scrub establishment in open habitats. Only goats, however, caused transitions from scrub and birch forest to open vegetation types.

Policy theme(s)

Agriculture >> Agricultural management >> Livestock management
Land use >> Land use change

Keywords

Grazing pressure; Landscape change; Forest line; Multinomial regression; Linear regression

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

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http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169204611001708
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swe@dmmh.no

Title

International wood trade and forest change: A global analysis

Reference

Global Environmental Change
Volume 21, Issue 3, August 2011, Pages 947-956
EU Funded

Author(s)

Thomas Kastner, Karl-Heinz Erb, Sanderine Nonhebel

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Throughout history, humans have transformed natural forests into agricultural land, settlement areas and managed forests. Studies on the dynamics of forest change are one of the mainstays in land change science. The forest transition theory offers a powerful tool to analyze changes in human interference with forests. At the national level, a range of factors have been found to influence a country's forest change. The role of international wood product trade has, however, rarely been studied based on empirical data. We offer a global assessment of how this trade helps shape observed forest change, by relating forest stock change to net trade of wood products for the period 1997-2007 and by localizing the origin of wood consumed in a given nation. For many nations, traded wood products have a relevant impact on the course of ongoing forest transitions. We develop a general typology of how wood product trade can influence forest change and place various nations within this framework. We find that many wealthy nations with returning forests seem to accelerate this return by importing wood products. These imports appear to be provided by two main types of wood exporters: (a) by wealthy countries with low population densities and stable forests and (b) by relatively poor countries with declining forests, employing increasing population and welfare levels. We discuss these findings in the light of general theories on land use transitions and forest change and conclude by highlighting implications for national forest policies and global environmental governance, aiming at reducing negative impacts of wood products and enhancing the positive role they can play in replacing more fossil fuel intensive products.

Policy theme(s)

Forests >> Forest services >> Forest industries/products
Land use >> Land use change

Keywords

Forest transition; Trade; Wood products; Global assessment; Displacement of environmental impacts

Entry Source:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

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http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095937801100080X  
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t.kastner@rug.nl

Title

Environmental Impacts of Water Use in Global Crop Production: Hotspots and Trade-Offs with Land Use

Reference

Environ. Sci. Technol., 2011, 45 (13), pp 5761–5768
DOI: 10.1021/es1041755

Author(s)

Stephan Pfister, Peter Bayer, Annette Koehler, and Stefanie Hellweg

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Global crop production is causing pressure on water and land resources in many places. In addition to local resource management, the related environmental impacts of commodities traded along international supply chains need to be considered and managed accordingly. For this purpose, we calculate the specific water consumption and land use for the production of 160 crops and crop groups, covering most harvested mass on global cropland. We quantify indicators for land and water scarcity with high geospatial resolution. This facilitates spatially explicit crop-specific resource management and regionalized life cycle assessment of processed products. The vast cultivation of irrigated wheat, rice, cotton, maize, and sugar cane, which are major sources of food, bioenergy, and fiber, drives worldwide water scarcity. According to globally averaged production, substituting biofuel for crude oil would have a lower impact on water resources than substituting cotton for polyester. For some crops, water scarcity impacts are inversely related to land resource stress, illustrating that water consumption is often at odds with land use. On global average, maize performs better than rice and wheat in the combined land/water assessment. High spatial variability of water and land use related impacts underlines the importance of appropriate site selection for agricultural activities.

Policy theme(s)

Agriculture >> Agricultural management >> Crop management
Agriculture >> Agricultural management >> Land use change
Land use >> Land use change
Water >> Water consumption >> Water scarcity

Keywords

N/A

Entry Source:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

View this study at:

http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es1041755
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pfister@ifu.baug.ethz.ch

Title

Incorporating biodiversity conservation and recreational wildlife values into smart growth land use planning

Reference

Landscape and Urban Planning
Volume 100, Issues 1-2, 30 March 2011, Pages 136-143

Author(s)

Jared G. Underwood, Joyce Francis, Leah R. Gerber

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Smart growth land use planning seeks to balance the infrastructure needs of a growing human population and protection for the environment. Unfortunately, the data required to adequately incorporate biodiversity objectives into land use plans is often not available to planners. One problem is that there are few documented methods that detail how biodiversity data held by resource management agencies can be converted to a format useful for inclusion into smart growth plans. Here we demonstrate an approach that allows for state, provincial, or federal resource management agencies to disseminate data on (1) biodiversity conservation, and (2) conservation of wildlife of recreational value for incorporation into local land use plans. Our approach uses modeled threats and species richness data to identify high priority conservation areas and areas more suitable for future development. This approach provides a transparent mechanism to facilitate inclusion of biodiversity objectives into smart growth planning.

Policy theme(s)

Biodiversity >> Habitats >> Habitat management
Land use >> Land use change

Keywords

Biodiversity, Conservation planning, Land-use planning, Smart growth, Wildlife

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

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http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0169204610003075
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jared.underwood@asu.edu

Title

Forest Bioenergy or Forest Carbon?
Assessing Trade-Offs in Greenhouse Gas Mitigation with Wood-Based Fuels

Reference

Department of Civil Engineering, University of Toronto
Environ. Sci. Technol., 2011, 45 (2), pp 789-795

Author(s)

Jon McKechnie, Steve Colombo, Jiaxin Chen, Warren Mabee, and Heather L. MacLean

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

The potential of forest-based bioenergy to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions when displacing fossil-based energy must be balanced with forest carbon implications related to biomass harvest. We integrate life cycle assessment (LCA) and forest carbon analysis to assess total GHG emissions of forest bioenergy over time. Application of the method to case studies of wood pellet and ethanol production from forest biomass reveals a substantial reduction in forest carbon due to bioenergy production. For all cases, harvest-related forest carbon reductions and associated GHG emissions initially exceed avoided fossil fuel-related emissions, temporarily increasing overall emissions. In the long term, electricity generation from pellets reduces overall emissions relative to coal, although forest carbon losses delay net GHG mitigation by 16-38 years, depending on biomass source (harvest residues/standing trees). Ethanol produced from standing trees increases overall emissions throughout 100 years of continuous production: ethanol from residues achieves reductions after a 74 year delay. Forest carbon more significantly affects bioenergy emissions when biomass is sourced from standing trees compared to residues and when less GHG-intensive fuels are displaced. In all cases, forest carbon dynamics are significant. Although study results are not generalizable to all forests, we suggest the integrated LCA/forest carbon approach be undertaken for bioenergy studies.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy >> Climate change mitigation >> Renewable energy
Forests >> Forest services >> Forest industries/products
Land use >> Land use change

Keywords

N/A

Entry Source:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

View this study at:

http://pubs.acs.org/doi/abs/10.1021/es1024004
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hmaclean@ecf.utoronto.ca

Title

Methods and tools for integrated assessment of land use policies on sustainable development in developing countries

Reference

Land Use Policy
doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2010.11.009 

Author(s)

Pytrik Reidsma, Hannes König, Shuyi Feng, Irina Bezlepkina, et al

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

For stimulating sustainable development in developing countries, land use patterns and land use changes are considered critical, and therefore effective and efficient land use policies are needed. In this paper we present a methodological framework that has been developed in a joint European and developing countries project (LUPIS - Land Use Policies and Sustainable Development in Developing Countries), to assess the impact of land use policies on sustainable development in developing countries. An illustrative application is presented for a case study in China, where water pollution due to agriculture in Taihu Basin is a major problem.
We argue that an integrated assessment is required, considering multiple drivers and indicators that determine the objectives and constraints of the stakeholders involved. Therefore, the sustainability impact assessment (SIA) is based on the concept of Land Use Functions (LUFs), and impacts on these LUFs are discussed with stakeholders based on a multi-criteria analysis. LUFs comprise economic, environmental and social indicators relevant for stakeholders at multiple scales. Instead of focusing only on the indicators that determine the problem (e.g., nutrient leaching in the Chinese case study), we take a broader perspective (considering also social, economic and institutional objectives and constraints), such that feasible policy options can be recommended. Stakeholders have a large role in discussing the selection of indicators and policies (pre-modelling), evaluating the impacts on indicators (modelling), and the weighing of indicators and LUFs (post-modelling). For the assessment of impacts on indicators (modelling), quantitative and qualitative approaches are combined. We present and discuss an impact assessment of policy options in Taihu Basin, for the current situation and towards 2015. The methodological framework as presented here proved to be useful to guide a sustainability impact assessment in China and six other case study regions.

Policy theme(s)

Land use >> Land use change
Sustainable development and policy assessment >> Sustainable economic development >> Sustainable development in developing countries

Keywords

Policy impact assessment, Multi-scale, Science-policy interaction, Agro-ecological relationships, Sustainable agriculture, Nutrient management

Entry Source:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

View this study at:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264837710001201
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pytrik.reidsma@wur.nl

Title

Effects of bioenergy policies and targets on European wetland restoration options

Reference

Environmental Science & Policy Volume 13, Issue 8, December 2010,
Pages 721-732

Author(s)

Christine Schleupner and Uwe A. Schneider

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

The EU is committed to combat climate change and to increase security of its energy supply. Bioenergy from forestry and agriculture plays a key role for both. Concurrently, the EU agreed to halt the loss of biodiversity within its member states. To fulfil the biodiversity target more nature conservation and restoration sites need to be designated. There are arising concerns that an increased cultivation of bioenergy crops will decrease the land available for nature reserves and for 'traditional' agriculture and forestry. To assess the role of bioenergy in light of possible negative impacts on ecosystems, the European Forest and Agricultural Sector Optimization Model (EUFASOM) assesses simultaneously economic and environmental aspects of land use. This study contributes to the assessment by analyzing the effect of bioenergy production on European wetland allocations by incorporating the spatial wetland distribution model SWEDI into EUFASOM. Results show that bioenergy targets increase land competition and thus marginal costs of wetland preservation but also of food prices. The designation of national wetland conservation targets, on the other hand, stimulates land use intensification in countries without these targets and here only a transfer of environmental stresses takes place. The model is able to illustrate regional differences of results.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy >> Climate change mitigation >> Renewable energy
Agriculture >> Agricultural management >> Land use change
Land use >> Land use change

Keywords

Biomass, Conservation planning, Land use, Leakage

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

View this study at:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901110001000
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Contact the study author at:

christine.schleupner@zmaw.de