Environment and health - Climate change

Title

Mapping Climate Change Vulnerabilities to Infectious Diseases in Europe

Reference

Author(s)

Jan C. Semenza, Jonathan E. Suk, Virginia Estevez, Kristie L. Ebi, Elisabet Lindgren

Study type

Peer Review Journal   

Abstract

Background: The incidence, outbreak frequency, and distribution of many infectious diseases are generally expected to change as a consequence of climate change, yet there is limited regional information available to guide decision making.
Objective: We surveyed government officials designated as Competent Bodies for Scientific Advice concerning infectious diseases to examine the degree to which they are concerned about potential effects of climate change on infectious diseases, as well as their perceptions of institutional capacities in their respective countries.
Methods: In 2007 and 2009/2010, national infectious disease experts from 30 European Economic Area countries were surveyed about recent and projected infectious disease patterns in relation to climate change in their countries and the national capacity to cope with them.
Results: A large majority of respondents agreed that climate change would affect vector-borne (86% of country representatives), food-borne (70%), water-borne (68%), and rodent-borne (68%) diseases in their countries. In addition, most indicated that institutional improvements are needed for ongoing surveillance programs (83%), collaboration with the veterinary sector (69%), management of animal disease outbreaks (66%), national monitoring and control of climate-sensitive infectious diseases (64%), health services during an infectious disease outbreak (61%), and diagnostic support during an epidemic (54%).
Conclusions: Expert responses were generally consistent with the peer-reviewed literature regarding the relationship between climate change and vector- and water-borne diseases, but were less so for food-borne diseases. Shortcomings in institutional capacity to manage climate change vulnerability, identified in this assessment, should be addressed in impact, vulnerability, and adaptation assessments.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Social and health impacts
Environment and health >> Health risks >> Climate change

Keywords

adaptation, climate change, infectious diseases, surveillance, vulnerability

Entry Source:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

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http://ehp03.niehs.nih.gov/article/fetchArticle.action?articleURI=info%3Adoi%2F10.1289%2Fehp.1103805
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jan.semenza@ecdc.europa.eu

Title

Predicting the effect of climate change on African trypanosomiasis: integrating epidemiology with parasite and vector biology

Reference

Journal of the Royal Society Interface doi: 10.1098/​rsif.2011.0654

Author(s)

Sean Moore, Sourya Shrestha, Kyle W. Tomlinson and Holly Vuong

Study type

Peer Review Journal   

Abstract

Climate warming over the next century is expected to have a large impact on the interactions between pathogens and their animal and human hosts. Vector-borne diseases are particularly sensitive to warming because temperature changes can alter vector development rates, shift their geographical distribution and alter transmission dynamics. For this reason, African trypanosomiasis (sleeping sickness), a vector-borne disease of humans and animals, was recently identified as one of the 12 infectious diseases likely to spread owing to climate change. We combine a variety of direct effects of temperature on vector ecology, vector biology and vector–parasite interactions via a disease transmission model and extrapolate the potential compounding effects of projected warming on the epidemiology of African trypanosomiasis. The model predicts that epidemics can occur when mean temperatures are between 20.7°C and 26.1°C. Our model does not predict a large-range expansion, but rather a large shift of up to 60 per cent in the geographical extent of the range. The model also predicts that 46–77 million additional people may be at risk of exposure by 2090. Future research could expand our analysis to include other environmental factors that influence tsetse populations and disease transmission such as humidity, as well as changes to human, livestock and wildlife distributions. The modelling approach presented here provides a framework for using the climate-sensitive aspects of vector and pathogen biology to predict changes in disease prevalence and risk owing to climate change.

Policy theme(s)

Environment and health >> Biodiversity and human health
Environment and health >> Health risks >> Climate change
Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Biodiversity impacts
Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Social and health impacts

Keywords

sleeping sickness; trypanosomiasis; disease ecology; vector; climate; global warming

Entry Source:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

View this study at:

http://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/early/2011/11/01/rsif.2011.0654
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smoore@ucar.edu

Title

The Impact of Regional Climate Change due to Greenhouse Forcing and Land-Use Changes on Malaria Risk in Tropical Africa

Reference

Author(s)

Volker Ermert, Andreas H. Fink, Andrew P. Morse, Heiko Paeth

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Objectives: In this study, potential changes in the malaria transmission are assessed via an integrated weather-disease model.
Methods: We simulated mosquito biting rates by the Liverpool Malaria Model (LMM). The input data for the LMM were bias-corrected temperature and precipitation data from the Regional Model (REMO) on a 0.5° latitude-longitude grid. A Plasmodium falciparum infection model expands the LMM simulations incorporating information on the infection rate in children. Malaria projections were carried out with this integrated weather-disease model for 2001-2050 according to two climate scenarios that include the effect of anthropogenic land use and land cover changes on climate.
Results: Model-based estimates for the present climate (1960-2000) are consistent with observed data for the spread of malaria in Africa. In the model domain, the regions of epidemic malaria occurrence are located in the Sahel as well in various highland territories. A decreased spread of malaria over most parts of tropical Africa is projected due to simulated increased surface temperatures and a significant reduction in annual rainfall. However, the likelihood of malaria epidemics is projected to increase in the southern part of the Sahel. In most of East Africa, malaria transmission intensity is expected to increase. Projections indicate that highland areas that were formerly unsuitable for malaria will become epidemic, while in the lower altitude regions of the East African highlands, epidemic risk will decrease.
Conclusions: We project that greenhouse gas and land use driven climate changes will significantly affect the spread of malaria in tropical Africa well before 2050. The geographic distribution of epidemic malaria areas might be strongly altered in the coming decades.

Policy theme(s)

Environment and health >> Health risks >> Climate change
Land use >> Land use change    

Keywords

Entry Source:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1103681
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vermert@meteo.uni-koeln.de 

Title

Estimating the Global Public Health Implications of Electricity and Coal Consumption

Reference

Environ Health Perspect 119:821-826
doi:10.1289/ehp.1002241.

Author(s)

Julia M. Gohlke, Reuben Thomas, Alistair Woodward, Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, Annette Prüss-üstün, Simon Hales, Christopher J. Portier

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Background: The growing health risks associated with greenhouse gas emissions highlight the need for new energy policies that emphasize efficiency and low-carbon energy intensity.
Objectives: We assessed the relationships among electricity use, coal consumption, and health outcomes.
Methods: Using time-series data sets from 41 countries with varying development trajectories between 1965 and 2005, we developed an autoregressive model of life expectancy (LE) and infant mortality (IM) based on electricity consumption, coal consumption, and previous year's LE or IM. Prediction of health impacts from the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated air pollution emissions health impact model for coal-fired power plants was compared with the time-series model results.
Results: The time-series model predicted that increased electricity consumption was associated with reduced IM for countries that started with relatively high IM (> 100/1,000 live births) and low LE (< 57 years) in 1965, whereas LE was not significantly associated with electricity consumption regardless of IM and LE in 1965. Increasing coal consumption was associated with increased IM and reduced LE after accounting for electricity consumption. These results are consistent with results based on the GAINS model and previously published estimates of disease burdens attributable to energy-related environmental factors, including indoor and outdoor air pollution and water and sanitation.
Conclusions: Increased electricity consumption in countries with IM < 100/1,000 live births does not lead to greater health benefits, whereas coal consumption has significant detrimental health impacts.

Policy theme(s)

Air pollution >> Impact of emissions >> Health impacts
Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Social and health impacts
Environment and health >> Health risks >> Air pollution
Environment and health >> Health risks >> Climate change

Keywords

air pollution, climate change, coal, electricity, energy policy, global health, health impact modeling, infant mortality, life expectancy, time series.

Entry Source:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert N/A

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

View this study at:

http://ehp03.niehs.nih.gov/article/fetchArticle.action?articleURI=info%3Adoi%2F10.1289%2Fehp.1002241
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Contact the study author at:

jgohlke@uab.edu

Title

Urban and rural mortality rates during heat waves in Berlin and Brandenburg, Germany

Reference

Environmental Pollution
Volume 159, Issues 8-9, August-September 2011, Pages 2044-2050

Author(s)

Katharina M.A. Gabriel and Wilfried R. Endlicher

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

In large cities such as Berlin, human mortality rates increase during intense heat waves. Analysis of relevant data from north-eastern Germany revealed that, during the heat waves that occurred between 1990 and 2006, health risks were higher for older people in both rural and urban areas, but that, during the two main heat waves within that 17-year period of time, the highest mortality rates were from the city of Berlin, and in particular from its most densely built-up districts. Adaptation measures will need to be developed, particularly within urban areas, in order to cope with the expected future intensification of heat waves due to global climate change.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Social and health impacts
Environment and health >> Health risks >> Climate change
Natural hazards >> Climatic hazards

Keywords

Urban climate, Heat waves, Thermal stress, Human mortality rates, Adaptation measures

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

View this study at:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0269749111000388
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wilfried.endlicher@geo.hu-berlin.de

Title

Potential malaria outbreak in Germany due to climate warming: risk modelling based on temperature measurements and regional climate models

Reference

Environmental Science and Pollution Research
DOI: 10.1007/s11356-010-0388-x

Author(s)

Marcel Holy, Gunther Schmidt and Winfried Schröder

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Purpose  
Climate warming can change the geographic distribution and intensity of the transmission of vector-borne diseases such as malaria. The transmitted parasites usually benefit from increased temperatures as both their reproduction and development are accelerated. Lower Saxony (northwestern Germany) has been a malaria region until the 1950s, and the vector species are still present throughout Germany. This gave reason to investigate whether a new autochthonous transmission could take place if the malaria pathogen was introduced again in Germany.
Materials and methods  
The spatial distribution of potential temperature-driven malaria transmissions was investigated using the basic reproduction rate (R 0) to model and geostatistically map areas at risk of an outbreak of tertian malaria based on measured (1961-1990, 1991-2007) and predicted (1991-2020, 2021-2050, 2051-2080) monthly mean air temperature data.
Results  
From the computations, maps were derived showing that during the period 1961-1990, the seasonal transmission gate ranges from 0 to 4 months and then expands up to 5 months in the period 1991–2007. For the projection of future trends, the regional climate models REMO and WettReg were used each with two different scenarios (A1B and B1). Both modelling approaches resulted in prolonged seasonal transmission gates in the future, enabling malaria transmissions up to 6 months in the climate reference period 2051-2080 (REMO, scenario A1B).
Discussion  
The presented risk prognosis is based on the R 0 formula for the estimation of the reproduction of the malaria pathogen Plasmodium vivax. The presented model focuses on mean air temperatures; thus, other driving factors like the distribution of water bodies (breeding habitats) or population density are not integrated. Nevertheless, the modelling presented in this study can help identify areas at risk and initiate prevention. The described findings may also help in the investigation and assessment of related diseases caused by temperature-dependent vectors and pathogens, including those being dangerous for livestock as well, e.g. insect-borne bluetongue disease transmitted by culicoids.

Policy theme(s)

Environment and health >> Health risks >> Climate change

Keywords

Anopheles atroparvus, Basic reproduction rate, Climate change, Malaria, Modelling, Plasmodium, Vivax

Entry Source:

N/A

Referred to in EC doc:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

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http://www.springerlink.com/content/h5321393501tn56t/
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Contact the study author at:

gschmidt@iuw.uni-vechta.de