Climate change and energy - Flooding and water management

Title

Urban adaptation to climate change in Europe. Challenges and opportunities for cities together with supportive national and European policies.

Reference

EEA Report No 2/2012

Author(s)

Birgit Georgi et al. (2012)

Study type

Report

Abstract

Climate change is happening, projected to continue and poses serious challenges for cities. Extreme weather events resulting in hazards such as heatwaves, floods and droughts are expected to happen more frequently in many parts of Europe.
The impacts are stark: flooding can damage or wash away homes, businesses and infrastructure. Jobs and vital services will be lost. Heatwaves can compromise public health, reduce productivity and constrain the functionality of infrastructure. Water scarcity will place cities in competition for water with a wide variety of other sectors, including agriculture, energy generation and tourism.
Cities drive Europe's economy and generate substantial wealth. If important economic hubs such as London, Paris or Rotterdam experience climate related problems Europe's economy and quality of life will be under threat.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Flooding and water management
Sustainable development and policy assessment >> Sustainable economic development >> Sustainable urban development
Urban environment >> Urban planning >> Sustainable cities

Keywords

Entry Source:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

View this study at:

http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/urban-adaptation-to-climate-change

This study is free to view

Contact the study author at:

eea.europa.eu/enquiries

Title

Model estimates of sea-level change due to anthropogenic impacts on terrestrial water storage

Reference

Nature Geoscience 5,389–392(2012) doi:10.1038/ngeo1476
20 May 2012

Author(s)

Yadu N. Pokhrel, Naota Hanasaki, Pat J-F. Yeh, Tomohito J. Yamada, Shinjiro Kanae & Taikan Oki

Study type

Peer Review Journal    

Abstract

Global sea level has been rising over the past half century, according to tide-gauge data Thermal expansion of oceans, melting of glaciers and loss of the ice masses in Greenland and Antarctica are commonly considered as the largest contributors, but these contributions do not entirely explain the observed sea-level rise. Changes in terrestrial water storage are also likely to affect sea level, but comprehensive and reliable estimates of this contribution, particularly through human water use, are scarce. Here, we estimate sea-level change in response to human impacts on terrestrial water storage by using an integrated model that simulates global terrestrial water stocks and flows (exclusive to Greenland and Antarctica) and especially accounts for human activities such as reservoir operation and irrigation. We find that, together, unsustainable groundwater use, artificial reservoir water impoundment, climate-driven changes in terrestrial water storage and the loss of water from closed basins have contributed a sea-level rise of about 0.77 mm yr−1 between 1961 and 2003, about 42% of the observed sea-level rise. We note that, of these components, the unsustainable use of groundwater represents the largest contribution.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Flooding and water management
Water >> Water consumption >> Water scarcity

Keywords

Atmospheric science, Climate science Hydrology, hydrogeology and limnology

Entry Source:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

View this study at:

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v5/n6/abs/ngeo1476.html?lang=en?WT.ec_id=NGEO-201206

There is a fee to view this study in full    

Contact the study author at:

pokhrel@rainbow.iis.u-tokyo.ac.jp

Title

Reference

Nature
481, 66–70

Author(s)

James Morison, Ron Kwok, Cecilia Peralta-Ferriz, Matt Alkire, Ignatius Rigor, Roger Andersen Mike Steele

Study type

Peer Review Journal    

Abstract

Freshening in the Canada basin of the Arctic Ocean began in the 1990s and continued  to at least the end of 2008. By then, the Arctic Ocean might have gained four times as much fresh water as comprised the Great Salinity Anomaly of the 1970s, raising the spectre of slowing global ocean circulation. Freshening has been attributed to increased sea ice melting and contributions from runoff, but a leading explanation has been a strengthening of the Beaufort High—a characteristic peak in sea level atmospheric pressure—which tends to accelerate an anticyclonic (clockwise) wind pattern causing convergence of fresh surface water. Limited observations have made this explanation difficult to verify, and observations of increasing freshwater content under a weakened Beaufort High suggest that other factors must be affecting freshwater content. Here we use observations to show that during a time of record reductions in ice extent from 2005 to 2008, the dominant freshwater content changes were an increase in the Canada basin balanced by a decrease in the Eurasian basin. Observations are drawn from satellite data (sea surface height and ocean-bottom pressure) and in situ data. The freshwater changes were due to a cyclonic (anticlockwise) shift in the ocean pathway of Eurasian runoff forced by strengthening of the west-to-east Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation characterized by an increased Arctic Oscillation index. Our results confirm that runoff is an important influence on the Arctic Ocean and establish that the spatial and temporal manifestations of the runoff pathways are modulated by the Arctic Oscillation, rather than the strength of the wind-driven Beaufort Gyre circulation.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Flooding and water management

Keywords

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

View this study at:

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v481/n7379/full/nature10705.html
There is a fee to view this study in full    

Contact the study author at:

morison@apl.washington.edu

Title

Flash flood forecasting, warning and risk management: the HYDRATE project

Reference

Environmental Science & Policy
Volume 14, Issue 7, November 2011, Pages 834-844

Author(s)

M. Bora E.N. Anagnostou, G. Blöschl, J.-D. Creutin

Study type

Peer Review Journal 

Abstract

The management of flash flood hazards and risks is a critical component of public safety and quality of life. Flash-floods develop at space and time scales that conventional observation systems are not able to monitor for rainfall and river discharge. Consequently, the atmospheric and hydrological generating mechanisms of flash-floods are poorly understood, leading to highly uncertain forecasts of these events. The objective of the HYDRATE project has been to improve the scientific basis of flash flood forecasting by advancing and harmonising a European-wide innovative flash flood observation strategy and developing a coherent set of technologies and tools for effective early warning systems. To this end, the project included actions on the organization of the existing flash flood data patrimony across Europe. The final aim of HYDRATE was to enhance the capability of flash flood forecasting in ungauged basins by exploiting the extended availability of flash flood data and the improved process understanding. This paper provides a review of the work conducted in HYDRATE with a special emphasis on how this body of research can contribute to guide the policy-life cycle concerning flash flood risk management.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Flooding and water management
Natural hazards >> Flooding

Risk assessment >> Risk assessment methodologies     
Water >> Flooding

Keywords

Flash flood; Flood risk; Flood forecasting; Climate change

Entry Source:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

View this study at:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1462901111000943
There is a fee to view this study in full

Contact the study author at:

marco.borga@unipd.it

Title

Comparing the role of absolute sea-level rise and vertical tectonic motions in coastal flooding, Torres Islands (Vanuatu)

Reference

PNAS August 9, 2011 vol. 108 no. 32 13019-13022

Author(s)

Valérie Ballu , Marie-Noëlle Bouin, Patricia Siméoni, Wayne C. Crawford , Stephane Calmant, Jean-Michel Boré, Tony Kanas, and Bernard Pelletier

Study type

Peer Review Journal  

Abstract

Since the late 1990s, rising sea levels around the Torres Islands (north Vanuatu, southwest Pacific) have caused strong local and international concern. In 2002-2004, a village was displaced due to increasing sea incursions, and in 2005 a United Nations Environment Programme press release referred to the displaced village as perhaps the world’s first climate change “refugees.” We show here that vertical motions of the Torres Islands themselves dominate the apparent sea-level rise observed on the islands. From 1997 to 2009, the absolute sea level rose by 150 + /-20 mm. But GPS data reveal that the islands subsided by 117 + /-30 mm over the same time period, almost doubling the apparent gradual sea-level rise. Moreover, large earthquakes that occurred just before and after this period caused several hundreds of mm of sudden vertical motion, generating larger apparent sea-level changes than those observed during the entire intervening period. Our results show that vertical ground motions must be accounted for when evaluating sea-level change hazards in active tectonic regions. These data are needed to help communities and governments understand environmental changes and make the best decisions for their future.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Flooding and water management
Natural hazards >> Geological hazards

Keywords

Geodesy, seismic cycle, island arcs,vertical motion

Entry Source:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

View this study at:

http://www.pnas.org/content/108/32/13019.abstract
There is a fee to view this study in full

Contact the study author at:

ballu@ipgp.fr

Title

Warm winds from the Pacific caused extensive Arctic sea-ice melt in summer 2007

Reference

Climate Dynamics
Observational, Theoretical and Computational Research on the Climate System

Author(s)

Rune G. Graversen, Thorsten Mauritsen, Sybren Drijfhout, Michael Tjernström and Sebastian Mårtensson

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

During summer 2007 the Arctic sea-ice shrank to the lowest extent ever observed. The role of the atmospheric energy transport in this extreme melt event is explored using the state-of-the-art ERA-Interim reanalysis data. We find that in summer 2007 there was an anomalous atmospheric flow of warm and humid air into the region that suffered severe melt. This anomaly was larger than during any other year in the data (1989-2008). Convergence of the atmospheric energy transport over this area led to positive anomalies of the downward longwave radiation and turbulent fluxes. In the region that experienced unusual ice melt, the net anomaly of the surface fluxes provided enough extra energy to melt roughly one meter of ice during the melting season. When the ocean successively became ice-free, the surface-albedo decreased causing additional absorption of shortwave radiation, despite the fact that the downwelling solar radiation was smaller than average. We argue that the positive anomalies of net downward longwave radiation and turbulent fluxes played a key role in initiating the 2007 extreme ice melt, whereas the shortwave-radiation changes acted as an amplifying feedback mechanism in response to the melt.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Flooding and water management

Keywords

Arctic, Sea ice, Energy transport, Greenhouse effect, Surface-albedo feedback

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

View this study at:

http://www.springerlink.com/content/2k05368u222kp330/
There is a fee to view this study in full

Contact the study author at:

graversen@knmi.ml

Title

Reference

Estuaries and Coasts
Volume 34, Number 3, 483-493, DOI: 10.1007/s12237-011-9390-x EU funded

Author(s)

John Day, Carles Ibánez, Francesco Scarton, Didier Pont, Philippe Hensel, Jason Day and Robert Lane

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Abstract We report on a decadal trend of accretionary dynamics in the wetlands of several northwesternMediterranean deltas and a lagoon system, all of them with high rates of wetland loss. Wetland vertical accretion and surface elevation change were measured at 55 riverine, marine, and impounded sites in four coastal systems: the Ebro delta, Spain; the Rhône delta, France; and the Po delta and Venice Lagoon, Italy. Vertical accretion and elevation change ranged between 0 and 25 mm year–1 and were strongly correlated. The highest rates of elevation gain occurred at riverine sites where vertical accretion was highest. We conclude that areas with high sediment input, mainly riverine, are the only ones likely to survive accelerated sea-level rise, especially if recent higher estimates of 1 m or more in the twenty-first century prove to be accurate. This is the first study where the importance of river input on wetland survival has been demonstrated at a decadal time scale over a broad geographical area.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy>>Climate change adaptation>>Flooding and water management
Marine ecosystems>>Coastal management
Water>>Flooding

Keywords

Deltas, Sediment input, Flood pulse, Sea-level rise, Mediterranean wetlands

Entry Source:

N/A

Referred to in EC doc:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

View this study at:

http://www.springerlink.com/content/j115kqu5rm103355/
There is a fee to view this study in full

Contact the study author at:

johnday@lsu.edu

Title

Reference

Nature Volume: 470, Pages:382-385

Author(s)

Pardeep Pall, Tolu Aina, Dáithí A. Stone, Peter A. Stott, Toru Nozawa, Arno G. J. Hilberts, Dag Lohmann & Myles R. Allen

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Interest in attributing the risk of damaging weather-related events to anthropogenic climate change is increasing. Yet climate models used to study the attribution problem typically do not resolve the weather systems associated with damaging events such as the UK floods of October and November 2000. Occurring during the wettest autumn in England and Wales since records began in 1766, these floods damaged nearly 10,000 properties across that region, disrupted services severely, and caused insured losses estimated at £1.3 billion. Although the flooding was deemed a 'wake-up call' to the impacts of climate change at the time, such claims are typically supported only by general thermodynamic arguments that suggest increased extreme precipitation under global warming, but fail to account fully for the complex hydrometeorology associated with flooding. Here we present a multi-step, physically based 'probabilistic event attribution' framework showing that it is very likely that global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions substantially increased the risk of flood occurrence in England and Wales in autumn 2000. Using publicly volunteered distributed computing, we generate several thousand seasonal-forecast-resolution climate model simulations of autumn 2000 weather, both under realistic conditions, and under conditions as they might have been had these greenhouse gas emissions and the resulting large-scale warming never occurred. Results are fed into a precipitation-runoff model that is used to simulate severe daily river runoff events in England and Wales (proxy indicators of flood events). The precise magnitude of the anthropogenic contribution remains uncertain, but in nine out of ten cases our model results indicate that twentieth-century anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions increased the risk of floods occurring in England and Wales in autumn 2000 by more than 20%, and in two out of three cases by more than 90%.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Flooding and water management
Water >> Flooding

Keywords

N/A

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

View this study at:

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v470/n7334/full/nature09762.html
There is a fee to view this study in full

Contact the study author at:

p.pall@atm.ox.ac.uk

Title

Analyses of seasonal and annual maximum daily discharge records for central Europe

Reference

Journal of Hydrology
Volume 399, Issues 3-4, 18 March 2011, Pages 299-312

Author(s)

Gabriele Villarini, James A. Smith, Francesco Serinaldi and Alexandros A. Ntelekos

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Annual and seasonal maximum daily discharge time series for 55 stations in central Europe (Germany,Switzerland, Czech Republic, and Slovakia) are used to examine flood frequency from a regional perspective. In this study we examine temporal nonstationarities in the flood peak records, and characterize
upper tail and scaling properties of the flood peak distributions. There is a marked seasonality in the flood peak record, with a large fraction of annual maximum flood peaks occurring during the winter in the western part of the study domain, and during the summer in the southern portion of this region. The presence
of abrupt and slowly varying changes in the flood time series is examined by means of non-parametric tests. Change-points in the mean and variance of the flood peak distributions are examined using the Pettitt test, while the presence of monotonic patterns is examined by means of Spearman and Mann-Kendall
tests. Abrupt changes, rather than monotonic trends are responsible for violations of the stationarity assumption. These step changes can often be associated with anthropogenic effects, such as construction of dams and reservoirs and river training. Given the profound changes that these catchments have undergone,
it is difficult to detect a possible climate change signal in the flood peak record.
The estimates of the location, scale, and shape parameters of the Generalized Extreme Value distribution are used to examine the upper tail and scaling properties of the flood peak distributions. The location and scale parameters exhibit a power law behaviour when plotted as a function of drainage area, while
the shape parameter decreases log-linearly for increasing catchment area. The findings of this study suggest that these records exhibit a heavy tail behaviour.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy>>Climate change adaptation>>Flooding and water management
Water>> Flooding

Keywords

Flood, Stationarity, Climate change, Extreme value statistics, Central Europe

Entry Source:

N/A

Referred to in EC doc:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

View this study at:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022169411000321
There is a fee to view this study in full

Contact the study author at:

gvillari@princeton.edu

Title

Regionally differentiated contribution of mountain glaciers and ice caps to future sea-level rise

Reference

Journal name: Nature Geoscience
Volume:4, Pages: 91–94 (2011)
DOI: doi:10.1038/ngeo1052

Author(s)

Valentina Radić & Regine Hock

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

The contribution to sea-level rise from mountain glaciers and ice caps has grown over the past decades. They are expected to remain an important component of eustatic sea-level rise for at least another century, despite indications of accelerated wastage of the ice sheets. However, it is difficult to project the future contribution of these small-scale glaciers to sea-level rise on a global scale. Here, we project their volume changes due to melt in response to transient, spatially differentiated twenty-first century projections of temperature and precipitation from ten global climate models. We conduct the simulations directly on the more than 120,000 glaciers now available in the World Glacier Inventory, and upscale the changes to 19 regions that contain all mountain glaciers and ice caps in the world (excluding the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets). According to our multi-model mean, sea-level rise from glacier wastage by 2100 will amount to 0.124±0.037m, with the largest contribution from glaciers in Arctic Canada, Alaska and Antarctica. Total glacier volume will be reduced by 21±6%, but some regions are projected to lose up to 75% of their present ice volume. Ice losses on such a scale may have substantial impacts on regional hydrology and water availability.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Flooding and water management
Marine ecosystems >> Coastal management

Keywords

N/A

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

View this study at:

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v4/n2/abs/ngeo1052.html
There is a fee to view this study in full

Contact the study author at:

vradic@eos.ubc.ca

Title

A global ranking of port cities with high exposure to climate extremes

Reference

Climatic Change
Volume 104, Number 1, 89-111, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-010-9977-4

Author(s)

Susan Hanson, Robert Nicholls, N. Ranger, S. Hallegatte, J. Corfee-Morlot, C. Herweijer and J. Chateau

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

This paper presents a first estimate of the exposure of the world's large port cities (population exceeding one million inhabitants in 2005) to coastal flooding due to sea-level rise and storm surge now and in the 2070s, taking into account scenarios of socio-economic and climate changes. The analysis suggests that about 40 million people (0.6% of the global population or roughly 1 in 10 of the total port city population in the cities considered) are currently exposed to a 1 in 100 year coastal flood event. For assets, the total value exposed in 2005 across all cities considered is estimated to be US$3,000 billion; corresponding to around 5% of global GDP in 2005 (both measured in international USD) with USA, Japan and the Netherlands being the countries with the highest values. By the 2070s, total population exposed could grow more than threefold due to the combined effects of sea-level rise, subsidence, population growth and urbanisation with asset exposure increasing to more than ten times current levels or approximately 9% of projected global GDP in this period. On the global-scale, population growth, socio-economic growth and urbanization are the most important drivers of the overall increase in exposure particularly in developing countries, as low-lying areas are urbanized. Climate change and subsidence can significantly exacerbate this increase in exposure. Exposure is concentrated in a few cities: collectively Asia dominates population exposure now and in the future and also dominates asset exposure by the 2070s. Importantly, even if the environmental or socio-economic changes were smaller than assumed here the underlying trends would remain. This research shows the high potential benefits from risk-reduction planning and policies at the city scale to address the issues raised by the possible growth in exposure.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Flooding and water management
Natural hazards >> Climatic hazards
Marine ecosystems >> Coastal management

Keywords

N/A

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

View this study at:

http://www.springerlink.com/content/g02124153m05410k/
There is a fee to view this study in full

Contact the study author at:

s.e.hanson@soton.ac.uk

Title

Partial costs of global climate change adaptation for the supply of raw industrial
and municipal water: a methodology and application

Reference

Environmental Research Letters 5 (2010) 044011 (10pp)
doi:10.1088/1748-9326/5/4/044011

Author(s)

Philip J Ward, KennethM Strzepek, W Pieter Pauw, Luke M Brander, Gordon A Hughes and Jeroen C J H Aerts

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Despite growing recognition of the importance of climate change adaptation, few global estimates of the costs involved are available for the water supply sector. We present a methodology for estimating partial global and regional adaptation costs for raw industrial and domestic water supply, for a limited number of adaptation strategies, and apply the method using results of two climate models. In this paper, adaptation costs are defined as those for providing enough raw water to meet future industrial and municipal water demand, based on country-level demand projections to 2050. We first estimate costs for a baseline scenario excluding climate change, and then additional climate change adaptation costs. Increased demand is assumed to be met through a combination of increased reservoir yield and alternative backstop measures. Under such controversial measures, we project global adaptation costs of $12 bn p.a., with 83-90% in developing countries; the highest costs are in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Globally, adaptation costs are low compared to baseline costs ($73 bn p.a.), which supports the notion of mainstreaming climate change adaptation into broader policy aims. The method provides a tool for estimating broad costs at the global and regional scale; such information is of key importance in international negotiations.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Flooding and water management
Environmental economics >> Economic impacts of environmental change

Keywords

Adaptation, climate change, costs, global, hydrology, reservoirs, water supply

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

View this study at:

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/5/4/044011/pdf/1748-9326_5_4_044011.pdf This study is free to view

Contact the study author at:

philip.ward@ivm.vu.nl