Climate change and energy - Biodiversity impacts

Title

Differences in the climatic debts of birds and butterflies at a continental scale

Reference

Nature Climate Change
doi:10.1038/nclimate1347

Author(s)

Study type

Peer Review Journal   

Abstract

Climate changes have profound effects on the distribution of numerous plant and animal species. However, whether and how different taxonomic groups are able to track climate changes at large spatial scales is still unclear. Here, we measure and compare the climatic debt accumulated by bird and butterfly communities at a European scale over two decades (1990–2008). We quantified the yearly change in community composition in response to climate change for 9,490 bird and 2,130 butterfly communities distributed across Europe. We show that changes in community composition are rapid but different between birds and butterflies and equivalent to a 37 and 114km northward shift in bird and butterfly communities, respectively. We further found that, during the same period, the northward shift in temperature in Europe was even faster, so that the climatic debts of birds and butterflies correspond to a 212 and 135km lag behind climate. Our results indicate both that birds and butterflies do not keep up with temperature increase and the accumulation of different climatic debts for these groups at national and continental scales.

Policy theme(s)

Biodiversity >> Threats to biodiversity >> Human impacts
Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Biodiversity impacts

Keywords

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Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

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http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1347.html
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vincent.devictor@univ-montp2.fr

Title

Spatiotemporal Variation in Avian Migration Phenology: Citizen Science Reveals Effects of Climate Change

Reference

PLoS ONE, 2012; 7 (2): e31662
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0031662

Author(s)

Allen H. Hurlbert, Zhongfei Liang

Study type

Peer Review Journal    

Abstract

A growing number of studies have documented shifts in avian migratory phenology in response to climate change, and yet there is a large amount of unexplained variation in the magnitude of those responses across species and geographic regions. We use a database of citizen science bird observations to explore spatiotemporal variation in mean arrival dates across an unprecedented geographic extent for 18 common species in North America over the past decade, relating arrival dates to mean minimum spring temperature. Across all species and geographic locations, species shifted arrival dates 0.8 days earlier for every °C of warming of spring temperature, but it was common for some species in some locations to shift as much as 3–6 days earlier per °C. Species that advanced arrival dates the earliest in response to warming were those that migrate more slowly, short distance migrants, and species with broader climatic niches. These three variables explained 63% of the interspecific variation in phenological response. We also identify a latitudinal gradient in the average strength of phenological response, with species shifting arrival earlier at southern latitudes than northern latitudes for the same degree of warming. This observation is consistent with the idea that species must be more phenologically sensitive in less seasonal environments to maintain the same degree of precision in phenological timing.

Policy theme(s)

Biodiversity >> Threats to biodiversity >> Human impacts
Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Biodiversity impacts
Environmental information services >> Environmental communication >> Stakeholder/public engagement

Keywords

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

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http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0031662
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hurlbert@bio.unc.edu

Title

Temperature-driven coral decline: the role of marine protected areas.

Reference

Global Change Biology,
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02658.x

Author(s)

Selig, E.R., Casey, K.S., Bruno, J.F., 2012.

Study type

Peer Review Journal    

Abstract

Warming ocean temperatures are considered to be an important cause of the degradation of the world's coral reefs. Marine protected areas (MPAs) have been proposed as one tool to increase coral reef ecosystem resistance and resilience (i.e. recovery) to the negative effects of climate change, yet few studies have evaluated their efficacy in achieving these goals. We used a high resolution 4 km global temperature anomaly database from 1985-2005 and 8040 live coral cover surveys on protected and unprotected reefs to determine whether MPAs have been effective in mitigating temperature-driven coral loss. Generally, protection in MPAs did not reduce the effect of warm temperature anomalies on coral cover declines. Shortcomings in MPA design, including size and placement, may have contributed to the lack of a MPA effect. Empirical studies suggest that corals that have been previously exposed to moderate levels of thermal stress have greater adaptive capacity and resistance to future thermal stress events. Existing MPAs protect relatively fewer reefs with moderate anomaly frequencies, potentially reducing their effectiveness. However, our results also suggest that the benefits from MPAs may not be great enough to offset the magnitude of losses from acute thermal stress events. Although MPAs are important conservation tools, their limitations in mitigating coral loss from acute thermal stress events suggests that they need to be complemented with policies aimed at reducing the activities responsible for climate change.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Biodiversity impacts
Marine ecosystems >> Biodiversity
Biodiversity >> Habitats >> Protected areas/Natura 2000

Keywords

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

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http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2012.02658.x/abstract
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e.selig@conservation.org

Title

Detecting regional anthropogenic trends in ocean acidification against natural variability

Reference

Nature Climate Change (2012)

doi:10.1038/nclimate1372

Author(s)

Study type

Peer Review Journal    

Abstract

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution humans have released ~500 billion metric tons of carbon to the atmosphere through fossil-fuel burning, cement production and land-use changes. About 30% has been taken up by the oceans. The oceanic uptake of carbon dioxide leads to changes in marine carbonate chemistry resulting in a decrease of seawater pH and carbonate ion concentration, commonly referred to as ocean acidification. Ocean acidification is considered a major threat to calcifying organisms. Detecting its magnitude and impacts on regional scales requires accurate knowledge of the level of natural variability of surface ocean carbonate ion concentrations on seasonal to annual timescales and beyond. Ocean observations are severely limited with respect to providing reliable estimates of the signal-to-noise ratio of human-induced trends in carbonate chemistry against natural factors. Using three Earth system models we show that the current anthropogenic trend in ocean acidification already exceeds the level of natural variability by up to 30 times on regional scales. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the current rates of ocean acidification at monitoring sites in the Atlantic and Pacific oceans exceed those experienced during the last glacial termination by two orders of magnitude.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Biodiversity impacts
Marine ecosystems >> Biodiversity
Marine ecosystems >> Marine pollution

Keywords

Entry Source:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

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http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1372.html
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tobia@hawaii.edu

Title

Reference

Nature (2011) doi:10.1038/nature10650

Author(s)

Christian Hof, Miguel B. Araújo, Walter Jetz & Carsten Rahbek

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Amphibian population declines far exceed those of other vertebrate groups, with 30% of all species listed as threatened by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. The causes of these declines are a matter of continued research, but probably include climate change, land-use change and spread of the pathogenic fungal disease chytridiomycosis. Here we assess the spatial distribution and interactions of these primary threats in relation to the global distribution of amphibian species. We show that the greatest proportions of species negatively affected by climate change are projected to be found in Africa, parts of northern South America and the Andes. Regions with the highest projected impact of land-use and climate change coincide, but there is little spatial overlap with regions highly threatened by the fungal disease. Overall, the areas harbouring the richest amphibian faunas are disproportionately more affected by one or multiple threat factors than areas with low richness. Amphibian declines are likely to accelerate in the twenty-first century, because multiple drivers of extinction could jeopardize their populations more than previous, mono-causal, assessments have suggested.

Policy theme(s)

Biodiversity >> Threats to biodiversity >> Endangered species  
Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Biodiversity impacts

Keywords

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

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http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v480/n7378/full/nature10650.html
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Richard.murray-smith@astrazeneca.com

Title

Crop Wild Relatives—Undervalued, Underutilized and under Threat?

Reference

BioScience 61(7):559-565. 2011
doi: 10.1525/bio.2011.61.7.10

Author(s)

Brian V. Ford-Lloyd, Markus Schmidt, Susan J. Armstrong, Oz Barazani, Jan Engels, Rivka Hadas, Karl Hammer, Shelagh P. Kell, Dingming Kang, Korous Khoshbakht, Yinghui Li, Chunlin Long, Bao-Rong Lu, Keping Ma, Viet Tung Nguyen, Lijuan Qiu, Song Ge, Wei Wei, Zongwen Zhang and Nigel Maxted

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

The world's wealth of plant genetic resources has much value for world food security, but these resources are under considerable threat. Crop improvement, particularly under climate change, depends on the genetic diversity of our plant genetic resources, which are arguably inadequately conserved and poorly used. There is wide recognition that the Convention on Biological Diversity's 2010 targets to reduce the loss of biodiversity have not been met. Biodiversity is at risk from multiple threats, including climate change, and the genetic diversity contained within plant genetic resources, particularly of species that are wild relatives of our crops, faces similar threats but is essential to our ability to respond to the new stresses in the agricultural environment resulting from climate change. It is important to consider the genetic value of these crop wild relatives, how they may be conserved, and what new technologies can be implemented to enhance their use.

Policy theme(s)

Agriculture >> Agricultural management >> Crop management 
Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Biodiversity impacts

Keywords

Genetic resources, crop wild relatives, conservation, climate change

Entry Source:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy Thematic Issue

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

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http://www.jstor.org/pss/10.1525/bio.2011.61.7.10

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b.ford-lloyd@bham.ac.uk

Title

Changes in plant community composition lag behind climate warming in lowland forests

Reference

Nature(2011)
doi:10.1038/nature10548

Author(s)

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Climate change is driving latitudinal and altitudinal shifts in species distribution worldwide, leading to novel species assemblages. Lags between these biotic responses and contemporary climate changes have been reported for plants and animals. Theoretically, the magnitude of these lags should be greatest in lowland areas, where the velocity of climate change is expected to be much greater than that in highland areas. We compared temperature trends to temperatures reconstructed from plant assemblages (observed in 76,634 surveys) over a 44-year period in France (1965-2008). Here we report that forest plant communities had responded to 0.54°C of the effective increase of 1.07°C in highland areas (500-2,600m above sea level), while they had responded to only 0.02°C of the 1.11°C warming trend in lowland areas. There was a larger temperature lag (by 3.1 times) between the climate and plant community composition in lowland forests than in highland forests. The explanation of such disparity lies in the following properties of lowland, as compared to highland, forests: the higher proportion of species with greater ability for local persistence as the climate warms, the reduced opportunity for short-distance escapes, and the greater habitat fragmentation. Although mountains are currently considered to be among the ecosystems most threatened by climate change (owing to mountaintop extinction), the current inertia of plant communities in lowland forests should also be noted, as it could lead to lowland biotic attrition.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Biodiversity impacts

Keywords

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

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N/A

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http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature10548.html
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Romain.bertrand@engref.agroparistech.fr

Title

Projection of climatic suitability for Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae) in Europe under climate change conditions

Reference

Global and Planetary Change
Volume 78, Issues 1-2, July 2011, Pages 54-64

Author(s)

Dominik Fischer, Stephanie Margarete Thomas, Franziska Niemitz, Björn Reineking, Carl Beierkuhnlein

Study type

Peer Review Journal / Report

Abstract

During the last decades the disease vector Aedes albopictus (Ae. albopictus) has rapidly spread around the globe. The spread of this species raises serious public health concerns. Here, we model the present distribution and the future climatic suitability of Europe for this vector in the face of climate change. In order to achieve the most realistic current prediction and future projection, we compare the performance of four different modelling approaches, differentiated by the selection of climate variables (based on expert knowledge vs. statistical criteria) and by the geographical range of presence records (native range vs. global range).
First, models of the native and global range were built with MaxEnt and were either based on (1) statistically selected climatic input variables or (2) input variables selected with expert knowledge from the literature. Native models show high model performance (AUC: 0.91-0.94) for the native range, but do not predict the European distribution well (AUC: 0.70-0.72). Models based on the global distribution of the species, however, were able to identify all regions where Ae. albopictus is currently established, including Europe (AUC: 0.89-0.91).
In a second step, the modelled bioclimatic envelope of the global range was projected to future climatic conditions in Europe using two emission scenarios implemented in the regional climate model COSMO-CLM for three time periods 2011–2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. For both global-driven models, the results indicate that climatically suitable areas for the establishment of Ae. albopictus will increase in western and central Europe already in 2011-2040 and with a temporal delay in eastern Europe. On the other hand, a decline in climatically suitable areas in southern Europe is pronounced in the Expert knowledge based model. Our projections appear unaffected by non-analogue climate, as this is not detected by Multivariate Environmental Similarity Surface analysis.
The generated risk maps can aid in identifying suitable habitats for Ae. albopictus and hence support monitoring and control activities to avoid disease vector establishment.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Biodiversity impacts
Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Social and health impacts

Keywords

Asian tiger mosquito; dengue; global change; global warming; species distribution model; invasion; vector-borne disease

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

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http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0921818111000798
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uni-bayreuth.de 

Title

Environmental and anthropogenic determinants of vegetation distribution across Africa

Reference

Global Ecology and Biogeography
Volume 20, Issue 5, pages 661-674, September 2011
EU funded

Author(s)

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Aim: To assess the influence of natural environmental factors and historic and current anthropogenic processes as determinants of vegetation distributions at a continental scale.
Location: Africa.
Methods: Boosted regression trees (BRTs) were used to model the distribution of African vegetation types, represented by remote-sensing-based land-cover (LC) types, as a function of environmental factors. The contribution of each predictor variable to the best models and the accuracy of all models were assessed. Subsequently, to test for anthropogenic vegetation transformation, the relationship between the number of BRT false presences per grid cell and human impact was evaluated using hurdle models. Finally, the relative contributions of environmental, current and historic anthropogenic factors on vegetation distribution were assessed using regression-based variation partitioning.
Results: Deserts and evergreen forests were best predicted by environmental variables, though most other LC classes were also relatively well predicted by the environment. Annual precipitation emerged as the most important determinant of all LC classes. At low rainfall levels, LC classes with increasing woody cover replaced each other as rainfall increased, while LC class rainfall optima overlapped at high rainfall levels. With some exceptions, anthropogenic factors had a relatively small influence on the distribution of most LC classes. However, anthropogenic factors did have an influence on the inaccuracies in BRT models, and these models provided an indication of which LC classes have been most reduced by transformation.
Main conclusions: Here we show, for the first time, how environmental and anthropogenic factors influence vegetation distribution across Africa. LC classes at rainfall extremes are best predicted by the environment. In addition, we corroborate, also for the first time, the much-stated claim that rainfall is the most important variable for the distribution of African vegetation for all African vegetation types. Finally, we indicate how anthropogenic drivers affect LC distributions.

Policy theme(s)

Biodiversity >> Threats to biodiversity >> Human impacts
Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Biodiversity impacts

Keywords

Africa; climate; continental scale; distribution modelling; human influence; precipitation; vegetation distribution

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

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http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00666.x/abstract
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michelle_greve@yahoo.com

Title

The future of terrestrial mammals in the Mediterranean basin under climate change

Reference

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 27 September 2011 vol. 366 no. 1578 2681-2692

Author(s)

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

The Mediterranean basin is considered a hotspot of biological diversity with a long history of modification of natural ecosystems by human activities, and is one of the regions that will face extensive changes in climate. For 181 terrestrial mammals (68% of all Mediterranean mammals), we used an ensemble forecasting approach to model the future (approx. 2100) potential distribution under climate change considering five climate change model outputs for two climate scenarios. Overall, a substantial number of Mediterranean mammals will be severely threatened by future climate change, particularly endemic species. Moreover, we found important changes in potential species richness owing to climate change, with some areas (e.g. montane region in central Italy) gaining species, while most of the region will be losing species (mainly Spain and North Africa). Existing protected areas (PAs) will probably be strongly influenced by climate change, with most PAs in Africa, the Middle East and Spain losing a substantial number of species, and those PAs gaining species (e.g. central Italy and southern France) will experience a substantial shift in species composition.

Policy theme(s)

Biodiversity >> Threats to biodiversity >> Endangered species
Biodiversity >> Habitats >> Protected areas/Natura 2000
Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Biodiversity impacts

Keywords

climate change; ensemble modelling; extinction risk; species distribution models; protected areas

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

View this study at:

http://rstb.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/366/1578/2681
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luigi.maiorano@unil.ch

Title

Coral and mollusc resistance to ocean acidification moderated by warming

Reference

Nature Climate Change 1, 308–31(2011) doi:10.1038/nclimate1200
EU funded

Author(s)

R. Rodolfo-Metalpa, F. Houlbrèque, É. Tambutté, F. Boisson, C. Baggini, F. P. Patti, R. Jeffree,M. Fine, A. Foggo, J-P. Gattuso  and J. M. HallSpencer

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are expected to decrease surface ocean pH by 0.3–0.5 units by 2100 (refs 1,2), lowering the carbonate ion concentration of surface waters. This rapid acidification is predicted to dramatically decrease calcification in many marine organisms. Reduced skeletal growth under elevated CO₂ levels has already been shown for corals, molluscs and many other marine organisms 4-9. The impact of acidification on the ability of individual species to calcify has remained elusive, however,as measuring net calcification fails to disentangle the relative contributions of gross calcification and dissolution rates on growth. Here, we show that corals and molluscs transplanted along gradients of carbonate saturation state at Mediterranean CO₂ vents are able to calcify and grow at even faster than normal rates when exposed to the high CO₂ levels projected for the next 300 years. Calcifiers remain at risk, however, owing to the dissolution of exposed shells and skeletons that occurs as pH levels fall. Our results show that tissues and external organic layers play a major role in protecting shells and skeletons from corrosive seawater, limiting dissolution laboratory results demonstrate that the adverse effects of global warming are exacerbated when high temperatures coincide with acidification.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy>> Climate change adaptation >> Biodiversity impacts
Marine ecosystems >> Biodiversity

Keywords

• Biodiversity and ecosystems;  Biology;  Conservation

Entry Source:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

View this study at:

http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v1/n6/full/nclimate1200.html
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riccardo@rodolfo-metalpa.com

Title

Reduced N cycling in response to elevated CO₂, warming, and drought in a Danish heathland: Synthesizing results of the CLIMAITE project after two years of treatments.

Reference

Global Change Biology, 2011; 17 (5): 1884 DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2652.2010.02351.x

Author(s)

Klaus S. Larsen, Louise C. Andresen, Claus Beier, Sven Jonasson, Kristian R. Albert, Per Ambus, Marie F. Arndal, Mette S. Carter, Søren Christensen, Martin Holmstrup, Andreas Ibrom, Jane Kongstad, Leon Van Der Linden, Kristine Maraldo, Anders Michelsen, Teis N. Mikkelsen, Kim Pilegaard, Anders Priemé, Helge Ro-Poulsen, Inger K. Schmidt, Merete B. Selsted, Karen Stevnbak.

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Field-scale experiments simulating realistic future climate scenarios are important tools for investigating the effects of current and future climate changes on ecosystem functioning and biogeochemical cycling. We exposed a seminatural Danish heathland ecosystem to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), warming, and extended summer drought in all combinations. Here, we report on the short-term responses of the nitrogen (N) cycle after 2 years of treatments. Elevated CO₂ significantly affected aboveground stoichiometry by increasing the carbon to nitrogen (C/N) ratios in the leaves of both co-dominant species (Calluna vulgaris and Deschampsia flexuosa), as well as the C/N ratios of Calluna flowers and by reducing the N concentration of Deschampsia litter. Belowground, elevated CO₂ had only minor effects, whereas warming increased N turnover, as indicated by increased rates of microbial NH₄⁺ consumption, gross mineralization, potential nitrification, denitrification and N₂O emissions. Drought reduced belowground gross N mineralization and decreased fauna N mass and fauna N mineralization. Leaching was unaffected by treatments but was significantly higher across all treatments in the second year than in the much drier first year indicating that ecosystem N loss is highly sensitive to changes and variability in amount and timing of precipitation. Interactions between treatments were common and although some synergistic effects were observed, antagonism dominated the interactive responses in treatment combinations, i.e. responses were smaller in combinations than in single treatments. Nonetheless, increased C/N ratios of photosynthetic tissue in response to elevated CO₂, as well as drought-induced decreases in litter N production and fauna N mineralization prevailed in the full treatment combination. Overall, the simulated future climate scenario therefore lead to reduced N turnover, which could act to reduce the potential growth response of plants to elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Biodiversity impacts
Soil >> Soil carbon and nitrogen

Keywords

climate driver interactions;C/N ratio;multifactor climate change experiment;N₂O;nitrogen cycling;nitrogen mineralization;soil fauna

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

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http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2652.2010.02351.x/full
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klas@risoe.dtu.dk

Title

Climate-Forced Variability of Ocean Hypoxia

Reference

Science, 2011; DOI: 10.1126/science.1202422

Author(s)

C. Deutsch, H. Brix, T. Ito, H. Frenzel, L. Thompson

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Oxygen is a critical constraint on marine ecosystems. As oceanic O₂ falls to hypoxic concentrations, habitability for aerobic organisms decreases rapidly. We show that the spatial extent of hypoxia is highly sensitive to small changes in the ocean's O₂ content, with maximum responses at suboxic concentrations where anaerobic metabolisms predominate. In model-based reconstructions of historical oxygen changes, the world's largest suboxic zone, in the Pacific Ocean, varies in size by two-fold. This is due to climate-driven changes in the depth of the tropical and subtropical thermocline that have multiplicative effects on respiration rates in low-O₂ water. The same mechanism yields even larger fluctuations in the rate of nitrogen removal via denitrification, creating a link between decadal climate oscillations and the nutrient limitation of marine photosynthesis.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Biodiversity impacts
Marine ecosystems >> Fisheries

Keywords

N/A

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

View this study at:

http://www.sciencemag.org/content/333/6040/336.abstract
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cdeutsch@atmos.ucla.edu

Title

Climate change vulnerability of forest biodiversity: climate and competition tracking of demographic rates

Reference

Global Change Biology, 2011; 17 (5): 1834
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2652.2010.02380.x

Author(s)

James S. Clark, David M. Bell, Michelle H. Hersh, Lauren Nichols

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Forest responses to climate change will depend on demographic impacts in the context of competition. Current models used to predict species responses, termed climate envelope models (CEMs), are controversial, because (i) calibration and prediction are based on correlations in space (CIS) between species abundance and climate, rather than responses to climate change over time (COT), and (ii) they omit competition. To determine the relative importance of COT, CIS, and competition for light, we applied a longitudinal analysis of 27 000 individual trees over 6–18 years subjected to experimental and natural variation in risk factors. Sensitivities and climate and resource tracking identify which species are vulnerable to these risk factors and in what ways. Results show that responses to COT differ from those predicted based on CIS. The most important impact is the effect of spring temperature on fecundity, rather than any input variable on growth or survival. Of secondary importance is growing season moisture. Species in the genera Pinus, Ulmus, Magnolia, and Fagus are particularly vulnerable to climate variation. However, the effect of competition on growth and mortality risk exceeds the effects of climate variation in space or time for most species. Because sensitivities to COT and competition are larger than CIS, current models miss the most important effects. By directly comparing sensitivity to climate in time and space, together with competition, the approach identifies which species are sensitive to climate change and why, including the heretofore overlooked impact on fecundity.

Policy theme(s)

Biodiversity >> Habitats >> Habitat management
Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Biodiversity impacts
Forests >> Forest protection >> Forest biodiversity

Keywords

bayesian analysis, climate change, climate tracking,competition,drought,resource tracking, tree demography

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

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http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2652.2010.02380.x/abstract
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jimclark@duke.edu

Title

Anthropogenic impacts on marine ecosystems in Antarctica

Reference

Author(s)

Richard B. Aronson, Sven Thatje, James B. McClintock, Kevin A. Hughes.

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Antarctica is the most isolated continent on Earth, but it has not escaped the negative impacts of human activity.The unique marine ecosystems of Antarctica and their endemic faunas are affected on local and regional scales by
overharvesting, pollution, and the introduction of alien species. Global climate change is also having deleterious impacts: rising sea temperatures and ocean acidification already threaten benthic and pelagic food webs. The Antarctic Treaty System can address local- to regional-scale impacts, but it does not have purview over the global problems that impinge on Antarctica, such as emissions of greenhouse gases. Failure to address human impacts simultaneously at all scales will lead to the degradation of Antarctic marine ecosystems and the homogenization of their composition, structure, and processes with marine ecosystems elsewhere.

Policy theme(s)

Biodiversity >> Threats to biodiversity >> Human impacts
Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Biodiversity impacts
Marine ecosystems >> Biodiversity

Keywords

Antarctic Treaty, Antarctica, biodiversity, biological invasion, biotic homogenization, conservation, global warming

Entry Source:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

View this study at:

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1749-6632.2010.05926.x/abstract
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raronson@fit.edu

Title

Impact of climate change and human-mediated introgression on southern European Atlantic salmon populations

Reference

Global Change Biology
Volume 17, Issue 5, pages 1778-1787, May 2011

Author(s)

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

This study focuses on temporal changes in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) populations from the vulnerable periphery of the species range (northern Spain). Using microsatellite markers to assess population structuring and introgression of exogenous genes in four different temporal samples collected across 20 years, we have determined the relative weights of climate and stocking practices in shaping contemporary regional population genetic patterns. Climate, represented by the North Atlantic Oscillation Index, was identified as the main factor for determining the level of population genetic differentiation. Populations within the region have become homogenized through gene flow enhanced by straying of adult salmon from natal rivers and subsequent interchange of genes among rivers due to warmer temperatures. At the same time, and in line with documented changes in stock transfer strategies, evidence of genetic introgression from past stock transfers has decreased throughout the study period, becoming a secondary factor in erasing population structuring. The ability to disentangle the effects of climatic changes and anthropogenic factors (fisheries management practices) is essential for effective long-term conservation of this iconic species. We emphasize the importance of evaluating all factors which may be linked to stocking practices in vulnerable species, particularly those sensitive to climate change.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Biodiversity impacts
Marine ecosystems >> Biodiversity

Keywords

anthropogenic-mediated migration, gene flow, NAOI, population structure, Salmo salar

Entry Source:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

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http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2652.2010.02350.x/abstract
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e-mail: egv@uniovi.es

Title

Climate change increases the risk of malaria in birds

Reference

Global Change Biology
Volume 17, Issue 5, pages 1751-1759, May 2011

Author(s)

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Malaria caused by Plasmodium parasites is one of the worst scourges of mankind and threatens wild animal populations. Therefore, identifying mechanisms that mediate the spread of the disease is crucial for both human health and conservation. Human-induced climate change has been hypothesized to alter the geographic distribution of malaria pathogens. As the earth warms, arthropod vectors may display a general range expansion or may enjoy longer breeding season, both of which can enhance parasite transmission. Moreover, Plasmodium species may directly benefit for elevating temperatures, which provide stimulating conditions for parasite reproduction. To test for the link between climate change and malaria prevalence on a global scale for the first time, I used long-term records on avian malaria, which is a key model for studying the dynamics of naturally occurring malarial infections. Following the variation in parasite prevalence in more than 3000 bird species over seven decades, I show that the infection rate by Plasmodium is strongly associated with temperature anomalies and has been augmented with accelerating tendency during the last 20 years. The impact of climate change on malaria prevalence varies across continents, with the strongest effects found for Europe and Africa. Migration habit did not predict susceptibility to the escalating parasite pressure by Plasmodium. Consequently, wild birds are at an increasing risk of malaria infection due to recent climate change, which can endanger both naive bird populations and domesticated animals. The prevailing avian example may provide useful lessons for understanding the effect of climate change on malaria in humans

Policy theme(s)

Biodiversity >> Threats to biodiversity >> Human impacts
Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Biodiversity impacts

Keywords

Anopheles, Culex, global warming, parasite transmission, risk management, vector-borne infectious diseases

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

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http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2652.2010.02346.x/full
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laszlo.garamszegi@ebd.csic.es

Title

Adapting global conservation strategies to climate change at the European scale: The otter as a flagship species

Reference

Biological Conservation
Volume 144, Issue 8, August 2011, Pages 2068-2080

Author(s)

Carmen Cianfrani, Gwenaëlle Le Lay, Luigi Maiorano, Héctor F. Satizábal, Anna Loy and Antoine Guisan

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Climate change has created the need for new strategies in conservation planning that account for the dynamics of factors threatening endangered species.
Here we assessed climate change threat to the European otter, a flagship species for freshwater ecosystems, considering how current conservation areas will perform in preserving the species in a climatically changed future. We used an ensemble forecasting approach considering six modelling techniques applied to eleven subsets of otter occurrences across Europe. We performed a pseudo-independent and an internal evaluation of predictions. Future projections of species distribution were made considering the A2 and B2 scenarios for 2080 across three climate models: CCCMA-CGCM2, CSIRO-MK2 and HCCPR HADCM3. The current and the predicted otter distributions were used to identify priority areas for the conservation of the species, and overlapped to existing network of protected areas.
Our projections show that climate change may profoundly reshuffle the otter's potential distribution in Europe, with important differences between the two scenarios we considered. Overall, the priority areas for conservation of the otter in Europe appear to be unevenly covered by the existing network of protected areas, with the current conservation efforts being insufficient in most cases. For a better conservation, the existing protected areas should be integrated within a more general conservation and management strategy incorporating climate change projections. Due to the important role that the otter plays for freshwater habitats, our study further highlights the potential sensitivity of freshwater habitats in Europe to climate change.

Policy theme(s)

Biodiversity >> Threats to biodiversity >> Endangered species
Biodiversity >> Habitats >> Habitat management
Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Biodiversity impacts

Keywords

Long-term conservation plan, Climate change, Freshwater ecosystem, Ensemble forecasting, Species distribution models

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Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

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N/A

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http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S000632071100125X
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carmen.cianfrani@unil.ch

Title

Climatic Factors Driving Invasion of the Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into New Areas of Trentino, Northern Italy

Reference

PLoS ONE 6(4): e14800. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0014800

Author(s)

David Roiz, Markus Neteler, Cristina Castellani, Daniele Arnoldi, Annapaola Rizzoli

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Background
The tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), vector of several emerging diseases, is expanding into more northerly latitudes as well as into higher altitudes in northern Italy. Changes in the pattern of distribution of the tiger mosquito may affect the potential spread of infectious diseases transmitted by this species in Europe. Therefore, predicting suitable areas of future establishment and spread is essential for planning early prevention and control strategies.
Methodology/Principal Findings
To identify the areas currently most suitable for the occurrence of the tiger mosquito in the Province of Trento, we combined field entomological observations with analyses of satellite temperature data (MODIS Land Surface Temperature: LST) and human population data. We determine threshold conditions for the survival of overwintering eggs and for adult survival using both January mean temperatures and annual mean temperatures. We show that the 0°C LST threshold for January mean temperatures and the 11°C threshold for annual mean temperatures provide the best predictors for identifying the areas that could potentially support populations of this mosquito. In fact, human population density and distance to human settlements appear to be less important variables affecting mosquito distribution in this area. Finally, we evaluated the future establishment and spread of this species in relation to predicted climate warming by considering the A2 scenario for 2050 statistically downscaled at regional level in which winter and annual temperatures increase by 1.5 and 1°C, respectively.
Conclusions/Significance
MODIS satellite LST data are useful for accurately predicting potential areas of tiger mosquito distribution and for revealing the range limits of this species in mountainous areas, predictions which could be extended to an European scale. We show that the observed trend of increasing temperatures due to climate change could facilitate further invasion of Ae. albopictus into new areas.

Policy theme(s)

Biodiversity >> Threats to biodiversity >> Invasive species
Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Biodiversity impacts

Keywords

N/A

Entry Source:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

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N/A

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http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0014800
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davidroiz@gmail.com

Title

Consequences of climate change on the tree of life in Europe

Reference

Nature  Vol: 470 February 2011
doi:10.1038/nature09705

Author(s)

Wilfried Thuiller, Sébastien Lavergne, Cristina Roquet, Isabelle Boulangeat, Bruno Lafourcade & Miguel. B. Araujo

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Many species are projected to become vulnerable to twenty-first-century climate changes, with consequent effects on the tree of life. If losses were not randomly distributed across the tree of life, climate change could lead to a disproportionate loss of evolutionary history. Here we estimate the consequences of climate change on the phylogenetic diversities of plant, bird and mammal assemblages across Europe. Using a consensus across ensembles of forecasts for 2020, 2050 and 2080 and high-resolution phylogenetic trees, we show that species vulnerability to climate change clusters weakly across phylogenies. Such phylogenetic signal in species vulnerabilities does not lead to higher loss of evolutionary history than expected with a model of random extinctions. This is because vulnerable species have neither fewer nor closer relatives than the remaining clades. Reductions in phylogenetic diversity will be greater in southern Europe, and gains are expected in regions of high latitude or altitude. However, losses will not be offset by gains and the tree of life faces a trend towards homogenization across the continent.

Policy theme(s)

Biodiversity >> Threats to biodiversity >> Human impacts
Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Biodiversity impacts

Keywords

N/A

Entry Source:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

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http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v470/n7335/full/nature09705.html
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wilfried.thuiller@ujf-grenoble.fr

Title

Reserve design for uncertain responses of coral reefs to climate change

Reference

DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01562.x
Ecology Letters Volume 14, Issue 2, pages 132-140, February 2011

Author(s)

Peter J. Mumby, Ian A. Elliott,C. Mark Eakin, William Skirving, Claire B. Paris, Helen J. Edwards, Susana Enríquez, Roberto Iglesias-Prieto, Laurent M. Cherubin, Jamie R. Stevens

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Rising sea temperatures cause mass coral bleaching and threaten reefs worldwide. We show how maps of variations in thermal stress can be used to help manage reefs for climate change. We map proxies of chronic and acute thermal stress and develop evidence-based hypotheses for the future response of corals to each stress regime. We then incorporate spatially realistic predictions of larval connectivity among reefs of the Bahamas and apply novel reserve design algorithms to create reserve networks for a changing climate. We show that scales of larval dispersal are large enough to connect reefs from desirable thermal stress regimes into a reserve network. Critically, we find that reserve designs differ according to the anticipated scope for phenotypic and genetic adaptation in corals, which remains uncertain. Attempts to provide a complete reserve design that hedged against different evolutionary outcomes achieved limited success, which emphasises the importance of considering the scope for adaptation explicitly. Nonetheless, 15% of reserve locations were selected under all evolutionary scenarios, making them a high priority for early designation. Our approach allows new insights into coral holobiont adaptation to be integrated directly into an adaptive approach to management.

Policy theme(s)

Biodiversity >> Habitats >> Protected areas/Natura 2000
Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Biodiversity impacts
Marine ecosystems >> Biodiversity

Keywords

Acclimation, adaptation, algorithm, connectivity, conservation, coral, marine reserve

Entry Source:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

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http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01562.x/abstract
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p.j.mumby@uq.edu.au

Title

Topographically controlled thermal-habitat differentiation buffers alpine plant diversity against climate warming

Reference

Journal of Biogeography, 2010
DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2010.02407.x

Author(s)

Daniel Scherrer, Christian Körner

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

We aim to: (1) explore thermal habitat preferences in alpine plant species across mosaics of topographically controlled micro-habitats; (2) test the predictive value of so-called 'indicator values'; and (3) quantify the shift in micro-habitat conditions under the influence of climate warming.
Location: Alpine vegetation 2200-2800 m a.s.l., Swiss central Alps.
Methods: High-resolution infra-red thermometry and large numbers of small data loggers were used to assess the spatial and temporal variation of plant-surface and ground temperatures as well as snow-melt patterns for 889 plots distributed across three alpine slopes of contrasting exposure. These environmental data were then correlated with Landolt indicator values for temperature preferences of different plant species and vegetation units. By simulating a uniform 2 K warming we estimated the changes in abundance of micro-habitat temperatures within the study area.
Results: Within the study area we observed a substantial variation between micro-habitats in seasonal mean soil temperature (ΔT = 7.2 K), surface temperature (ΔT = 10.5 K) and season length (>32 days). Plant species with low indicator values for temperature (plants commonly found in cool habitats) grew in significantly colder micro-habitats than plants with higher indicator values found on the same slope. A 2 K warming will lead to the loss of the coldest habitats (3% of current area), 75% of the current thermal micro-habitats will be reduced in abundance (crowding effect) and 22% will become more abundant.
Main conclusions: Our results demonstrate that the topographically induced mosaics of micro-climatic conditions in an alpine landscape are associated with local plant species distribution. Semi-quantitative plant species indicator values based on expert knowledge and aggregated to community means match measured thermal habitat conditions. Metre-scale thermal contrasts significantly exceed IPCC warming projections for the next 100 years. The data presented here thus indicate a great risk of overestimating alpine habitat losses in isotherm-based model scenarios. While all but the species depending on the very coldest micro-habitats will find thermally suitable 'escape' habitats within short distances, there will be enhanced competition for those cooler places on a given slope in an alpine climate that is 2 K warmer. Yet, due to their topographic variability, alpine landscapes are likely to be safer places for most species than lowland terrain in a warming world.

Policy theme(s)

Biodiversity >> Habitats >> Habitat management
Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Biodiversity impacts

Keywords

Climate change, indicator values, micro-habitat, snow distribution, soil
temperature, species diversity, surface temperature, Switzerland, thermometry.

Entry Source:

N/A

Referred to in EC doc:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

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http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1365-2699.2010.02407.x/abstract
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daniel.scherrer@unibas.ch

Title

Global Ocean protection : Present Status and Future Possibilities

Reference

IUCN 23 November 2010

Author(s)

Toropova, C., Meliane, I., Laffoley, D., Matthews, E. and Spalding, M. (eds.)

Study type

Report

Abstract

This publication provides a much needed and timely tool to assist in the collective effort to find new and better solutions to address the various threats to the marine biological diversity and productivity. It provides evidence-based recommendations on improving and accelerating actions on delivering ocean protection and management through marine protected areas and facilitates the sharing of experiences and lessons learned.

Policy theme(s)

Marine ecosystems >> Biodiversity
Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Biodiversity impacts

Keywords

Marine ecosystems, Ocean protection, Marine protected areas

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

View this study at:

http://data.iucn.org/dbtw-wpd/edocs/2010-053.pdf
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Contact the study author at:

publications@iucn.org