Climate change and energy - Agricultural adaptation

Title

Future productivity of fallow systems in Sub-Saharan Africa: Is the effect of demographic pressure and fallow reduction more significant than climate change?

Reference

Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Volume 151, Issue 8, 15 August 2011, Pages 1120-1130

Author(s)

Thomas Gaiser, Michael Judex, Attanda Mouinou Igué, Heiko Paeth, Claudia Hiepe

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

In this century climate change is assumed to be the major driver for changes in agricultural systems and crop productivity at the global scale. However, due to spatial differences in cropping systems and in the magnitude of climatic change regional variations of climate change impact are expected. Furthermore, the recent climate projections are highly uncertain for large parts of West Africa. In particular with respect to annual precipitation and variability the projections vary between trends with decreasing precipitation and trends with slightly increasing precipitation within the next decades. On the other hand, the extensive fallow systems in this region suffer from increasing population pressure, which compromises soil fertility restoration. In the Republic of Benin, the demographic projections for the first half of this century indicate a continuous growth of the population with a narrow interval of confidence. Thus, in the absence of an adequate soil fertility management with judicious use of mineral fertilizers, the soil degradation process with decreasing crop yields is expected to continue. The objective of this paper was, therefore, to quantify the regional effect of future population growth on crop yields in West Africa and to compare it with the potential effects of climate change scenarios. Three land use scenarios (L1, L2 and L3) for the Upper Ouémé catchment where derived from different demographic projections combined with assumptions regarding future road networks and legal frameworks for forest protection using the CLUE-S modeling approach. The fallow-cropland ratio decreased in the three scenarios from 0.87 in the year 2000 to 0.66, 0.48 and 0.68 for L1, L2 and L3, respectively in 2050. Based on the projected ratio of fallow and cropland, trends of maize yield for the three land use scenarios were calculated using the EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model coupled with a spatial database. Maize yields followed the decreasing trend of the fallow-cropland ratio and estimated yield reductions amounted to up to 24% in the period 2021–2050. This trend was compared with the impact of the SRES climate scenarios A1B and B1 based on the output of the GCM ECHAM5 downscaled with the REMO model and the A1B scenario output of the GCM HADC3Q0 downscaled with the RCMs SMHIRCA and HADRM3P. The yield reductions due to the projected climate change in the three models accounted for a yield decrease of up to 18% (REMO A1B scenario) in the same period. Taking into account the smaller uncertainties in the scenario assumptions and in the model output of the land use scenarios, it is concluded that, in low input fallow systems in West Africa, land use effects will be at least as important as climate effects within the next decades.

Policy theme(s)

Agriculture >> Agricultural management >> Crop management
Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Agricultural adaptation        
Sustainable development and policy assessment >> Sustainable economic development >> Sustainable development in developing countries

Keywords

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

View this study at:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0168192311001122
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Contact the study author at:

tgaiser@uni-bonn.de

Title

Resistance and resilience of the soil microbial biomass to severe drought in semiarid soils: The importance of organic amendments

Reference

Applied Soil Ecology
Volume 50, October 2011, Pages 27-36

Author(s)

S. Hueso,  T. Hernández, C. García

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Changes in mean global air temperature and precipitation patterns, leading to longer drought periods and more extremely dry years, are predicted. The objective of this work was to assess whether a long period of severe drought can affect the growth and activity of the microbiota of a semiarid soil, as well as the effect of organic amendments on soil resistance and resilience to this severe drought. A soil incubation experiment was carried out over 60 days, under controlled conditions (25 °C and 60/80% day/night relative humidity), with two treatments: unamended (US) and amended (AS) with manure compost (100 t ha−1). Two levels of irrigation were imposed: (1) well-watered (MUS and MAS), the soil being maintained at 60% of its water-holding capacity (WHC), and (2) dry, without irrigation (DUS and DAS). Then, a single level of irrigation was established for 37 days, dry soils being irrigated under the same conditions than well-watered soils, to assess soil resilience to this period of drought. Under well-watered conditions, the soil water-soluble nitrogen contents were 73 and 88% higher, the microbial biomass carbon 63 and 48% higher, alkaline phosphomonoesterase activity 46 and 32% higher, β-glucosidase activity 16 and 25% higher and urease activity 30 and 19% higher for the US and AS treatments, respectively, compared with the dry conditions at the end of the experimental period. Furthermore, the organic amendment helped the soil to retain moisture and encouraged the growth and activity of soil microbial populations. However, a 2-month drought seems insufficient to destroy the native microbial biomass in the arid soil used in this study, indicating that it is well adapted to adverse climate conditions. Thus, microbiological and biochemical parameters experienced a rapid recovery after soil rewetting, DUS and DAS showing values similar to MUS and MAS, after rewetting, highlighting the resilience of this type of soil against drought stress.

Policy theme(s)

Agriculture >> Agricultural management >> Soil management
Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Agricultural adaptation         
Soil >> Soil biodiversity

Keywords

Drought; Rewetting; Semiarid soils; Organic amendments; Microbiological properties; Soil enzymes

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

View this study at:

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0929139311001582

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Contact the study author at:

shuesomartos@yahoo.es

Title

Using Small-Scale Adaptation Actions to Address the Food Crisis in the Horn of Africa: Going beyond Food Aid and Cash Transfers

Reference

Sustainability2011, 3, 1510-1516;
doi:10.3390/su3091510

Author(s)

Richard Munang  and Johnson N. Nkem

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

The countries Kenya, Uganda, Somalia, Ethiopia and Djibouti are facing the worst food crisis of the 21st century as a result of devastating droughts. The crisis is causing starvation and leading to a lack of access to clean water and sanitation for over 12 million people. Not only are the direct drought effects endured now by the population, but they have weakened response capacity and created diminished prospects of ever achieving future water and food security. Over the coming decades, temperatures in this region will continue to rise and rainfall patterns will change. This will create major problems for food production and availability. Thus, building resilience in communities is indispensable as we adapt our farming systems to the challenges of climate change. This will require practical solutions that can build on processes involving adaptation to climate change. The lessons learned from the UN-led project in Uganda, demonstrate the value of small scale innovative interventions, carried out using democratic approaches to help support adaptation to climate change whilst progressing to achieve food security and chart a new Path to eliminate hunger. These lessons should be our guiding vision as we address the current droughts plaguing the Horn of East Africa and elsewhere.

Policy theme(s)

Agriculture >> Agricultural management >> Food security
Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Agricultural adaptation        
Sustainable development and policy assessment >> Sustainable economic development >> Sustainable development in developing countries

Keywords

climate change adaptation; small scale solutions; food security

Entry Source:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

View this study at:

http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/3/9/1510/
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Contact the study author at:

richard.munang@unep.org

Title

Looking into the future of agriculture in a changing climate

Reference

European Review of Agricultural Economics pp. 1-21
doi:10.1093/erae/jbr037

Author(s)

Ana Iglesias, Sonia Quiroga and Agustin Diz

Study type

Peer Review Journal / Report

Abstract

Looking into the future of agriculture raises three challenging questions: How can agriculture deal with an uncertain future? How do local vulnerabilities and global disparities respond to this uncertain future? How should we prioritise adaptation to overcome the resulting future risks? This paper analyses the broad question of how climate change science may provide some insights into these issues. The data provided for the analysis are the product of our new research on global impacts of climate change in agriculture. The questions are analysed across world regions to provide some thoughts on policy development.

Policy theme(s)

Agriculture >> Agricultural management >> Food security
Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Agricultural adaptation
Sustainable development and policy assessment >> Sustainable economic development >> Sustainable development in developing countries

Keywords

climate change, climate extremes, uncertainty, land productivity,
adaptive capacity

Entry Source:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

View this study at:

http://erae.oxfordjournals.org/content/38/3/427.abstract
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Contact the study author at:

ana.iglesias@upm.es

Title

Modelling the effects of past and future climate on the risk of bluetongue emergence in Europe.

Reference

Journal of The Royal Society Interface, 2011; DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2011.0255

Author(s)

H. Guis, C. Caminade, C. Calvete, A. P. Morse, A. Tran, M. Baylis.

Study type

Peer Review Journal

Abstract

Vector-borne diseases are among those most sensitive to climate because the ecology of vectors and the development rate of pathogens within them are highly dependent on environmental conditions. Bluetongue (BT), a recently emerged arboviral disease of ruminants in Europe, is often cited as an illustration of climate's impact on disease emergence, although no study has yet tested this association. Here, we develop a framework to quantitatively evaluate the effects of climate on BT's emergence in Europe by integrating high-resolution climate observations and model simulations within a mechanistic model of BT transmission risk. We demonstrate that a climate-driven model explains, in both space and time, many aspects of BT's recent emergence and spread, including the 2006 BT outbreak in northwest Europe which occurred in the year of highest projected risk since at least 1960. Furthermore, the model provides mechanistic insight into BT's emergence, suggesting that the drivers of emergence across Europe differ between the South and the North. Driven by simulated future climate from an ensemble of 11 regional climate models, the model projects increase in the future risk of BT emergence across most of Europe with uncertainty in rate but not in trend. The framework described here is adaptable and applicable to other diseases, where the link between climate and disease transmission risk can be quantified, permitting the evaluation of scale and uncertainty in climate change's impact on the future of such diseases.

Policy theme(s)

Agriculture >> Agricultural management >> Livestock management
Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Agricultural adaptation
Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Social and health impacts

Keywords

climate change, vector-borne disease transmission, basic reproductive
ratio, emergence, bluetongue, Culicoides

Entry Source:

Selected for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

View this study at:

http://rsif.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/early/2011/06/22/rsif.2011.0255.full.pdf+html
This study is free to view

Contact the study author at:

matthew.baylis@liverpool.ac.uk

Title

Lessons from REDD+ for Agriculture

Reference

CCAFS report no 4

Author(s)

Christine Negra   Eva Wollenberg

Study type

Report

Abstract

Momentum is growing to develop agricultural solutions to climate change, including at the international level. At the Cancun climate conference last month, partners and allies of the new CGIAR research program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) argued that agriculture has major benefits for climate mitigation and adaptation, and must be part of a global climate deal.
Agriculture must be central to climate efforts, particularly in the global South, where most people live in rural areas and are highly dependent on local food production and vulnerable to market fluctuations and changing weather patterns. But how can climate-friendly agriculture move to the forefront of the international climate and development policy agenda? 

In a new analysis published by the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Christine Negra and Eva Wollenberg explore the opportunities for agricultural mitigation in light of key lessons from Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+). Since the first appearance of REDD on the international agenda in 2005, the issue has made significant progress as a policy, as well as on the ground in terms of pilot projects.

They authors argue that REDD+ has successfully progressed due to strong financial leadership by donor countries; clear analysis on technical issues; a shared vision and coordination among and within countries; and early actions on pilot projects to generate lessons.  

The authors suggest that agriculture can evolve on a similar trajectory, and that REDD+ has in fact paved the way for agricultural mitigation. They propose a set of parallel actions detailing how to create the right policy space while also building functional options needed to ensure that farmers on the ground can truly benefit from an agricultural mitigation mechanism.  For example, they call for an authoritative independent review that puts agricultural mitigation into a global context, just as the 2006 Stern Review helped make a strong case for REDD. They also call on technical experts, policy makers and practitioners to develop a common language around agricultural mitigation, as the basis for formulating clear policy options. They also make the case for "learning by doing" by encouraging experimentation with various market incentives that can generate useful lessons for mitigation on the ground, such as payments for environmental services initiatives.

A global mechanism for mitigation that includes agriculture is necessary, and prospects at this early stage are promising. By building on, and adapting the processes that have helped make REDD+ move ahead, agricultural mitigation can progress at the international level and eventually help reduce emissions and help farmers adapt to a changing climate.

Policy theme(s)

Climate change and energy >> Climate change adaptation >> Agricultural adaptation

Keywords

N/A

Entry Source:

Shortlisted for Science for Environment Policy News Alert

Referred to in EC doc:

N/A

View this study at:

http://www.ccafs.cgiar.org/sites/default/files/pdf/ccafs_report_4_web.pdf 
This study is free to view

Contact the study author at:

negra@heinzcenter.org
Lini.wollenberg@uvm.edu