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Baseline Scenario and Integrated Assessment Modelling

 

 

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The baseline scenario in the CAFE programme will enable us to understand how air quality in Europe is likely to evolve between now and 2020 on the basis of current policies and measures. It will help to determine the extent to which air quality problems can be expected to persist in the future and will provide a benchmark against which other policy scenarios can be compared.

The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) with its RAINS Integrated Assessment Model was chosen for this task based on an open call for tender. IIASA will work together with the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET.NO) and the Economics Energy Environment Modelling Laboratory of the National Technical University Athens (NTUA).

Concurrently with the development of the air quality baseline in the CAFE programme, the EEA is developing the air quality (and other) baselines in the State of Environment and Outlook 2005 report. In addition, the Convention on Long Range Transboundary Pollution (CLRTAP) is preparing a baseline for the review of the Gothenburg Protocol that will start after its entry into force.

The RAINS model has been extended to also assess some key pollutants in the urban background in order to improve the health impact assessment. This builds on the basic work of the CITY DELTA launched by the JRC and in cooperation with EMEP, IIASA and EUROTRAC II and specifically of the CITY DELTA II project led by IIASA. The final report of the CITY DELTA II project gives the details on how the methodology of parameterisation of air pollution in the urban background has been performed.

The following document describes how stakeholder consultations will be carried out during the development of the CAFE baseline scenario:

Stakeholders in CAFE baseline scenario (pdf~45K)
Annex 1: Main elements for the construction of the CAFE Baseline scenario (pdf~25K)
Annex 2: Names and contact details (pdf~10K)

In parallel, the Commission is developing the TREMOVE transport model which will analyse, in detail, different options to reduce air pollution from the transport sector. The contractor for the TREMOVE model will be announced after the signature of the contract.

The technical annex for the study are available in the following languages:

en(pdf~60K)  fr(pdf~70K) (pdf~70K)

Two Draft Baseline Scenarios for the CAFE Programme en (pdf~730K)

Baseline Scenarios for the CAFE Programme - Final Report (pdf~3,6Mb) (October 2004)

Energy Baseline Scenarios for the CAFE programme (forhtcoming)

CAFE baseline meetings

Contact information  

For further information, please contact the team responsible for the development of the CAFE baseline and integrated assessment modelling. For general inquiries, please contact:

Duncan JOHNSTONE
Environment DG
Unit ENV.C.1 Clean Air & Transport

 

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