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Revision of the National Emission Ceilings Directive

Cost-Benefit Analysis

The Cost-benefit analysis for the revision of the National Emissions Directive quantifies a variety of health effects associated with exposure to fine particles and ozone from the scenarios, and converts them to monetary values, for each Member State separately and for the EU27 as a whole. The quantification and valuation method used was developed as part of the Clean Air for Europe project, and followed extensive consultation with WHO and other expert groups, Member States, industry and NGOs, as well as independent peer review. Damages to crops and materials have not been estimated in this phase, as the required air quality data have yet to be modelled, but approximate values have been derived based on the previous CAFE CBA analysis. However, given the dominance of health impacts demonstrated in earlier work, it is very unlikely that uncertainty in these estimates has a significant effect on the results. Reduced impacts to ecosystems (freshwater and terrestrial, including forests) are also reported in terms of exceedance of critical loads/levels, drawing directly on the outputs of the GAINS model. These impacts are not reported in monetary values.

The following reports are available (in reversed order):

  • Policy options for revisions to the Gothenburg Protocol to the UNECE Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution

The EU has analysed the cost and benefits of the proposed policy options as discussed under the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol (as reflected in EMEP report no 1/2011). The report has been commissioned to inform the EU and other parties of the Convention on merits and benefits of taking further action to reduce air pollution emissions. Part 1 contains the main findings of the cost benefit analysis and part 2 specific issues related to updates of the methods for health imapct analysis.

The analysis presented in this report takes data on emissions, dispersion and abatement costs from the GAINS model and the optimisation as presented in the IIASA NEC Scenario Analysis report no 7.

The analysis presented in this report takes data on emissions, dispersion and abatement costs from the GAINS model and the optimisation as presented in the IIASA NEC Scenario Analysis Report Nr 6 (pdf~643Kb).

This report presents an assessment of the physical impacts, monetary benefits and a cost-benefit analysis associated with the environmental interim targets established by the European Commission in its Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP). Two different baseline scenarios were used. The analysis took further data on emissions, dispersion and abatement costs from the GAINS model and the optimisation results presented in the IIASA NEC Scenario Analysis Report Nr. 5 (pdf~7,5Mb).

The analysis presented in this report takes data on emissions, dispersion and abatement costs from the GAINS model and the optimisation as presented in the IIASA NEC Scenario Analysis Report Nr 4 (pdf~790Kb).

Impact on Radiative Forcing and Climate Change

Some of the pollutants, and especially particulate matter and ozone, have effects on the radiation balance of the atmosphere and hence potentially on the future climate. Two main effects prevail, cooling by particulate matter with high albedo ("white" sulfate particles) and warming by ozone and dark/black particulate matter (e.g. soot and black carbon). A specific study was set up by JRC IES in cooperation with other leading institutes to have a first order estimate of the effects of changing PM levels for the central scenario (option 2). The methodology includes detailed calculations of the atmospheric concentration changes over the whole of the EMEP domain and off-line radiative transfer calculations. The results of this study show that the implementation of the revised NECD may lead to small positive forcing (warming) on the European scale. Comparison of these results with global climate model calculations indicates that the global scale forcing is almost zero, and the resulting climate response (global temperature change) likely to be in the range below 0.01 degrees C and hence insignificant. The full report is available here (pdf~523Kb).