The International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) provides integrated modeling services in support of the development of the new proposal for the National Emission Ceilings Directive. An essential part in their work is the development of a baseline scenario towards 2020. The baseline scenario includes for each Member State emission control strategies both already implemented and agreed on to be implemented in the coming years. Bilateral consultations between IIASA and Member States over a period of more than two years have resulted in a so called Member States NECD-baseline. This new baseline will replace the CAFE-baseline used for the Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution. The revision of the NECD will be therefore based on the most recent information.
Measures to abate air pollution and measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are related. The revised NECD will focus on emission ceilings in 2020 for which year no post-Kyoto targets are set. For a better understanding of the energy related part of the Member States NECD baseline, DG ENV asked the University of Athens to run the PRIMES-model for a scenario with no, a low and a high carbon constraint. The no carbon constraint scenario is based on a price of 0 € per tonne CO2 in 2020. The low carbon constraint scenario assumes a price of €20 € per tonne CO2 in 2020 in combination with a price of 12€ per tonne in 2012. The high carbon constraint scenario is based on a price of 90 € per tonne CO2 in 2020. Both the low and the high carbon constraint scenario consider a situation with and without Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). The assessment method used in PRIMES is equal for all EU-25 Member States and therefore PRIMES delivers modeling results which are - different from the Member States NECD-baseline - integrated at an EU-wide level.
All baseline scenarios were presented and compared at the 'Conference on Air Pollutant and Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections for 2020'. The blue colored link brings you to the webpage where you can find the programme, presentations and the conclusions of the two chairmen.