The latest data show that the rhythm of economic activity is further accelerating and the recovery in manufacturing industry continues, albeit at a moderating pace. Despite global uncertainty industrial confidence improves, but also shows some signs of a slow down.
Data on manufacturing production for June 2010 show growth of some 8% over the previous year and an improvement of some 2% over the last three months. The growth trend in manufacturing production has been positive since April 2009. However, June 2010 seasonally adjusted output was still some 13% below its former peak in early 2008. It also looks as if sectors affected most negatively in the downfall continue recovering the most rapidly in the present upswing. Moreover, the rebound is now also visible in construction which had experienced a very substantial fall of some 16% from its earlier peak. The latest data and forecasts for tourism indicate that the revival is underway in this sector as well. (...)
Nevertheless some factors still suggest that caution is still warranted about the dynamics of the economic recovery. These include the fragile macroeconomic conditions of the eurozone triggered by the sovereign debt problem, as well as uncertainty about fiscal consolidation, as well as subdued private consumption growth. Moreover, countries that suffered from the bursting of real estate bubbles are coming out of the economic crisis somewhat slower than the countries having suffered from a temporary collapse of manufacturing production.