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A sorted leading indicators dynamic (SLID) factor model for short-run euro-area GDP forecasting - Daniel Grenouilleau
Author(s): Daniel Grenouilleau (Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs)
A sorted leading indicators dynamic (SLID) factor model for short-run euro-area GDP forecasting - Daniel Grenouilleau (585 kB)
This paper introduces a statistical model for short-term GDP forecasting based on approximate dynamic factors, Stock and Watson methodology, extracted from a very large number of leading indicators at several lags. Given that factor extraction is performed on many series from all countries of the euro area, the common component to all predictors reflects the overall business cycle of the euro area and can accordingly provide a good proxy for euro area GDP.
(European Economy. Economic Papers 219. December 2004.
Brussels. 46pp. Tab. Free.)
|ISBN 92-894-8366-0 (online)||
|ISSN 1725-3187 (online)