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Quarterly Report on the Euro Area (QREA), Vol.15, No.1 (2016)

Quarterly Report on the Euro Area (QREA), Vol.15, No.1 (2016)

April 2016

Structural reform measures underway in Italy, France, Spain and Portugal could have significant economic benefits and raise GDP, model simulations presented in this edition of the QREA show. Other chapters in this edition look at the effects of population ageing and slowing total factor productivity growth on GDP, inflation and interest rates; and the drivers of total factor productivity growth.

Topics: Economic policy coordination ; Structural policies, growth and development ; EU Member State economies ; Labour markets

 
Fiscal Reaction Functions for European Union Countries

Fiscal Reaction Functions for European Union Countries

April 2016

This paper looks at how EU Member States adapt their fiscal policies to respond to the challenges of high levels of public debt and weak macro-financial conditions.

Topics: Public finances; EU Member State economies; Economic crisis

Series: Discussion Paper

 
Quarterly Report on the Euro Area (QREA), Vol.14, No.4 (2015)

Quarterly Report on the Euro Area (QREA), Vol.14, No.4 (2015)

January 2016

This edition of the QREA reviews the issue of shocks and adjustment in the light of recent crises. It analyses the functioning of a key internal adjustment process in EMU, the "relative price mechanism", as well as the "real interest rate mechanism". It also reviews the different implications of high levels of indebtedness.

Topics: Economic policy coordination; Structural policies, growth and development; EU Member State economies; Labour markets;

 
Forward to a New Normal: An overview of the ECFIN Fellowship Papers

Forward to a New Normal: An overview of the ECFIN Fellowship Papers

September 2015

Author(s): Karl Pichelmann, Erik Ruscher, Michael Thiel

With a return to pre-crisis economic policies neither possible nor desirable, DG ECFIN asked scholars to map out the ‘new economic normal’. In this Economic Brief, Karl Pichelmann, Eric Ruscher and Michael Thiel of DG ECFIN, provide an overview of the contributions to the DG ECFIN’s 2014-2015 Fellowship Initiative “Growth, integration and structural convergence revisited”.

Topics: Economic policy coordination ; Structural policies, growth and development ; EU Member State economies

Series: Economic Briefs

 
Political Economy of EMU. Rebuilding Systemic Trust in the Euro Area in Times of Crisis

Political Economy of EMU. Rebuilding Systemic Trust in the Euro Area in Times of Crisis

September 2015

Author(s): Felix Roth

Lecture notes revisiting evidence of declining public trust in the euro area and the link with unemployment by Felix Roth (University of Göttingen).

This Discussion Paper was prepared under DG ECFIN’s 2014-2015 Fellowship Initiative “Growth, integration and structural convergence revisited”.

Topics: Economic policy coordination

Series: Discussion Papers

 
The Eurozone’s Crisis of Democratic Legitimacy. Can the EU Rebuild Public Trust and Support for European Economic Integration?

The Eurozone’s Crisis of Democratic Legitimacy. Can the EU Rebuild Public Trust and Support for European Economic Integration?

September 2015

Author(s): Vivien A. Schmidt

A look at issues of democratic legitimacy involving the European Central Bank, Council, Commission, and Parliament by Vivien A. Schmidt (Jean Monnet Professor of European Integration, Director, Center for the Study of Europe).

This Discussion Paper was prepared under DG ECFIN’s 2014-2015 Fellowship Initiative “Growth, integration and structural convergence revisited”.

Topics: Economic policy coordination

Series: Discussion Papers

 
The Centralization-Decentralization Issue

The Centralization-Decentralization Issue

September 2015

Author(s): Charles Wyplosz

Charles Wyplosz (The Graduate Institute, Geneva) applies federalism principles to crucial questions of fiscal policy, fiscal discipline and structural reforms in the EU.

This Discussion Paper was prepared under DG ECFIN’s 2014-2015 Fellowship Initiative “Growth, integration and structural convergence revisited”.

Topics: Economic policy coordination

Series: Discussion Papers

 
Monetary Union and Fiscal and Macroeconomic Governance

Monetary Union and Fiscal and Macroeconomic Governance

September 2015

Author(s): Marek Dabrowski

Marek Dabrowski (CASE Fellow, Center for Social and Economic Research, Warsaw) analyses three questions related to the EU/EMU integration infrastructure: (i) interrelation between monetary and fiscal integration; (ii) interrelation between monetary integration and closer coordination of macroeconomic policies and (iii) fiscal discipline vs. fiscal solidarity.

This Discussion Paper was prepared under DG ECFIN’s 2014-2015 Fellowship Initiative “Growth, integration and structural convergence revisited”.

Topics: Economic policy coordination

Series: Discussion Papers

 
Small Firms and Domestic Bank Dependence in Europe’s Great Recession

Small Firms and Domestic Bank Dependence in Europe’s Great Recession

September 2015

Author(s): Mathias Hoffmann, Bent E. Sorensen

Mathias Hoffmann (University of Zurich & CESifo) and Bent E. Sørensen (University of Houston & CEPR) look at the relationship between the dependency of small firms on domestic banks and their vulnerability to global banking sector shocks.

This Discussion Paper was prepared under DG ECFIN’s 2014-2015 Fellowship Initiative “Growth, integration and structural convergence revisited”.

Topics: Economic policy coordination

Series: Discussion Papers

 
Cross-Border Resolution of Global Banks

Cross-Border Resolution of Global Banks

September 2015

Author(s): Ester Faia, Beatrice Weder di Mauro

How do costs to bondholders compare under different bank resolution regimes? Ester Faia (Goethe Universität Frankfurt and CEPR) and Beatrice Weder di Mauro (Gutenberg Universität Mainz and CEPR) compare the possibilities using a model of optimal design and examine recent case studies. This Discussion Paper was prepared under DG ECFIN’s 2014-2015 Fellowship Initiative “Growth, integration and structural convergence revisited”.

Topics: Economic policy coordination

Series: Discussion Papers

 
The Legacy Debt and the Joint Path of Public Deficit and Debt in the Euro Area

The Legacy Debt and the Joint Path of Public Deficit and Debt in the Euro Area

September 2015

Author(s): Alberto Caruso, Lucrezia Reichlin, Giovanni Ricco

The joint dynamics of public debt and public deficit levels in the euro area between 1981 and 2013 are examined by Alberto Caruso (Université Libre de Bruxelles), Lucrezia Reichlin (London Business School and CEPR) and Giovanni Ricco (University of Warwick) who also compute projections up until 2020. This Discussion Paper was prepared under DG ECFIN’s 2014-2015 Fellowship Initiative “Growth, integration and structural convergence revisited”.

Topics: EU Member State economies, Economic indicators, Public finances

Series: Discussion Papers

 
Monetary Policy, Bank Bailouts and the Sovereign-Bank Risk Nexus in the Euro Area

Monetary Policy, Bank Bailouts and the Sovereign-Bank Risk Nexus in the Euro Area

September 2015

Author(s): Marcel Fratzscher, Malte Rieth

Marcel Fratzscher (DIW Berlin, Humboldt-University Berlin and CEPR) and Malte Rieth (DIW Berlin) analyse the empirical relationship between bank risk and sovereign credit risk in the euro area. This Discussion Paper was prepared under DG ECFIN’s 2014-2015 Fellowship Initiative “Growth, integration and structural convergence revisited”.

Topics: The euro, Monetary policy, Financial markets

Series: Discussion Papers

 
Human Capital, Inequality and Growth

Human Capital, Inequality and Growth

September 2015

Author(s): Torben M Andersen

Income inequality may lead to barriers to education which reduce growth, argues Torben M. Andersen (Aarhus University, CEPR, CESifo and IZA). This Discussion Paper was prepared under DG ECFIN’s 2014-2015 Fellowship Initiative “Growth, integration and structural convergence revisited”.

Topics: Economic policy coordination

Series: Discussion Papers

 
An event-study analysis of ECB balance sheet policies since October 2008

An event-study analysis of ECB balance sheet policies since October 2008

July 2015

Author(s): Lucian Briciu, Giulio Lisi

Since the financial and economic crisis, many leading central banks have had to turn to unconventional monetary policies. This paper analyses the immediate impacts on financial conditions of some of the balance sheet policies used by the European Central Bank between October 2008 and January 2015, including its Securities Markets Programme and its Expanded Asset Purchase Programme.

Topics: Monetary policy; Financial markets; The euro

Series: Economic Briefs

 
552 - Structural unemployment vs. NAWRU: implications for the assessment of the cyclical position and the fiscal stance - Julia Lendvai, Matteo Salto, Anna Thum-Thyser

552 - Structural unemployment vs. NAWRU: implications for the assessment of the cyclical position and the fiscal stance - Julia Lendvai, Matteo Salto, Anna Thum-Thyser

June 2015

Author(s): Julia Lendvai, Matteo Salto, Anna Thum-Thysen

This paper compares trends in the structural unemployment rate and the NAWRU and considers their implications for the assessment of cyclical economic conditions and the fiscal stance.

Topics:  Economic policy coordination ; Public finances ; Economic indicators

Series: Economic Papers

 
551 - When ‘Secular Stagnation’ meets Piketty’s capitalism in the 21st century. Growth and inequality trends in Europe reconsidered - Karl Pichelmann

551 - When ‘Secular Stagnation’ meets Piketty’s capitalism in the 21st century. Growth and inequality trends in Europe reconsidered - Karl Pichelmann

June 2015

Author(s): Karl Pichelmann

Growth and investment in Europe have been stuck in low gear since the crisis while inequality has continued to rise. In light of these facts, this paper examines growth and inequality trends in Europe in the context of secular stagnation theories and Piketty’s theory on growth and inequality.

Topics: Economic policy coordination; Structural policies, growth and development

Series: Economic Papers

 
550 - The stabilising properties of a European Banking Union in case of financial shocks in the Euro Area - Fritz Breuss, Werner Roeger, Jan in ’t Veld

550 - The stabilising properties of a European Banking Union in case of financial shocks in the Euro Area - Fritz Breuss, Werner Roeger, Jan in ’t Veld

June 2015

Author(s): Fritz Breuss, Werner Roeger, Jan in ’t Veld

This paper analyses the stabilising properties of a European Banking Union in case of financial shocks in the euro area.

Topics: Economic policy coordination; Financial markets; The euro; Economic crisis

Series: Economic Papers

 
539 - Labour mobility and labour market adjustment in the EU - Alfonso Arpaia, Aron Kiss, Balazs Palvolgyi, Alessandro Turrini

539 - Labour mobility and labour market adjustment in the EU - Alfonso Arpaia, Aron Kiss, Balazs Palvolgyi, Alessandro Turrini

December 2014

This paper assesses the role of labour mobility in the EU as an adjustment mechanism. It presents stylised facts on mobility and migration at national and sub-national level, analyses the determinants of mobility flows by means of gravity equations, and studies the dynamic response of mobility to asymmetric demand shocks by means of vector auto regression (VAR) analysis in the vein of Blanchard and Katz (1992).

Categories: EU Member State economies ; Labour markets; The euro

Series: Economic Papers

 
538 - The role of survey data in nowcasting euro area GDP growth - Alessandro Girardi, Andreas Reuter and Christian Gayer

538 - The role of survey data in nowcasting euro area GDP growth - Alessandro Girardi, Andreas Reuter and Christian Gayer

December 2014

This paper evaluates the impact of new releases of financial, real activity and survey data on the nowcasting of euro area GDP growth. We show that financial data are only essential for improving nowcasting in the first two months of a nowcast quarter.

Categories: Economic indicators; Forecasts

Series: Economic Papers

 
537 - Structural reforms at the zero bound - Lukas Vogel

537 - Structural reforms at the zero bound - Lukas Vogel

November 2014

This paper uses the European Commission’s QUEST macroeconomic model to analyse the impact of structural reforms on economic activity in an environment in which the zero bound on monetary policy rates is temporarily binding. The simulations suggest that although such reforms can have a negative impact on economic activity in the short run, these effects tend to be small and short-lived when a variety of transmission channels are considered.

Categories: Structural policies, growth and development; EU Member State economies; Economic crisis

Series: Economic Papers

 
527 - Is unemployment structural or cyclical? Main features of job matching in the EU after the crisis - Alfonso Arpaia, Aron Kiss and Alessandro Turrin

527 - Is unemployment structural or cyclical? Main features of job matching in the EU after the crisis - Alfonso Arpaia, Aron Kiss and Alessandro Turrin

September 2014

This economic paper analyses various aspects of labour market matching in Europe and contributes to the study of whether unemployment is mostly cyclical or structural in different member states.

Categories: Structural policies, growth and development; Labour markets; Economic crisis

Series : Economic Papers

 
526 - Evaluating Fiscal Policy: A Rule of Thumb - Nicolas Carnot

526 - Evaluating Fiscal Policy: A Rule of Thumb - Nicolas Carnot

August 2014

This paper introduces a simple rule for appraising the economic soundness of fiscal policies. It connects fiscal policy to a long-run debt objective, taken as an anchor, while arbitraging symmetrically between this debt objective and output stabilisation. The rule offers a benchmark to assess the evolution of primary expenditure, net of the impact of discretionary revenue measures, taken as a proper operational target for annual fiscal policy.

Categories: Economic policy coordination; Public finances; The euro

Series: Economic Papers

 
34 - The Role of Structural Reform for Adjustment and Growth

34 - The Role of Structural Reform for Adjustment and Growth

June 2014

This Economic Brief recapitulates some main insights on the role of structural reform for adjustment and growth in the EU.

Categories: Structural policies, growth and development, Product markets, Labour markets
Series: Economic Briefs

 
33 - Financing the recovery: the state of Europe’s financial sector

33 - Financing the recovery: the state of Europe’s financial sector

June 2014

Following serious setbacks in the recent banking and sovereign debt crisis, European financial markets have started to function more properly again and have stabilised over recent years. Risk taking in financial markets has returned and disparities in financing conditions across euro-area countries diminished. 

Categories: Financial markets; Structural policies, growth and development; economic crisis
Series: Economic Briefs

 
32 - Fragmentation of wholesale funding markets – an empirical approach to measure country-specific risk premia in banks' bond spreads

32 - Fragmentation of wholesale funding markets – an empirical approach to measure country-specific risk premia in banks' bond spreads

May 2014

This paper presents empirical evidence that euro-area wholesale banking markets have become fragmented along national boundaries.

Categories: EU Member State economies, Financial markets
Series: Economic Briefs

 

2013 Report on Public finances in EMU

July 2013

The Report presents recent budgetary developments, describes advances in budgetary surveillance and proposes a new indicator of fiscal effort based on a narrative approach. It also shows the developments of health expenditures and the possibility of introducing cost-containing reforms that preserve high quality standards in the provision of health services.

 

452 - Automatic Fiscal Stabilisers: What they are and what they do. - Jan in 't Veld, Martin Larch, Marieke Vandeweyer

April 2012

This paper analysis the size and effectiveness of automatic fiscal stabilisers.

 

450 - Securities Transaction Taxes: Macroeconomic Implications in a General-Equilibrium Model - Julia Lendvai, Rafal Raciborskiz and Lukas Vogel

March 2012

The paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model with secondary financial market and non-fundamental trade to assess the impact of a securities transaction tax on levels and volatilities of financial and real economic variables.

 

447 - The impact of state guarantees on banks' debt issuing costs, lending and funding policy - Patrice Muller, Shaan Devnani and Rasmus Flytkjaer

January 2012

The effectiveness of state guarantees given to banks in 2008-10 on banks' debt issuing costs, lending and funding policy.

 

Public finances in EMU - 2011

September 2011

The 2011 Report on Public Finances in EMU presents recent budgetary developments, reports developments in budgetary surveillance and proposes various approaches to analyse debt sustainability.the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission.

 

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