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Replacing Judgment by Statistics: Constructing Consumer Confidence Indicators on the Basis of Data-driven Techniques

Replacing Judgment by Statistics: Constructing Consumer Confidence Indicators on the Basis of Data-driven Techniques

July 2016

This paper compares the performance of the European Commission's Consumer Confidence Indicator with alternatives based on broader sets of data and more complex statistical methods.

Topics: Forecasts ; Economic indicators

Series: Discussion Papers

 
State-Owned Enterprises in the EU: Lessons Learnt and Ways Forward in a Post-Crisis Context

State-Owned Enterprises in the EU: Lessons Learnt and Ways Forward in a Post-Crisis Context

July 2016

A look at state-owned enterprises in the EU; their importance, financial performance, implications for public finances, and potential for reform.

Topics: Public finances ; Structural policies, growth and development ; Product markets

Series: Institutional Papers

 
Fiscal Consolidation in Ireland: Recent Successes and Remaining Challenges

Fiscal Consolidation in Ireland: Recent Successes and Remaining Challenges

May 2016

A look at the success of Ireland’s recent fiscal consolidation efforts and remaining fiscal policy challenges.

Topics: Economic policy coordination, Public finances, EU Member States economies

Series: Economic Briefs

 
Fiscal Reaction Functions for European Union Countries

Fiscal Reaction Functions for European Union Countries

April 2016

This paper looks at how EU Member States adapt their fiscal policies to respond to the challenges of high levels of public debt and weak macro-financial conditions.

Topics: Public finances; EU Member State economies; Economic crisis

Series: Discussion Paper

 
Expenditure-based Consolidation: Experiences and Outcomes – Workshop proceedings

Expenditure-based Consolidation: Experiences and Outcomes – Workshop proceedings

March 2016

Proceedings of a workshop about the experiences of Member States with expenditure-based fiscal consolidation, organised by the European Commission’s Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs in Brussels on 20 January 2015.

Topics: Public finances

Series: Discussion Paper

 
Political Economy of Tax Reforms – Workshop proceedings

Political Economy of Tax Reforms – Workshop proceedings

March 2016

Proceedings of a workshop on the political economy of tax reforms, hosted by the European Commission’s Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs in Brussels on 19 October 2015.

Topics: Public finances, EU Member State economies

Series: Discussion Paper

 
Post-Programme Surveillance Report - Ireland, Autumn 2015

Post-Programme Surveillance Report - Ireland, Autumn 2015

January 2016

This report by the European Commission presents the findings of the fourth post-programme surveillance mission to Ireland and identifies remaining challenges for the Irish economy.

Topics: EU Member State economies ; Public finances ; Structural policies, growth and development

Series: Institutional Papers

 
Report on Public Finances in EMU 2015

Report on Public Finances in EMU 2015

December 2015

The European Commission’s annual Report on Public Finances in the EMU provides an overview of key policy developments and analytical findings  in this area. The report describes recent development with deficits and debt, underlining  the need to achieve a balance between short-term stability  and long-term sustainability of public finances. The focus  this year  is the challenge that low-inflation poses to fiscal policy.

Topics: Economic policy coordination ; Public finances ; The euro

Categories: Institutional Papers

 
The Impact of Rapid Credit Growth on Slovakia’s Housing Market

The Impact of Rapid Credit Growth on Slovakia’s Housing Market

December 2015

This paper looks at the macroeconomic impact of the growth in lending for home purchases in Slovakia and suggests policies that could make the housing market more resilient.

Topics: Structural policies, growth and development, EU Member State economies, Public finances, Financial markets

Series: Economic Briefs

 
The Maghreb: Macroeconomic Performance, Reform Challenges and Integration with the EU

The Maghreb: Macroeconomic Performance, Reform Challenges and Integration with the EU

December 2015

A look at the economic situation in Algeria, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia four years after the Arab Spring and the relationship of these countries with the EU.

Topics: International economics and non-EU economies; Structural policies, growth and development; Public finances

Series: Economic Briefs

 
Medium-Term Budgetary Frameworks in the EU Member States

Medium-Term Budgetary Frameworks in the EU Member States

December 2015

This study discusses various features characterising the Medium-Term Budgetary Frameworks applied in the EU Member States.

Topics: Public finances

Series: Discussion Paper

 
An assessment of the relative quality of the Output Gap estimates produced by the EU's Production Function Methodology

An assessment of the relative quality of the Output Gap estimates produced by the EU's Production Function Methodology

December 2015

This paper assesses the performance of the EU’s production function methodology for estimating output gaps.

Topics: Public finances ; Economic policy coordination ; Structural policies, growth and development

Series: Discussion Paper

 
Cross-border flows operated through the EU budget: an overview

Cross-border flows operated through the EU budget: an overview

December 2015

This paper provides an overview of revenues, expenditures and cross-border fiscal flows operated through the EU budget.

Topics: Public finances ; International economics and non-EU economies ; The euro

Series: Discussion Paper

 
Using financial variables to estimate the Irish output gap: do they make a difference?

Using financial variables to estimate the Irish output gap: do they make a difference?

December 2015

Standard potential output estimates during Ireland’s housing boom failed to detect the build-up of imbalances and risks to the country’s public finances. This paper looks at an alternative methodology, including financial variables such as property prices and bank credit, which would have supported a more cautious assessment at the time.

Topics: Public finances ; EU Member State economies ; Financial markets

Series: Economic Briefs

 
Tax Revenue Elasticities Corrected for Policy Changes in the EU

Tax Revenue Elasticities Corrected for Policy Changes in the EU

November 2015

This paper investigates how tax revenue elasticities develop with respect to their tax base and analyses the specific impact of the business cycle.

Topics: Public finances

Series: Discussion Paper

 
Wage dynamics in Croatia: leaders and followers

Wage dynamics in Croatia: leaders and followers

October 2015

Author(s): Kristian Orsini, Vukašin Ostojić

This paper analyses wage dynamics in Croatia’s economy and finds evidence that rising wages in the fast-growing public education and health sectors may be setting the pace.

Topics: Public finances ; Labour markets ; Economic crisis

Series: Economic Briefs

 
The Economic Adjustment Programme for Cyprus – 7th Review Summer 2015

The Economic Adjustment Programme for Cyprus – 7th Review Summer 2015

October 2015

This report assesses Cyprus’ compliance with the terms and conditions of its economic adjustment programme.

Topics: Structural policies, growth and development ; Financial assistance programmes ; EU Member State economies ; Public finances ; Economic crisis

Series: Institutional Papers

 
Tax reforms in EU Member States 2015 – Tax policy challenges for economic growth and fiscal sustainability

Tax reforms in EU Member States 2015 – Tax policy challenges for economic growth and fiscal sustainability

September 2015

Author(s): Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs (ECFIN) and Directorate General for Taxation and Customs Union (TAXUD), European Commission

This annual report, prepared by the European Commission’s Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs and the Directorate General for Taxation and Customs Union, aims to make a contribution to discussions on tax policy in the EU through an analysis of tax policy challenges and recent reforms in the EU Member States.

Topics: Public finances; Economic policy coordination; Structural policies, growth and development

Series: Institutional Papers

 
The Legacy Debt and the Joint Path of Public Deficit and Debt in the Euro Area

The Legacy Debt and the Joint Path of Public Deficit and Debt in the Euro Area

September 2015

Author(s): Alberto Caruso, Lucrezia Reichlin, Giovanni Ricco

The joint dynamics of public debt and public deficit levels in the euro area between 1981 and 2013 are examined by Alberto Caruso (Université Libre de Bruxelles), Lucrezia Reichlin (London Business School and CEPR) and Giovanni Ricco (University of Warwick) who also compute projections up until 2020. This Discussion Paper was prepared under DG ECFIN’s 2014-2015 Fellowship Initiative “Growth, integration and structural convergence revisited”.

Topics: EU Member State economies, Economic indicators, Public finances

Series: Discussion Papers

 
Taxing Wealth: Past, Present, Future - Workshop Proceedings

Taxing Wealth: Past, Present, Future - Workshop Proceedings

July 2015

Author(s): Edited by Caterina Astarita

With rising inequalities and during a time of fiscal consolidation, the debate on wealth taxation is gaining momentum both in academic and in policy debates. A workshop was organised on the topic by the European Commission in November 2014. Participants included members of academia, national authorities and international organisations. The purpose of the workshop was to look at the challenges of wealth taxation in the EU. In this publication you will find a summary of the discussions during this workshop.

Topics: Public finances

Series: Discussion Papers

 
The Economic Adjustment Programme. Cyprus, 6th Review – Spring 2015

The Economic Adjustment Programme. Cyprus, 6th Review – Spring 2015

July 2015

This report, the sixth of its type, assesses compliance with the terms and conditions set out in the Economic Adjustment Programme for Cyprus, as agreed between the Cypriot authorities and the EC, the ECB and the IMF in 2013.

Topics: Structural policies, growth and development; Financial assistance programmes; EU Member State economies; Public finances; Economic crisis

Series: Institutional Papers

 
Post-Programme Surveillance Report. Ireland, Spring 2015

Post-Programme Surveillance Report. Ireland, Spring 2015

July 2015

European Commission officials, in liaison with the ECB, visited Ireland between April and May 2015 for the third review of Ireland's economic situation. This report looks at the progress that has been made in Ireland since the conclusion of the country’s EU Financial Assistance Programme in 2013. It summarises the main findings of the Third EU Post-Programme Review of Ireland’s Economic Situation and outlines the remaining challenges confronting Ireland.

Topics: Financial assistance programmes; Structural policies, growth and development; Public finances

 
The 2015 Stability and Convergence Programmes: an overview

The 2015 Stability and Convergence Programmes: an overview

July 2015

This report provides an overview of the Stability Programmes and Convergence Programmes presented by Member States in 2015.

Topics: Economic policy coordination; Public finances

Series: Institutional Papers

 
552 - Structural unemployment vs. NAWRU: implications for the assessment of the cyclical position and the fiscal stance - Julia Lendvai, Matteo Salto, Anna Thum-Thyser

552 - Structural unemployment vs. NAWRU: implications for the assessment of the cyclical position and the fiscal stance - Julia Lendvai, Matteo Salto, Anna Thum-Thyser

June 2015

Author(s): Julia Lendvai, Matteo Salto, Anna Thum-Thysen

This paper compares trends in the structural unemployment rate and the NAWRU and considers their implications for the assessment of cyclical economic conditions and the fiscal stance.

Topics:  Economic policy coordination ; Public finances ; Economic indicators

Series: Economic Papers

 
2015 Economic Reform Programmes (Part I) of Candidate and Potential Candidate Countries

2015 Economic Reform Programmes (Part I) of Candidate and Potential Candidate Countries

June 2015

Author(s): European Commission

This report contains the Commission's assessments of the 2015 Economic Reform Programmes (ERP) of countries that are candidates or potential candidates for EU membership.

Topics : Economic policy coordination; Public finances; Enlargement;

Series : Occasional Papers

 
549 - Efficiency estimates of health care systems - João Medeiros, Christoph Schwierz

549 - Efficiency estimates of health care systems - João Medeiros, Christoph Schwierz

June 2015

Author(s): João Medeiros, Christoph Schwierz

Health care spending has been rising faster than national income throughout the EU for decades and is projected to continue doing so as a result of population ageing. However, this paper estimates that there is substantial scope to improve the efficiency of Europe's health care systems and that this could halt the rise in health care expenditure as a proportion of GDP over the long term.

Categories: Economic indicators ; Structural policies, growth and development ; Public finances

Series: Economic Papers

 
548 - Banking Stress Scenarios for Public Debt Projections - Peter Benczur, Katia Berti, Jessica Cariboni, Francesca Erica Di Girolamo, Sven Langedijk, Andrea Pagano and Marco Petracco Giudici

548 - Banking Stress Scenarios for Public Debt Projections - Peter Benczur, Katia Berti, Jessica Cariboni, Francesca Erica Di Girolamo, Sven Langedijk, Andrea Pagano and Marco Petracco Giudici

April 2015

Author(s):  Peter Benczur, Katia Berti, Jessica Cariboni, Francesca Erica Di Girolamo, Sven Langedijk, Andrea Pagano, Marco Petracco Giudici

The euro area sovereign debt crisis brought to light the potential risks to public finances posed by the banking sector. This paper simulates the potential impact of bank defaults on public finances based on stress test scenarios using an advance analytical methodology.

Categories: Economic crisis ; Financial markets ; Public finances

Series: Economic Papers

 
Emigration of the less-skilled: the role of incentives to work in Estonia

Emigration of the less-skilled: the role of incentives to work in Estonia

March 2015

Author(s): Jorge Durán, Baudouin Lamine, Erki Lõhmuste, Anneleen Vandeplas

Every year thousands of Estonians, most of them young with low or medium-level skills, leave Estonia to find better paid work abroad. Given Estonia’s small population and low birth rate, this significant loss of workers exacerbates the challenges posed by the ageing of its population. This paper evaluates policy options to help combat this trend by making local jobs more attractive.

Topics: Public finances ; Labour markets ; Economic crisis

Series: Country Focus

 
Measuring Fossil Fuel Subsidies

Measuring Fossil Fuel Subsidies

March 2015

Author(s): Ambrus Bárány and Dalia Grigonytė

The fall in energy prices has opened a window of opportunity for governments in both developed and developing countries to reform subsidy schemes for fossil fuels, which worldwide cost an estimated USD 1.9 trillion a year. Careful reforms would not only strengthen public finances but reduce economic distortions and help lower C02 emissions. This Economic Brief aims to shed some light on the true magnitude and allocation of fossil fuel subsidies so as to enable comparisons between countries and regions.

Topics: Public finances ; International economics and non-EU economies

Series: Economic Briefs

 
546 - Income insurance: a theoretical exercise with empirical application for the euro area - Nicolas Carnot, Phil Evans, Serena Fatica, Gilles Mourre

546 - Income insurance: a theoretical exercise with empirical application for the euro area - Nicolas Carnot, Phil Evans, Serena Fatica, Gilles Mourre

March 2015

Author(s): Nicolas Carnot, Phil Evans, Serena Fatica, Gilles Mourre

The recent crisis has shown how economic shocks can lead to considerable and persistent cyclical divergences in the euro area. Successful monetary unions have generally been backed by fiscal arrangements providing income insurance against shocks. This paper reviews the potential issues, the underlying trade-offs and the necessary theoretical conditions to make an income insurance scheme workable, and provides an empirical application for the euro area.

Categories: Economic policy coordination ; Public finances ; The euro

 
545 - The fiscal effects of work-related tax expenditures in Europe - Salvador Barrios, Serena Fatica, Diego Martinez, Gilles Mourre

545 - The fiscal effects of work-related tax expenditures in Europe - Salvador Barrios, Serena Fatica, Diego Martinez, Gilles Mourre

February 2015

Author(s): Salvador Barrios, Serena Fatica, Diego Martinez, Gilles Mourre

The paper assesses the fiscal impacts of marginal reforms to work-related tax expenditures in five EU countries.

Categories: Public finances Structural policies, growth and development; Labour markets 

Series: Economic Papers

 
543 - The discretionary fiscal effort: an assessment of fiscal policy and its output effect - Nicolas Carnot and Franciso de Castro

543 - The discretionary fiscal effort: an assessment of fiscal policy and its output effect - Nicolas Carnot and Franciso de Castro

February 2015

Author(s): Nicolas Carnot, Franciso de Castro

Economic paper presenting an indicator of fiscal policy effort and estimates of fiscal multipliers

Categories: Economic policy coordination; the euro; Public finances

Series: Economic Papers

 
Post-Programme Surveillance Report. Ireland, Autumn 2014

Post-Programme Surveillance Report. Ireland, Autumn 2014

January 2015

Author(s): European Commission

Report on the second post-programme surveillance review for Ireland, and on recent economic developments and outlook for Ireland.

European Commission and European Central Bank officials visited Ireland between 17 and 21 November 2014 for the second review of Ireland’s economic situation since the conclusion of the country’s EU Financial Assistance Programme in December 2013.

Topics : Structural policies, growth and development; EU Member State economies; Public finances;

Series : Occasional Papers

 
542 - Fiscal Devaluation: Efficiency and Equity - Matthias Burgert, Werner Roeger

542 - Fiscal Devaluation: Efficiency and Equity - Matthias Burgert, Werner Roeger

December 2014

This paper presents a quantitative model-based assessment of the potential impact of structural reforms in the EU Member States. By comparing structural indicators of labour and product markets, a gap is defined for each indicator relative to the 3 best performers. Scenarios are then simulated in which half the gap vis-à-vis best performance is closed, to avoid setting unrealistic and/or unattainable targets.

Categories: Structural policies, growth and development; Labour markets; Public finances

Series: Economic Papers

 
The Economic Adjustment Programme for Cyprus – Fifth Review Summer 2014

The Economic Adjustment Programme for Cyprus – Fifth Review Summer 2014

December 2014

The report assesses compliance with the terms and conditions set out in the MoU as agreed at staff level on 2 April 2013 with the Cypriot authorities.

Author(s): European Commission

Categories : Structural policies, growth and development; Financial assistance programmes; EU Member State economies; Public finances; Economic crisis

Series : Occasional Papers

 
Tax expenditures in direct taxation in EU Member States

Tax expenditures in direct taxation in EU Member States

December 2014

Tax expenditures allow certain groups of taxpayers to reduce their tax burden and, therefore, lead to revenue losses for the government. EU Member States make ample use of tax expenditures with a wide variety of aims including employment creation, innovation, education, entrepreneurship, home ownership and income redistribution.

Author(s): A. Kalyva, C. Astarita, L. Bauger, S. Fatica, G. Mourre and F. Wöhlbier

Categories : Public finances

Series : Occasional Papers

 
Public Finances in EMU - 2014

Public Finances in EMU - 2014

December 2014

This annual report presents a review of key policy developments and analytical findings in the area of public finances.

Categories : Economic Policy Coordination; Public Finances; The Euro

Series : European Economy

 
13 - The Belgian VAT rate structure in need of reform

13 - The Belgian VAT rate structure in need of reform

December 2014

This Country Focus assesses the VAT rate structure in Belgium and identifies channels for potential efficiency and revenue gains.

Categories: Public finances

Series: Country Focus

 
536 - Adjusting the budget balance for the business cycle: the EU methodology - Gilles Mourre, Caterina Astarita and Savina Princer

536 - Adjusting the budget balance for the business cycle: the EU methodology - Gilles Mourre, Caterina Astarita and Savina Princer

November 2014

The cyclically-adjusted budget balance (CAB) is the backbone of the EU framework of fiscal surveillance, both in its preventive and corrective arms. The concept corresponds to the budget balance prevailing if the economy was running at potential. After correcting for the one-off and temporary measures, it is called structural budget balance and used to assess the fiscal policy stance. This paper presents the EU methodology for computing the CAB and derives the new value of the budgetary semi-elasticities following the recent revision of individual revenue and expenditure elasticities by the OECD.

Categories: Public financesEconomic policy coordination

Series: Economic Papers

 
11 - Do the Baltic States need to tax passenger cars more

11 - Do the Baltic States need to tax passenger cars more

November 2014

Energy and carbon intensities in the Baltics are among the highest in the EU, in particular in transport.

Categories: Structural policies, growth and development; Public finances

Series: Country Focus

 
535 - The Production Function Methodology for Calculating Potential Growth Rates & Output Gaps - Havik, Mc Morrow, Orlandi, Planas, Raciborski, Roeger, Rossi, Thum-Thysen, Vandermeulen

535 - The Production Function Methodology for Calculating Potential Growth Rates & Output Gaps - Havik, Mc Morrow, Orlandi, Planas, Raciborski, Roeger, Rossi, Thum-Thysen, Vandermeulen

November 2014

This paper provides a detailed description of the current version of the Ecofin Council approved production function (PF) methodology which is used for assessing both the productive capacity (i.e. potential output) and cyclical position (i.e. output gaps) of EU economies. Compared with the previous 2010 paper on the same topic, there have been two significant changes to the PF methodology, namely an overhaul of the NAWRU methodology & the introduction of a new T+10 methodology.

Categories: Economic policy coordination; Public finances; Structural policies, growth and development

Series: Economic Papers

 
The 2015 Ageing Report: Underlying Assumptions and Projection Methodologies

The 2015 Ageing Report: Underlying Assumptions and Projection Methodologies

November 2014

In 2012, the ECOFIN Council asked the Economic Policy Committee (EPC) to update its age-related expenditure projections by the autumn of 2014, to take into account new population projections by Eurostat.

Categories :Public finances; Structural policies, growth and development; Economic indicators

Series: European Economy

 
Tax reforms in EU Member States 2014 - Tax policy challenges for economic growth and fiscal sustainability

Tax reforms in EU Member States 2014 - Tax policy challenges for economic growth and fiscal sustainability

October 2014

Tax reforms in EU Member States to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of tax systems can contribute to the stability of public finances; boost economic growth, employment and competitiveness; and improve social fairness.

Categories: Public finances ; Economic policy coordination ; Structural policies, growth and development

Series: European Economy

 
201 - Identifying fiscal sustainability challenges in the areas of pension, health care and long-term care policies

201 - Identifying fiscal sustainability challenges in the areas of pension, health care and long-term care policies

October 2014

This paper presents a horizontal assessment framework used by the Commission services to identify structural-fiscal reforms that are deemed necessary to address fiscal sustainability challenges in the Member States.

Categories: Economic policy coordination ; Public finances; Structural policies, growth and development

Series : Occasional Papers

 
200 - Assessing Public Debt Sustainability in EU Member States: A Guide

200 - Assessing Public Debt Sustainability in EU Member States: A Guide

September 2014

Analysing recent and prospective public debt developments and risks to debt sustainability is crucial for EA countries and the EU as a whole to be able to formulate appropriate policy responses. To this aim, the Commission services (Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs) conduct, on a regular basis, detailed public debt sustainability analysis.

Categories: Public finances; EU Member State economies; Forecasts

Serie: Occasional Papers

 
526 - Evaluating Fiscal Policy: A Rule of Thumb - Nicolas Carnot

526 - Evaluating Fiscal Policy: A Rule of Thumb - Nicolas Carnot

August 2014

This paper introduces a simple rule for appraising the economic soundness of fiscal policies. It connects fiscal policy to a long-run debt objective, taken as an anchor, while arbitraging symmetrically between this debt objective and output stabilisation. The rule offers a benchmark to assess the evolution of primary expenditure, net of the impact of discretionary revenue measures, taken as a proper operational target for annual fiscal policy.

Categories: Economic policy coordination; Public finances; The euro

Series: Economic Papers

 
525 - Public Spending Reviews: design, conduct, implementation - Caroline Vandierendonck

525 - Public Spending Reviews: design, conduct, implementation - Caroline Vandierendonck

July 2014

Public expenditure accounts for almost half of the annual wealth created in the EU (49.0% of GDP in 2013). A major policy lesson stemming from the crisis is the need to enhance expenditure performance, which can be defined as the reinforced connection between funding decisions and policy priorities (shall this policy be funded with public money?) and subsequently between funding levels and results delivered to end-users (what is the value for public money?).

Categories: Economic policy coordination; Public finances

Series: Economic Papers

 
524 - Future Directions for the Irish Economy. Conference Proceedings - Graham Stull

524 - Future Directions for the Irish Economy. Conference Proceedings - Graham Stull

July 2014

Ireland's successful conclusion of the financial assistance programme provides an important opportunity to assess the prospects of the Irish economy to achieve good growth, to prevent future banking crises and to lock in budgetary and fiscal improvements that were achieved over the course of the Programme.

Categories: EU Member State economies; Public finances; Financial markets

Series: Economic Papers

 
523 - The use of tax expenditures in times of fiscal consolidation - Lovise Bauger

523 - The use of tax expenditures in times of fiscal consolidation - Lovise Bauger

July 2014

Against the background of recovering growth and remaining fiscal consolidation needs, reforming tax expenditures may offer a promising avenue to raise revenue and, at the same time, improve efficiency of the tax systems. The workshop, held by DG ECFIN on 23 October 2013, addressed the economic and budgetary aspects of tax expenditures, including reporting practices, and discussed the rationale for business tax incentives and the distributional effects of tax reliefs in personal income taxation.

Categories: Public finances

Series: Economic Papers

 
199 - The 2014 Stability and Convergence Programmes: An Overview

199 - The 2014 Stability and Convergence Programmes: An Overview

July 2014

This paper provides an overview of Member States' 2014 Stability and Convergence Programmes (SCPs), with a focus on fiscal consolidation plans over 2013-2017. 

Categories: Economic policy coordination; Public finances

Series: Occasional Papers

 
198 - 2014 Economic and Fiscal Programmes of Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina: The Commission's country assessments

198 - 2014 Economic and Fiscal Programmes of Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina: The Commission's country assessments

July 2014

The document contains the Commission's assessments of the 2014 Economic and Fiscal Programme (EFP) of the potential candidate countries (Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina). EFPs outline a medium-term policy framework, including public finance objectives and structural reform priorities.

Categories: Public finances; International economics and non-EU economies; Enlargement

Series: Occasional Papers

 
197 - The Economic Adjustment Programme for Cyprus – Fourth Review - Spring 2014

197 - The Economic Adjustment Programme for Cyprus – Fourth Review - Spring 2014

July 2014

Following a request by Cyprus on 25 June 2012, the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund finally agreed an economic adjustment programme with the Cypriot authorities on 2 April 2013.

Categories: Structural policies, growth and development; Public finances; EU Member State economies; Financial assistance programmes; Economic crisis

Series: Occasional Papers

 
195 - Post-Programme Surveillance for Ireland — Spring 2014 Report

195 - Post-Programme Surveillance for Ireland — Spring 2014 Report

June 2014

Staff from the European Commission (EC), in liaison with the ECB, undertook the first post-programme surveillance (PPS) review for Ireland from 29 April to 2 May 2014. The mission was coordinated with the IMF's post-programme monitoring mission. The mission found that the positive trends of economic adjustment observed during the EU-IMF financial assistance programme have continued against the backdrop of an improving external environment and buoyant international financial markets.

Categories: Public finances; Structural policies, growth and development; EU Member State economies
Series: Occasional Papers

 
519 - International Capital Flows and the Boom-Bust Cycle in Spain - Jan in ‘t Veld, Robert Kollmann, Beatrice Pataracchia, Marco Ratto, Werner Roeger

519 - International Capital Flows and the Boom-Bust Cycle in Spain - Jan in ‘t Veld, Robert Kollmann, Beatrice Pataracchia, Marco Ratto, Werner Roeger

June 2014

We study the joint dynamics of foreign capital flows and real activity during the recent boom-bust cycle of the Spanish economy, using a three-country New Keynesian model with credit-constrained households and firms, a construction sector and a government. We estimate the model using 1995Q1-2013Q2 data for Spain, the rest of the Euro Area (REA) and the rest of the world.

Categories : Structural policies, growth and development; EU Member State economies; Financial markets
Series : Economic Papers

 
31 - Poverty developments in the EU after the crisis: a look at main drivers

31 - Poverty developments in the EU after the crisis: a look at main drivers

May 2014

Poverty increases were recorded mostly in terms of severe material deprivation and low work intensity rates starting from 2010 and were concentrated in those countries most severely hit by the crisis.

 
192 - The Second Economic Adjustment Programme for Greece. Fourth Review

192 - The Second Economic Adjustment Programme for Greece. Fourth Review

April 2014

This report provides an assessment of the progress made by Greece with respect to its Second Economic Adjustment Programme, based on the findings of a four-part joint Commission/ECB/IMF mission to Athens between 16-29 September 2013, 28 October-8 November 2013, 2-15 December 2013 and 24 February-17 March 2014. The report examines current macroeconomic, financial and fiscal developments and assesses compliance with programme conditionality.

 
191 - The Economic Adjustment Programme for Portugal - Eleventh Review

191 - The Economic Adjustment Programme for Portugal - Eleventh Review

April 2014

The report assesses compliance with the terms and conditions set out in the Memorandum of Understanding as updated following the Tenth Review of the Portuguese Economic Adjustment Programme. The assessment is based on the findings of a joint European Commission (EC)/European Central Bank (ECB)/International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff mission to Lisbon between 20 February and 28 February 2014. The mission concluded that the programme implementation is broadly on track. The 2013 budget deficit was 4.9 percent of GDP, significantly below the Programme target of 5.5 percent of GDP.

 
516 - What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU member states? - Robert Kollmann, Marco Ratto, Werner Roeger, Jan in’t Veld, Lukas Vogell

516 - What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU member states? - Robert Kollmann, Marco Ratto, Werner Roeger, Jan in’t Veld, Lukas Vogell

April 2014

We estimate a three-country model using 1995-2013 data for Germany, the Rest of the Euro Area (REA) and the Rest of the World (ROW) to analyze the determinants of Germany’s current account surplus after the launch of the Euro. The most important factors driving the German surplus were positive shocks to the German saving rate and to ROW demand for German exports, as well as German labour market reforms and other positive German aggregate supply shocks.

 

Tax reforms in EU Member States 2013 - Tax policy challenges for economic growth and fiscal sustainability

September 2013

The report is prepared jointly by the European Commission’s Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN) and Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union (DG TAXUD). The report analyses recent tax reforms in EU Member States and identifies tax policy challenges faced by EU Member States.

 

2013 Report on Public finances in EMU

July 2013

The Report presents recent budgetary developments, describes advances in budgetary surveillance and proposes a new indicator of fiscal effort based on a narrative approach. It also shows the developments of health expenditures and the possibility of introducing cost-containing reforms that preserve high quality standards in the provision of health services.

 

23 - The composition of fiscal adjustments: some principles

May 2013

The composition of fiscal adjustments

 

22 - The future of EMU

April 2013

Summarising the findings of DG ECFIN's fellowship programme on the future of EMU

 

Tax reforms in EU Member States 2012 - Tax policy challenges for economic growth and fiscal sustainability

October 2012

The report is prepared jointly by DG ECFIN and DG TAXUD of the European Commission. As the previous editions, the report analyses recent trends in tax revenues and tax reforms in EU Member States. This year's report particularly focuses on the analysis of the EU VAT system and on the identification of tax policy challenges faced by EU Member States.

 

2012 Report on Public finances in EMU

July 2012

The 2012 Report on Public Finances in EMU presents recent budgetary developments, reports developments in budgetary surveillance, proposes an analysis of the effect of fiscal multipliers on the possibility of self-defeating fiscal consolidations and shows the relevance of fiscal frameworks for budgetary outcomes at the sub-national level in the EU.

 

458 - Imbalances and rebalancing scenarios in an estimated structural model for Spain - Jan in 't Veld, Andrea Pagano, Rafal Raciborski, Marco Ratto, Werner Roeger

July 2012

This paper uses an estimated DSGE model to analyse the factors behind the build-up of imbalances in the Spanish economy

 

452 - Automatic Fiscal Stabilisers: What they are and what they do. - Jan in 't Veld, Martin Larch, Marieke Vandeweyer

April 2012

This paper analysis the size and effectiveness of automatic fiscal stabilisers.

 

450 - Securities Transaction Taxes: Macroeconomic Implications in a General-Equilibrium Model - Julia Lendvai, Rafal Raciborskiz and Lukas Vogel

March 2012

The paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model with secondary financial market and non-fundamental trade to assess the impact of a securities transaction tax on levels and volatilities of financial and real economic variables.

 

91 - Fiscal frameworks across Member States: Commission services country fiches from the 2011 EPC peer review

February 2012

This Occasional Paper gathers country fiches from Commission services describing and analysing fiscal frameworks of EU Member States in the context of the 2011 EPC peer review

 

Public finances in EMU - 2011

September 2011

The 2011 Report on Public Finances in EMU presents recent budgetary developments, reports developments in budgetary surveillance and proposes various approaches to analyse debt sustainability.the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs of the European Commission.

 

81 - 2011 Economic and Fiscal Programmes of potential candidate countries: EU Commission's assessments

June 2011

30/6/2011

The document contains the EU Commission's assessments of the 2011 Economic and Fiscal Programme (EFP) of the currently 3 potential candidate countries

The document contains the EU Commission's assessments of the 2011 Economic and Fiscal Programmes of the currently 4 potential candidate countries: Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia. The programmes are precursors of similar programmes, which EU Member States are supposed to submit. They should present a short description of recent economic developments, a medium macroeconomic framework, a chapter presenting the medium-term fiscal programme and an overview of intended structural reforms. The EU Commission assesses, whether the documents respect the required format and information and whether the programme is plausible and in line with the country's accession perspective.

 

European Economic Forecast - Spring 2011

May 2011

The European Commission publishes comprehensive macroeconomic forecasts twice-yearly in the spring and autumn. These are presented in the publication titled ‘European Economic Forecast’ (EEF), where the Commission discusses the economic situation and outlook for the euro area and the EU, its 27 Member States, the Candidate Countries as well as the EU’s main economic partners. The publication also includes thematic chapters which elaborate in greater detail on issues of relevance for the EU outlook.

The global economic recovery continues to make headway, but it is becoming more uneven, across major regions and within them. In the EU, the moderate economic recovery is generally developing as expected, with pronounced differences across countries and uncertainty at elevated levels. A positive contribution from the external side has started to impact positively on components of private domestic demand. The process of achieving a more balanced composi

 

Public finances in EMU - 2002

January 2002

This is the third report dedicated to Public finances in EMU. In addition to reviewing Member States’ budgetary performance in 2001 and assessing the short and medium-term prospects, it contains an examination of some of the questions in the fast evolving debate on budgetary policy at EU level, with a particular emphasis on EMU.

  • Part I reviews current developments and short-term budgetary prospects, as well as the medium-term plans set down in the latest stability and convergence programmes (submitted in late 2001 or early 2002). It is based on the Spring 2002 forecast of the European Commission.
  • Part II examines four aspects of the evolving framework for budgetary surveillance at EU level. They are the revised Code of Conduct on the content and presentation of stability and convergence programmes, the early warning mechani
 

Public finances in EMU - 2001

January 2001

This is the second report on Public finances in EMU prepared by the Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs. It is part of ongoing efforts by the Commission to upgrade analysis on fiscal policies in EMU. In addition, the report aims at contributing to the public debate on the budgetary policies, which needs to be broadened from its current focus on stability to include the contribution which public finances can make to growth and employment. 

  • Part I  reviews the budgetary outlook and prospects for the euro area and its implications for the policy mix. It also gives an aggregate overview of the medium-term budget positions implied by the programmes.
  • Part II examines how the framework for budgetary surveillance at EU level is evolving. It also assesses the interactions of EU surveillance with national budgeta
 

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