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House Prices and Indebtedness in Sweden: a Model-based Assessment  of Policy Options

House Prices and Indebtedness in Sweden: a Model-based Assessment of Policy Options

December 2016

An economic modelling of potential policy options for the issue of high house prices and indebtedness in Sweden.

Topics: Public finances; Structural policies, growth and development; EU Member State economies; Financial markets

Series: Economic Briefs

 
What Makes a Good ʽBad Bankʼ? The Irish, Spanish and German Experience

What Makes a Good ʽBad Bankʼ? The Irish, Spanish and German Experience

September 2016

This paper looks at the ‘bad banks’ set up to deal with non-performing loans in Ireland, Spain and Germany as well as the factors required to make such asset management companies achieve their objectives.

Topics: Public financesEU Member State economies; Financial marketsEconomic crisis

Series: Discussion Papers

 
Quarterly Report on the Euro Area (QREA), Vol.15, No.2 (2016)

Quarterly Report on the Euro Area (QREA), Vol.15, No.2 (2016)

July 2016

Volume 15 N. 2 (2016) of the QREA looks at the role of cross-border risk sharing, both through financial and labour market incomes generated across borders and through cross-border fiscal transfers, in mitigating asymmetric shocks, and compares the situation in the euro area to that of the United States. Other sections examine the mechanisms through which financial markets effect the real economy and confidence spillovers in the euro area.

Topics: Economic policy coordination ; Economic indicators ; Financial markets ; The euro

 
Macroeconomic Relevance of Insolvency Frameworks in a High-debt Context: An EU Perspective

Macroeconomic Relevance of Insolvency Frameworks in a High-debt Context: An EU Perspective

June 2016

A look at insolvency frameworks in the EU and their macroeconomic relevance for dealing with high levels of debt and non-performing loans.

Topics: Structural policies, growth and development ; Financial markets

Series: Discussion Papers

 
Quarterly Report on the Euro Area (QREA), Vol.14, No.4 (2015)

Quarterly Report on the Euro Area (QREA), Vol.14, No.4 (2015)

January 2016

This edition of the QREA reviews the issue of shocks and adjustment in the light of recent crises. It analyses the functioning of a key internal adjustment process in EMU, the "relative price mechanism", as well as the "real interest rate mechanism". It also reviews the different implications of high levels of indebtedness.

Topics: Economic policy coordination; Structural policies, growth and development; EU Member State economies; Labour markets;

 
The Impact of Rapid Credit Growth on Slovakia’s Housing Market

The Impact of Rapid Credit Growth on Slovakia’s Housing Market

December 2015

This paper looks at the macroeconomic impact of the growth in lending for home purchases in Slovakia and suggests policies that could make the housing market more resilient.

Topics: Structural policies, growth and development, EU Member State economies, Public finances, Financial markets

Series: Economic Briefs

 
Using financial variables to estimate the Irish output gap: do they make a difference?

Using financial variables to estimate the Irish output gap: do they make a difference?

December 2015

Standard potential output estimates during Ireland’s housing boom failed to detect the build-up of imbalances and risks to the country’s public finances. This paper looks at an alternative methodology, including financial variables such as property prices and bank credit, which would have supported a more cautious assessment at the time.

Topics: Public finances ; EU Member State economies ; Financial markets

Series: Economic Briefs

 
Interlinkages between Household and Corporate Debt in Advanced Economies

Interlinkages between Household and Corporate Debt in Advanced Economies

October 2015

This paper explores the connections between household and corporate deleveraging.

Topics: EU Member State economies ; Financial markets ; International Economic and non-EU economies

Series: Discussion Paper

 
Small Firms and Domestic Bank Dependence in Europe’s Great Recession

Small Firms and Domestic Bank Dependence in Europe’s Great Recession

September 2015

Author(s): Mathias Hoffmann, Bent E. Sorensen

Mathias Hoffmann (University of Zurich & CESifo) and Bent E. Sørensen (University of Houston & CEPR) look at the relationship between the dependency of small firms on domestic banks and their vulnerability to global banking sector shocks.

This Discussion Paper was prepared under DG ECFIN’s 2014-2015 Fellowship Initiative “Growth, integration and structural convergence revisited”.

Topics: Economic policy coordination

Series: Discussion Papers

 
Monetary Policy, Bank Bailouts and the Sovereign-Bank Risk Nexus in the Euro Area

Monetary Policy, Bank Bailouts and the Sovereign-Bank Risk Nexus in the Euro Area

September 2015

Author(s): Marcel Fratzscher, Malte Rieth

Marcel Fratzscher (DIW Berlin, Humboldt-University Berlin and CEPR) and Malte Rieth (DIW Berlin) analyse the empirical relationship between bank risk and sovereign credit risk in the euro area. This Discussion Paper was prepared under DG ECFIN’s 2014-2015 Fellowship Initiative “Growth, integration and structural convergence revisited”.

Topics: The euro, Monetary policy, Financial markets

Series: Discussion Papers

 
An event-study analysis of ECB balance sheet policies since October 2008

An event-study analysis of ECB balance sheet policies since October 2008

July 2015

Author(s): Lucian Briciu, Giulio Lisi

Since the financial and economic crisis, many leading central banks have had to turn to unconventional monetary policies. This paper analyses the immediate impacts on financial conditions of some of the balance sheet policies used by the European Central Bank between October 2008 and January 2015, including its Securities Markets Programme and its Expanded Asset Purchase Programme.

Topics: Monetary policy; Financial markets; The euro

Series: Economic Briefs

 
The Economic Impact of EU Guarantees on Credit to SMEs Evidence from CESEE Countries

The Economic Impact of EU Guarantees on Credit to SMEs Evidence from CESEE Countries

July 2015

Author(s): Pierfederico Asdrubali, Simone Signore

This paper studies the economic effects of an EU credit guarantee scheme for SMEs in Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European countries between 2005 and 2012.

Topics: Financing investment ; Financial markets

Series: Discussion Papers

 

European Economic Forecast - Autumn 2012

November 2012

The short-term outlook for the EU economy remains fragile, but a gradual return to GDP growth is projected for 2013, with further strengthening in 2014. On an annual basis, GDP is set to contract by 0.3% in the EU and 0.4% in the euro area in 2012. GDP growth for 2013 is projected at 0.4% in the EU and 0.1% in the euro area. Unemployment in the EU is expected to remain very high. The large internal and external imbalances that built up in the pre-crisis years are being reduced, but this process continues to weigh on domestic demand in some countries, and economic activity diverges significantly across Member States. At the same time, competitiveness lost in the first decade of EMU in some Member States is being gradually restored, so that export growth is projected to increase progressively as global trade starts reaccelerating. Further progress in consolidating public finances is underpinning this rebalancing process.

 

European Economic Forecast - Spring 2012

May 2012

The EU economy is currently in a mild recession. But a gradual recovery is in sight.

 

European Economic Forecast - Autumn 2011

November 2011

The European Commission publishes comprehensive macroeconomic forecasts twice-yearly in the spring and autumn. In this economic forecast published on 10 November 2011, the European Commission presents its assessment of the economic prospects for the EU and the euro area at the aggregate level. It also analyses developments in all individual Member States, as well as Candidate Countries and the economies of the US, Japan, China, Russia and the EFTA. A special chapter is dedicated to developments in EU labour markets.

Since the last fully-fledged forecast in May 2011, the outlook for the EU and the euro area has deteriorated. The protracted sovereign-debt crisis has taken its toll on confidence affecting investment and consumption. A worsening external economic environment has stalled exports, and the necessary fiscal consolidation is simultaneously restraining domestic demand.

These trends are expected to hold for several quar

 

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