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21/02/2005 - 22/02/2005 : Workshop : Understanding trends in disability among elderly populations and the implications of demographic and non- demographic factors for future health and long-term care costs

organised by : The European Commission, the Working Group on Ageing, and the OECD: 21 - 22 February 2005

Monday, 21 February 2005


Chairman Peter SCHERER, Head of Health Division, OECD Secretariat

Introduction. Henri Bogaert and Peter Scherer


Session 1. What do we know about health and disability trends amongst elderly populations

  • Impact of population ageing on health and long-term care expenditure: Assessing the effect of morbidity, disability and other cost drivers enpdf(82 kB) (pdf file 200 kb)
    Gaetan Lafortune, Health Division, OECD Secretariat
  • Interpreting international evidence on the evolution of morbidity and disability prevalence over time and perspectives for extended healthy life expectancy enpdf(86 kB) (pdf file 200 kb)
    Jean-Marie Robine, University of Montpellier and REVES (Network on Health Expectancy), France
  • Assessing the impact of changes in survey methodologies on disability trends over time: The case of Australia enpdf(265 kB) (pdf file 200 kb)
    Xingyan Wen, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare
  • Compression of disability for Older Americans, 1992-2002 enpdf(91 kB) (pdf file 200 kb)
    James Lubitz, National Center for Health Statistics, United States
  • Beyond Social Astronomy: From Understanding to Interventions
    Richard Suzman, National Institute on Ageing, National Institutes of Health, United States

Session 2. What do we know about the links between morbidity/disability status and health and long-term care use and expenditure

  • Medicare Cost Effects of recent U.S. Disability Trends in the Elderly: Future Implications enpdf(55 kB) (pdf file 200 kb)
    Vicki Lamb, Duke University, United States
  • Health problems among the elderly in Europe: first results of the SHARE project enpdf(644 kB) (pdf file 200 kb)
    Johan Mackenbach, University Medical Center Rotterdam, the Netherlands
  • Disability and Informal Support, Prospects for Canada
    Michael Wolfson, Statistics Canada, Canada enpdf(102 kB) (pdf file 100 kb)
  • The need to improve the comparability of long-term care expenditure data: Recent estimates from a selection of OECD countries and follow-up work enpdf(69 kB) (pdf file 200 kb)
    Manfred Huber, Health Division, OECD Secretariat

Conclusion of day 1: Summary and next steps to improve the validity of data on morbidity/disability among the elderly and links with health and long-term care expenditure



Tuesday 22 February 2005

Chairman Henri BOGAERT
Chairman of the Ageing Working Group and Director of Bureau Fédéral du Plan, Belgique


Session 3. Projecting the impact of demographic and non-demographic factors on future health and long-term care costs: possible frameworks, methodologies and data requirements

  • Disentangling demographic and non-demographic drivers of health care spending: a possible methodology and data requirements enpdf(161 kB) (pdf file 200 kb)
    Simen Bjornerud and Joaquim Oliveira Martins, Economics Department, OECD Secretariat
  • Health-based predictive models: How to extrapolate existing medical information into the projections of future health care expenditure? enpdf(149 kB) (pdf file 200 kb)
    Alberto Holly, Institute of Health Economics and Management at the University of Lausanne, Switzerland
  • Using new data on elderly people to project future trends in health care use and expenditure. Preliminary evidence from the EU research project SHARE enpdf(484 kB) (pdf file 200 kb)
    Axel Börsch-Supan, Mannheim Research Institute for the Economics of Ageing, Germany
  • Quantifying factors behind health and long-term care expenditure: evidence from the EU research project AGIR enpdf(100 kB) (pdf file 200 kb)
    Ed Westerhout, The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis
  • Report on a research project on Ageing, Health and Retirement (AGIR) and Ageing, Health Status and Determinants of Health Expenditure (AHEAD) enpdf(223 kB) (pdf file 200 kb)
    Jørgen Mortensen, Centre for European Policy Studies, Belgium


Session 4. Possible projection methodologies to be used at EU level

  • Projections of expenditure on health care and long-term care at EU level enpdf(88 kB) (pdf file 200 kb)
    Bartosz Przywara and Declan Costello, DG ECFIN, European Commission
  • Making projections of public Long-Term Care Expenditure for European countries: a proposed methodology and data requirements enpdf(109 kB) (pdf file 200 kb)
    Adelina Comas Herrera, London School of Economics and Political Science
  • Demographic influence on health care and long-term care demand – Different methods? enpdf(420 kB) (pdf file 200 kb)
    Ilija Batljan, Department of Social Work, Stockholm University, Sweden and Mårten Lagergren, Stockholm Center of Gerontology, Sweden
  • Conclusion of Day 2: Summary and next steps on possible methodologies and data requirements to improve budgetary implications of health and long-term care

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