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United Kingdom

This country page is a centralised resource for the analytical work on the economy of the United Kingdom performed by DG ECFIN. It provides links to the most important pages and documents, such as the European Commission's regular economic forecasts and the country’s compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact.

  • Economic forecasts for the United Kingdom

    The Commission publishes macroeconomic forecasts for the EU and the Member States twice a year, in the spring (May) and in the autumn (November). These forecasts are produced by the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN) and include a chapter on the United Kingdom. DG ECFIN also produces more limited "interim forecasts" in February and September, wich contain one-year projections of GDP growth and consumer price inflation for the euro area, the EU and seven large Members States, including the United Kingdom.

  • Monitoring the budgetary situation in the United Kingdom

    Assessments of the UK’s convergence programme

    As required by the Stability and Growth Pact, at the end of each year the United Kingdom submits an update of the medium-term fiscal strategy it first presented in 1998. Euro area Member States submit stability programmes while countries outside the euro area submit convergence programmes. Based on an assessment by the Commission prepared by DG ECFIN, the Council adopts an opinion on each programme. All programmes of the United Kingdom, the related Commission assessments and Council opinions, as well as the working documents containing expanded assessments prepared by DG ECFIN, can be accessed here.

    The UK and the excessive deficit procedure

    The UK is currently subject to the excessive deficit procedure (EDP) as specified in the Stability and Growth Pact. Based on the country’s budgetary performance against the Treaty reference values of 3% of GDP for the general government deficit and 60% of GDP for the government debt, the Council decided in July 2008 that the UK was in excessive deficit and set the deadline of financial year 2013/2014 to correct the situation. All documents related to the EDP for the UK can be found here.


    Public finance report

    The Commission’s annual public finance report prepared by DG ECFIN – entitled "Public Finances in EMU" – includes a chapter on the United Kingdom.


  • The United Kingdom and the euro

    The United Kingdom has not adopted the euro as its currency. It has a special status allowing it to decide when (and if) it will join the euro area. For this reason, the Commission does not cover the United Kingdom in its convergence reports.

  • The United Kingdom and economic policy coordination in the EU

    As part of the Lisbon Strategy for growth and jobs, the United Kingdom presented its 3-year national reform programme (NRP) in 2005 and reports each autumn on its implementation. The Commission analyses all Member States’ reports in its Annual Progress Report (APR) and proposes, as appropriate, country-specific recommendations. All available reports can be accessed here (NB this Europa subsite is not maintained under the responsibility of the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs).

  • Selected topics

    The Country Focus series produced by DG ECFIN provides a concise analysis, set within the broader economic and policy debate, of a topical economic issue concerning one or more Member State(s). Country Focus issues on the United Kingdom are listed below, the most recent first.

    UK public finances and oil prices: tax bonanza from black gold? (September 2009)

    The UK Housing Market: Anatomy of a house price boom (October 2008)

    Regulation in the UK: is it getting too heavy? (June 2006)

    UK household consumption (Part 2): buoyed by houses prices (December 2004)

    UK household consumption (Part 1): built on a debt mountain? (December 2004)

    What next for productivity in the UK? (May 2004)

    On 7 May 2008, the Commission adopted a Communication on "EMU@10: successes and challenges after 10 years of Economic and Monetary Union" (it was on 1 May 1998 that European Union leaders decided to launch the euro on 1 January 1999). The Communication, which takes stock of what has been achieved over the past ten years and makes proposals on the way forward, builds on an in-depth study by DG ECFIN. Both documents can be found on DG ECFIN’s EMU@10 website