Economic forecasts
DG ECFIN produces various economic forecasts on behalf of the Commission which differ in terms of their coverage and time horizon.
- The euro
- EU economic situation
- Stability and Growth Pact
- Analysing structural reforms and EU policies
- International economic issues
- Financial operations and instruments in support of EU policies
- Publications
- Economic databases and indicators
- Procurement and grants
- Events
- Economic research
- Evaluation
Related pages
Key indicators for the euro area
Related publications
Index of economic and interim forecasts
EU economic situation
Main economic forecasts
DG ECFIN produces short-term macroeconomic forecasts twice a year, in the spring and autumn. These forecasts concentrate on the Member States, the euro area and the EU, but also include outlooks for candidate countries as well as some non-EU countries.
Each forecast has at least a two-year time horizon (with an additional year added each autumn) covering the current year and the next. The forecasting process considers a total of 180 variables and is the result of several iterative rounds.
The forecasts are not based on a centralised econometric model. Instead, they result from analyses made by the DG ECFIN country desks, each of which uses statistical methods to varying degrees. The forecasts are checked for consistency, in particular as regards trade flows. The EU and euro-area variables are not a direct forecast, but are obtained by aggregating the individual Member State forecasts.
In between the fully-fledged spring and autumn forecasts, interim forecasts are produced in which an update of real GDP growth and inflation is estimated for the seven largest Member States and for the current year only. The interim forecasts are largely prepared using indicator-based models.
Interim forecasts
With a view to updating the macro-economic forecasts, the European Commission produces so-called interim forecasts in between the spring and autumn forecasts, which have the following main characteristics:
• They contain one-year projections of GDP growth and consumer price inflation for the euro area and the EU.
• They also take into account most recent information on external factors and on all Member States
• They contain, based mainly on model forecasts, an update of the growth and inflation outlook for the larger Member States.
• Euro area and EU wide data are obtained by aggregating the data for the large Member States and correcting for the growth differential between the larger and smaller Member States
>> Index of economic and interim forecasts