This country page is a centralised resource for the analytical work on the economy of Bulgaria performed by DG ECFIN. It provides links to the most important pages and documents, such as the European Commission's regular economic forecasts and the country’s compliance with the Stability and Growth Pact.
The Commission publishes macroeconomic forecasts for the EU and the Member States twice a year, in the spring (May) and in the autumn (November). These forecasts are produced by the Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN) and include a chapter on Bulgaria.
DG ECFIN also produces more limited "interim forecasts" in February and September, which contain one-year projections of GDP growth and consumer price inflation for the euro area, the EU and seven large Member States.
>> Macroeconomic forecasts and interim forecasts
2.1. Assessments of Bulgaria’s convergence programme
As required by the Stability and Growth Pact, at the end of each year Bulgaria submits an update of the medium-term fiscal strategy it first presented in January 2007. Euro area Member states submit stability programmes while countries outside the euro area submit convergence programmes. Based on an assessment by the Commission prepared by DG ECFIN, the Council adopts an opinion on each programme.
2.2. The EU Excessive deficit procedure and Bulgaria
Currently, Bulgaria is subject to an excessive deficit procedure.
>> Statement by President Barroso following his meeting with Boyko Borissov, Prime Minister of Bulgaria
>> Excessive Deficit Procedure recommendations on Bulgaria, Germany and Hungary: Frequently asked questions
>> Excessive deficit procedure for Bulgaria
2.3. The Public finance report and Bulgaria
The Commission’s annual public finance report prepared by DG ECFIN – entitled " Public Finances in EMU" – includes comments on Bulgaria.
Bulgaria has not yet adopted the euro as its currency. It will join the euro area as soon as it fulfils the necessary conditions as defined in the 'Maastricht' convergence criteria. Progress toward meeting these criteria is assessed by the Commission and the European Central Bank in regular convergence reports.
As part of the Europe 2020 strategy for a smart, sustainable and inclusive EU economy, Bulgaria reports each spring on the implementation of its national reform programme (NRP).
5.1. The EU and Bulgaria
>> Enlargement, two years after: an economic evaluation (European Economy 5/2006)
>> EMU@10: successes and challenges after 10 years of Economic and Monetary Union (European Economy 2/2008)
5.2. Country focus on Bulgaria
The Country Focus series produced by DG ECFIN provides a concise analysis, set within the broader economic and policy debate, of a topical economic issue concerning one or more Member State(s). Country Focus issues on Bulgaria are listed below, the most recent first.
>> Credit growth in Bulgaria - what are the policy challenges? (September 2006)