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Autumn 2015 forecast: Moderate recovery despite challenges
According to the autumn economic forecast announced on 5 November, the economic recovery in the euro area and the EU, now in its third year, is expected to continue at a modest pace next year despite more challenging conditions in the global economy. Euro area real GDP is forecast to grow by 1.6% in 2015, and rise to 1.8% in 2016 and 1.9% in 2017, while for the EU as a whole, real GDP is expected to rise from 1.9% this year to 2.0% in 2016 and 2.1% in 2017. Declining oil prices, accommodative monetary policy and a relatively weak external value of the euro have supported an economic recovery this year that has been resilient and broad-based across Member States. The impact of the positive factors is fading, however, while new challenges are appearing, such as the slowdown in emerging market economies and global trade, and persisting geopolitical tensions. Backed by other factors, such as higher real disposable incomes thanks to an improved employment situation, easier credit conditions, progress in financial deleveraging and higher investment, the pace of growth is expected to resist the challenges in 2016 and 2017. In some countries, the positive impact of structural reforms will also contribute to supporting growth.
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The European economy remains on recovery course
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Pierre Moscovici,
Commissioner for Economic and Financial Affairs, Taxation and Customs
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Commission welcomes EU Member States’ commitment to boost climate assistance for developing countries
Ahead of the 21st conference of the parties to the UN framework convention on climate change, EU finance ministers agreed on 10 November to scale up public funding for climate financing in the years ahead. The EU and its Member States provided EUR 14.5 billion in funding in 2014 to help the poorest and most vulnerable countries reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the consequences of climate change. This is a significant increase compared with 2013 and shows Europe's determination to contribute its fair share to the USD 100 billion goal set in 2009 for annual finance flows from developed to developing countries by 2020. A recent report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the Climate Policy Initiative, shows that developed countries mobilised a total of USD 62 billion of climate finance in 2014, and USD 52 billion in 2013. The Commission on 10 November welcomed the Member States' commitment to scaling up climate financing, and to continuing to provide it to the poorest, most vulnerable and most in need after 2020, when a new global climate agreement is due to enter into force. The EU and its Member States are the biggest donors to climate finance. In the period 2014-2020, at least 20% of the EU budget, for example, will be spent on climate action.
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Eurobarometer: Rising overall support for the single currency in the euro area
The latest Eurobarometer survey, which was released on 6 November, shows that overall support for the euro has further risen in euro area Member States and that a clear majority of citizens support the idea of economic reforms. A majority of 61% of respondents across the euro area said that they thought the euro was good for their own country. This is the highest level of support since the introduction of the survey in 2002, and an increase of four percentage points since last year. Support was highest in Luxembourg (79%), followed by Ireland (75%), which successfully completed an EU-IMF economic adjustment programme in December 2013. Appreciation for the euro has also risen in all the other former or current economic adjustment programme countries. A strengthened majority of 71% of respondents across the euro area also sees the euro as good for the EU as a whole, and a majority of respondents in every country agrees, although important differences persist among the 19 countries. A majority (78%) of euro area citizens continue to support economic reforms.
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Real Economy episode shows how multi-level governance is breathing new life into the European economy
The latest episode of “Real Economy” explores how partnership and collaboration can breathe new life into the European economy. The basic idea is that partnership at the EU and national levels should trickle down to collaboration with local and city governments, civil society and businesses. The show explains how countries consult with these actors to create Partnership Agreements (PA) on what is needed nationally, with the European Commission adding its own ideas. These PAs become legal contracts, and are in turn transformed into Operational Programmes. Europe’s Commissioner for Regional Policy, Corina Cretu, also explains how partnership can lead to tangible economic results, and the episode looks at how Liverpool is trying collaboration to regain some of its past glory. The EU’s Urbact programme – which enables cities to share and improve urban policies – is another example of how collaboration yields benefits. Real Economy aims to bring the complexities of economic matters in the EU closer to Euronews’ daily audience of 6.5 million viewers. Besides watching it on TV, viewers can also follow it online - live or on demand.
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GDP up by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU
Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.3% in the euro area and by 0.4% in the EU during the third quarter of 2015, compared with the previous quarter, according to flash estimates published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the EU. In the second quarter of 2015, GDP grew by 0.4% in both areas. Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 1.6% in the euro area and by 1.9% in the EU in the third quarter of 2015, after rising by 1.5% and 1.9% respectively in the previous quarter.
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On Eurobarometer survey results
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The latest Eurobarometer survey carried out in the euro area shows that euro area citizens' overall support for the euro has risen, with 61% of respondents confirming that they see the single currency as good for their own country. This marks the highest level of support since the Commission started the surveys in 2002.
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Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs
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