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Related pages
Interim economic forecasts
Quarterly report on the euro area
Related publications
Economic Paper 219
See also
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Euro-area GDP growth projection
Archived. DG ECFIN has decided to discontinue the publication of the euro-area GDP growth projections from November 2007.
2007 release calendar
| Date | Time 11h00 | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 January |
 (pdf file 20 kb) |
|
| 13 February |
(pdf file 20 kb) |
|
| 6 March |
(pdf file 24 kb) |
|
| 12 April |
(pdf file 135 kb) |
|
| 15 May |
(pdf file 135 kb) |
|
| 1 June |
(pdf file 24 kb) |
|
| 12 July |
(pdf file 132 kb) |
|
| 14 August |
(pdf file 20 kb) |
|
| 4 September |
(pdf file 27 kb) |
|
| 11 October |
(pdf file 133 kb) |
|
| 14 November | ||
| 30 November |
Description of the model
DG ECFIN's GDP growth projection is calculated from a dynamic factor model. It distils the relevant factors driving the euro-area business cycle from around 2000 time series for the euro-area countries.
The model delivers technical projections for the present quarter and the two quarters ahead. It should be recalled that statistical models cannot include all the elements that affect short-term economic developments, e.g. institutional and structural changes in economies. Thus, the results are presented as ranges reflecting the unavoidable uncertainty surrounding such projections.
Factor models provide a means of summarising the information contained in large datasets by a small number of factors.
The approach assumes macroeconomic time series have two components:
The common component is relevant for forecasting purposes. Various estimation procedures have been developed to extract the common factors from the underlying time series data. The time series used in the current model were selected on the basis of economic judgement and are assumed to contain information about the current and/or future economic situation in the euro area.
The model is described in detail in Economic Paper 219.