Climate Action | Adaptation to climate change

High temperatures

There is clear evidence that the average temperature increases recorded over the last century are highly likely to continue – and accelerate – in the future. Global warming will have serious consequences on human, plant and animal health, as well as many other sectors of society.

Global temperatures tend to fluctuate over time. However, the earth has experienced temperature increases much beyond these normal fluctuations during the past century. In 2008, the global average was 0.7 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels (the late 1800s). However, nine of the last 12 years(1) (1998-2009) were among the warmest ever recorded in Europe, giving strong evidence that the rate of global warming is speeding up.

Global average temperatures rose at an average of 0.1 degrees Celsius per decade over the past 100 years. In the past decade, however, this has risen to 0.16 degrees Celsius per decade and computer simulation models predict that the rate will increase even further in the coming years.

The latest assessment report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – the international body that compiles the latest scientific knowledge on climate change – estimates that by the end of the 21st century, temperatures will be anywhere from 1.1 degrees (in the best case) to 6.4 degrees Celsius (the worst case) hotter than pre-industrial levels. Experts predict that any rise above 2 degrees will bring the potential for catastrophic consequences for many human activities.

The impacts

Increasing temperatures cause oceans to expand, contributing to sea level rises.(2) The global average sea level rose steadily in the 20th century at a rate of about 1.7mm per year. However, satellite observations show that this rise increased to around 3mm per year from 1993 onwards and predictions are that sea levels will rise by 18-59cm by the end of the century. Even a small rise can have surprisingly serious impacts, increasing the risk of coastal flooding, erosion and saltwater intrusion into river basins.

• Read more about sea level rises and climate change adaptation.

Higher temperatures are leading to glaciers retreating and the loss of ice cover in Polar Regions and in mountainous regions. These contribute to sea level rise; increase the risk of floods and landslides; reduce the availability of freshwater and threaten many animal and plant species.

Meanwhile, warmer temperatures will increase desertification in southern parts of Europe, leading to a greater risk of droughts.

• Read more about droughts and climate change adaptation.

These changes will have a substantial impact on sectors such as agriculture, tourism and energy production. Individuals, especially vulnerable sectors of the population, such as the elderly and infants will be affected the most.

European perspective

Global warming is projected to be have the most significant impacts in Eastern Europe, Scandinavia and the Arctic in the wintertime, and in south-western and Mediterranean Europe in the summertime.

According to the PESETA study, high-temperature extremes such as hot days and nights and heat waves will become more frequent, while low-temperature extremes (for example, cold spells, frosty days) will become less frequent in Europe. This trend will become more frequent, intense and longer during this century. This could lead to an increase in the cases of temperature-related mortality. However, milder winter temperatures will also reduce winter deaths.

It is likely that events such as the heatwave that swept Europe in 2003 will become more common in the future. It lasted from June to August, and is thought to have been responsible for more than 35,000 deaths. In France, which was the worst hit, the majority of those affected were the elderly who had no immediate relatives to look after them.

The latest IPCC assessment report outlines the main changes expected from higher temperatures:

(1) European Environment Agency, Global and European temperature assessments, June 2010
(2) IPCC 4th Assessment Report, summary for policy makers, p5