Floods

Climate change will increase the chances of flooding in some regions of Europe. Flood damage is expected to rise across much of western, central and eastern Europe, as well as in Italy and northern parts of Spain. Meanwhile, some north-eastern parts will become less flood-prone.

Water and the climate are intricately linked in the hydrological cycle, meaning that any alteration in the climate system inevitably results in changes in water levels.

It is very difficult to predict extreme weather events with accuracy. However, the latest assessments predict that climate change is likely to increase the occurrence and frequency of flooding across Europe in the coming years. Heavy rainstorms will become more common and more intense due to warmer temperatures as there will be increased moisture available for condensation in the air. (1)

Between 1998 and 2004, Europe suffered over 100 major floods, including catastrophic flooding along the Danube and Elbe rivers in the summer of 2002 and severe floods in many areas in 2005. Since 1998, floods in Europe have caused some 700 deaths, the displacement of about half a million people and at least €25 billion in economic losses (2).

European rivers carried their full capacity twice as often between 1981 and 2000 than between 1961 and 1980 (3).

However, the frequency and severity of melted snow and ice-jam floods in central Europe have decreased over recent decades because of warmer winters.

EU response to floods

Individual EU Member States are taking preventive action to limit flood risks. Meanwhile, overall coherence at the European level brings furthers benefits to industries, environments and populations affected by floods.

In the coming decades, it is likely we will see a higher flood risk in many parts of Europe and greater economic damage when floods do occur. As a result, the EU adopted a directive on the assessment and management of flood risks PDF file in 2007. This was the first EU-level legislation specifically mentioning adaptation to climate change as a priority.

Under the legislation, all Member States must assess river basins and coastal areas that are at risk of flooding. The assessments – to be completed by 2011 – should estimate the likely extent of flooding and the resources and people that are at risk. After this, countries should prepare flood-risk maps by 2013 and risk-management plans by 2015.

Relevant steps include awareness-raising efforts, improvements in water efficiency and encouraging conservation steps to reduce water stress, directing spatial planning and watershed management to enhance retention. Other important aspects are effective monitoring and warning systems.

New flood-control infrastructures will have to be planned if they are to cope with the projected changes in extreme precipitation and river flows. Flood-management policies should shift from defensive actions towards pro active risk-management strategies and enhancing the ability of societies to cope with floods.

(1) EEA report: Impacts of Europe's changing climate — 2008 indicator-based assessment, p96 PDF file
(2) http://ec.europa.eu/environment/water/flood_risk/index.htm
(3) EEA report: Impacts of Europe's changing climate — 2008 indicator-based assessment, p96 PDF file