Extracts from the press conference by Pierre Moscovici on the 2015 Autumn Economic Forecast
Type: Press conference - summary
Brussels - EC/Berlaymont
on 5 November 2015, Pierre Moscovici, Member of the EC in charge of Economic and Financial Affairs, Taxation and Customs, gave a press conference on the 2015 Autumn Economic Forecast.
The economic recovery in the euro area and the European Union as a whole is now in its third year. It should continue at a modest pace next year despite more challenging conditions in the global economy.
The impact of the positive factors is fading, while new challenges are appearing, such as the slowdown in emerging market economies and global trade, and persisting geopolitical tensions. Backed by other factors, such as better employment performance supporting real disposable income, easier credit conditions, progress in financial deleveraging and higher investment, the pace of growth is expected to resist the challenges in 2016 and 2017. In some countries, the positive impact of structural reforms will also contribute to supporting growth further.
Overall, euro area real GDP is forecast to grow by 1.6% in 2015, rising to 1.8% in 2016 and 1.9% in 2017. For the EU as a whole, real GDP is expected to rise from 1.9% this year to 2.0% in 2016 and 2.1% in 2017.
Only the original language version is authentic and it prevails in the event of its differing from the translated versions.
||EU flag waving
||Arrival of Pierre Moscovici, Member of the EC in charge of Economic and Financial Affairs, Taxation and Customs
||SOUNDBITE by Pierre Moscovici (in FRENCH) saying that the economic recovery is with us and will continue in the 2016 and 2017 even if the drivers for this recovery are slightly different from those of the previous forecast. Secondly we are seeing an improvement of the budgetary situation in the Member States and that also includes debt as of 2016. Finally and this is something new vis-à-vis the recommendation for the Eurozone which we will adopt mid-November, we will analyse the intra-Eurozone convergence which is improving but it is still not yet sufficient.
||Cutaway of the audience
||SOUNDBITE by Pierre Moscovici (in ENGLISH): Investment growth though strengthening remains weak when compared to past recoveries as you can see on this graph. Subdued demand expectations, high uncertainty and the persistent need to reduce debt in some Member States are still weighing on investment decisions. Construction investment should recover thanks to the rise in the household real disposable income as well as easier access to financing.
||Cutaway of cameramen
||SOUNDBITE by Pierre Moscovici (in ENGLISH): Looking at the Autumn Forecast the picture so far is mixed. Potential growth parts are recovering but only very slowly. Labour market conditions are improving but disparities remain high. The debt-to-GDP ratio has peaked in 2014 in the euro area but in some Member States it is still expected to increase next year. Among other I will mention Greece, France, Spain and Belgium.
||Cutaway of the audience
||SOUNDBITE by Pierre Moscovici (in ENGLISH): The European economy remains in a recovery course. Unemployment will continue to fall while remaining high in many countries. The recovery is still supported by well-known tailwinds including low whole prices which are set to persist into 2016. Other positive factors are increasingly taking over such as the impact of structural reforms and this is quiet reassuring.
||Departure of Pierre Moscovici