Extracts from the press conference by Olli Rehn, the autumn economic forecasts for 2013-2015

Type: Summary of press conference   Référence: I083171   Durée: 00:08:49  Lieu: Brussels - EC/Berlaymont
On 5 November 2013, Olli Rehn, Vice-President of the EC in charge of Economic and Monetary Affairs and the Euro, gave a press conference on the autumn economic forecasts for 2013-2015. Growth in the second half of 2013 was expected at 0.5 % compared to the same period in 2012 in the EU. On an annual basis, real GDP growth this year was estimated at 0.0 % in the EU and -0.4 % in the euro area. Looking ahead, economic growth was forecast to gradually gather pace over the forecast horizon, to 1.4 % in the EU and 1.1 % the euro area in 2014, reaching 1.9 % and 1.7 % in 2015, respectively. Internal and external adjustment in Europe was continuing, underpinned in many cases by the significant structural reforms and fiscal consolidation implemented in recent years. This has improved the conditions for domestic demand to gradually become the main engine of growth in Europe. However, against the background of a weakened outlook for emerging market economies, the return to solid growth would be a gradual process.

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HEURE DESCRIPTION DUREE
00:00:00 Title 00:00:05
00:00:05 Exterior view of the Berlaymont building in Brussels 00:00:06
00:00:11 Arrival of Olli Rehn, Vice-President of the EC in charge of Economic and Monetary Affairs and the Euro, at the press conference 00:00:06
00:00:17 Soundbite by Olli Rehn (in ENGLISH): Our Autumn Forecast shows three broad tendencies.First, in Europe overall, growth turned positive in the second quarter of this year and confidence has been rising. Domestic demand is gaining strength, including investment. However, the on-going necessary adjustment process will continue to weigh on growth for some time. 00:00:36
00:00:53 Cutaway of the audience 00:00:04
00:00:56 Soundbite by Olli Rehn (in ENGLISH): Second, for those countries that recorded current account deficits over the last decade, net exports are now contributing more strongly to growth. At the same time, domestic demand is gradually firming in the countries with a current account surplus.Third, in the global economy, while the emerging market economies have grown fast in recent years, their growth is now expected to slow down, while advanced economies are becoming relatively stronger. 00:00:44
00:01:40 Cutaway of the audience 00:00:04
00:01:43 Soundbite by Olli Rehn (in ENGLISH): In 2014, economic activity is projected to expand by 1.4% in the EU as a whole and 1.1% in the euro area. We expect a further acceleration in 2015 to 1.9% in the EU and 1.7% in the euro area. As the needs of deleveraging subside, domestic demand is expected to strengthen slowly, thanks to resuming private consumption growth and rebounding investment. 00:00:44
00:02:27 Cutaway of a press release 00:00:04
00:02:27 Cutaway of a press release 00:00:04
00:02:31 Soundbite by Olli Rehn (in ENGLISH): After the significant progress in fiscal consolidation achieved over the past three years, its pace has been slowing down. To illustrate how far we have come, at the height of the crisis in 2011, there were only three Member States not in the Excessive Deficit Procedure. Today, there are twelve. 00:00:38
00:03:09 Cutaway of cameramen 00:00:04
00:03:12 Soundbite by Olli Rehn (in ENGLISH): Germany and Austria have subdued growth this year due to a slow beginning, but are accelerating quite solidly next year. Unemployment is low, and in 2014 and 2015 domestic demand is expected to be the main growth driver in both countries. 00:00:27
00:03:39 Cutaway of the audience 00:00:04
00:03:42 Soundbite by Olli Rehn (in ENGLISH): In France and Belgium, growth will remain weak this year, as investment has been falling, and domestic demand will only gradually lift the growth rate next year. In both countries, unemployment does unfortunately not fall much, also as growth in the labour force is not being absorbed to the labour market. 00:00:24
00:04:07 Cutaway of the audience 00:00:04
00:04:10 Soundbite by Olli Rehn (in ENGLISH): The Netherlands and Finland are expected to contract this year, though less than in 2012. Next year will bring a muted acceleration in economic activity. Domestic demand remains weak, in the Netherlands due to the adjustment in the housing market, and in Finland, due to the on-going structural change in the industrial sector. 00:00:30
00:04:41 Journalist taking notes 00:00:04
00:04:44 Soundbite by Olli Rehn (in ENGLISH): The economies of Italy and Spain will contract this year in annual terms. But for Spain, growth is expected to have returned in the third quarter, and for Italy this is expected in the fourth quarter. In both countries, large needs of adjustment still remain, which in Spain is visible in the unbearably high unemployment rate, though this seems to have been stabilising recently. In particular for Spain, exports have become the growth driver, and both countries have moved their current account into surplus. 00:00:47
00:05:31 Cutaway of the audience 00:00:03
00:05:35 Soundbite by Olli Rehn (in ENGLISH): Ireland is an early adjuster after the beginning of the financial crisis, and the country has been recording growth above the EU average since 2011 and is expected to continue so going forward. Unemployment has been declining at a steady pace and is expected to continue this encouraging trend. Ireland will exit its economic adjustment programme in December. 00:00:33
00:06:08 General view of the press conference 00:00:04
00:06:11 Soundbite by Olli Rehn (in ENGLISH): Portugal has returned to positive growth in the second quarter of this year, and like in Ireland, exports play an important role in this process. However, while growth is gradually picking up next year, it will only be with a lag until this is reflected in a high rate of employment. 00:00:23
00:06:34 Cutaway of a cameraman 00:00:03
00:06:38 Soundbite by Olli Rehn (in ENGLISH): The economy of Greece will still contract this year, but there has been a strong revival of tourism, with positive implications for growth. Led by exports, including tourism, and investment, growth is expected to return in 2014. This is predicated on the full implementation of the programme. 00:00:28
00:07:06 Cutaway of Olli Rehn 00:00:03
00:07:09 Soundbite by Olli Rehn (in ENGLISH): Then the dark green where growth is 3% or above in the forecast horizon: Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania - the Baltic states. Estonia, which adopted the euro two years ago, is forecast to grow above average with 3% next year and almost 4% in 2015 and unemployment is on a firmly declining trend in the country. 00:00:31
00:07:40 Cutaway of the audience 00:00:03
00:07:44 Soundbite by Olli Rehn (in ENGLISH): Latvia is recording very solid growth of 4% annually over the forecast horizon, with unemployment falling rapidly, after the rapid and difficult adjustment under the programme until 2012. I am very much looking forward to welcome Latvia as the 18th member of the euro area in January. 00:00:27
00:08:11 Cutaway of a photographer 00:00:04
00:08:15 Soundbite by Olli Rehn (in ENGLISH): We are seeing clear signs of an economic turnaround, but growth will pick up only gradually and will translate into jobs only with a lag. That's why we cannot yet declare victory, and we must not fall into the trap of complacency. Further decisive action to boost sustainable growth and job creation will continue to be necessary in Europe. 00:00:28
00:08:43 Departure of Olli Rehn 00:00:06
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