Extracts from the press conference by Olli Rehn on the Spring 2013/2014 economic forecasts

Type: Summary of press conference   Reference: I-077878   Duration: 10:03:57  Lieu:
End production: 03/05/2013   First transmission: 03/05/2013
On 3 May 2013, Olli Rehn, Vice-President of the EC in charge of Economic and Monetary Affairs and the Euro, presented during a press conference the Spring 2013/2014 economic forecasts. Following the recession that marked 2012, the EU economy is expected to stabilise in the first half of 2013. GDP growth is projected to turn positive gradually in the second half of the year before gaining some traction in 2014. As domestic demand is still constrained by a number of impediments that are typical of the aftermath of deep financial crises, external demand is set to be the main growth driver this year. The headwinds on private consumption and investment are expected to abate gradually, making way for a modest domestically sustained recovery next year. This forecast remains based on the assumption that continued policy implementation will prevent a renewed intensification of the sovereign-debt crisis. Annual GDP growth this year is now forecast at -0.1% in the EU and at -0.4% in the euro area. For 2014, economic activity is projected to expand by 1.4% in the EU and 1.2 % in the euro area.

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TIME DESCRIPTION DURATION
10:00:00 Title 00:00:05
10:00:05 Arrival of Olli Rehn, Vice-President of the EC in charge of Economic and Monetary Affairs and the Euro, at the press conference (2 shots) 00:00:05
10:00:10 Soundbite by Olli Rehn (in ENGLISH): We expect the EU economy to stabilise in the first half of this year. GDP growth is projected to turn positive in the second half of this year, and to gain momentum next year, in 2014. In the near term, increasing external demand is set to be the main growth driver, since domestic demand is still constrained in the aftermath of the deep financial crisis. Annual GDP this year is now forecast to contract by 0.1% in the EU and by 0.4% in the euro area. For 2014, we expect growth of 1.4% in the EU and 1.2% in the euro area. 00:00:58
10:01:08 Cutaway of press 00:00:04
10:01:13 Soundbite by Olli Rehn (in ENGLISH): Unemployment is forecast at 11.1% in the EU and at 12.2% in the euro area this year. At the same time, disparities across member states remain large. In Spain and Greece unemployment rates are at an unbearably high level of 27% this year, and expected to fall slightly next. At the same time, unemployment in Austria is 4.7% and in Germany 5.4%. With the economic recovery gaining ground, we expect a reversal of the trend and a modest rise in employment in 2014. 00:00:53
10:02:07 Cutaway of the audience 00:00:05
10:02:12 Soundbite by Olli Rehn (in ENGLISH): Overall, out of the 20 countries currently in EDP, we could thus have three evident candidates, Latvia, Romania and Lithuania, for abrogation or exit from the EDP. Moreover, two member states, Italy and Hungary, can do it, provided that they stay the course of fiscal sustainability. 00:00:28
10:02:40 Cutaway of photographers 00:00:04
10:02:45 Soundbite by Olli Rehn (in ENGLISH): Considering the economic situation, it may be reasonable to extend the deadline by two years and to correct the excessive deficit at the latest by 2015 in France. 00:00:16
10:03:02 Cutaway of press 00:00:05
10:03:07 Soundbite by Olli Rehn (in ENGLISH): Taking into account the additional measures of fiscal consolidation required to underpin the budgetary target for 2014. We lead to a down road revision of growth compare to our current forecast. We are working closely in partnership with the Spanish's government and we are currently assessing the stability and reform programs which seemed to be well in line with the expectations when I presented the macro economic imbalances. 00:00:50
10:03:57 Cutaway of the audience 00:00:06
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