Extracts from the press conference by Joaquín Almunia Member of the EC in charge of Economic and Monetary Affairs on the Autumn 2009 Economic Forecasts

Type: Summary of press conference   Reference: I-063764   Duration: 10:02:45  Lieu:
End production: 03/11/2009   First transmission: 03/11/2009
The EC published its Autumn economic forecasts for 2009-2011 for Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, employment and public finances. Joaquín Almunia, Member of the EC in charge of Economic and Monetary Affairs, presented figures for all 27 European Union countries, plus the EU and euro area aggregates. The Commission's autumn forecast projects that the EU economy will emerge from recession in the second half of this year, although for 2009 as a whole, GDP is still set to fall by some 4%. A gradual recovery is expected with GDP forecast to grow by ¾% in 2010 and around 1½% in 2011. The near-term rebound in activity follows from improvements in the external environment and financial conditions, as well as from the significant fiscal and monetary policy measures put in place. Further out, a number of factors are set to restrain private demand and thus, the strength of the recovery. In particular, labour-market conditions will remain weak, with the unemployment rate projected to reach 10¼% in the EU. The public deficit is also expected to rise, to 7½% of GDP in 2010, before falling back slightly in 2011 as the economy picks up and temporary measures gradually come to an end.

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TIME DESCRIPTION DURATION
10:00:00 Title 00:00:05
10:00:05 General view of the press conference room 00:00:06
10:00:11 Joaquín Almunia, Member of the EC in charge of Economic and Monetary Affairs, arriving at the press conference 00:00:06
10:00:17 SOUNDBITE (in ENGLISH) by Joaquín Almunia: For 2010, we expect a positive GDP growth: 0.7 percent, so clearly, better than our forecast in May. And for 2011, we expect 1.5 in the Euro area, 1.6 in the EU. So it is lightly above the present estimate of our potential growth. 00:00:24
10:00:41 Cutaway 00:00:05
10:00:46 SOUNDBITE (in ENGLISH) by Joaquín Almunia: Employment continues, will continue to decrease in 2010 and will only have positive figures in 2011, moderate positive figures in 2011. And the same can be said with the unemployment rate that will continue to increase above 10 percents, and almost until 11 percents in the Euro area. 00:00:26
10:01:12 Cutaway 00:00:06
10:01:18 SOUNDBITE (in ENGLISH) by Joaquín Almunia: The combination of sustained large deficit, lower potential growth and unfavourable democratic trends is a source of a major concern, regarding the long term sustainability of public finances. We recently published a communication and a report on this point. And this point, looking at this forecast, is confirmed as one of the major challenges that we will have to face over the medium term. Looking at the deficit and debt, not deficit, figures in this light, country by country, you can see how the deficit has increased, in the different member States. 00:00:50
10:02:08 Cutaway 00:00:06
10:02:14 SOUNDBITE (in ENGLISH) by Joaquín Almunia: All countries have been affected by the crisis, among the large member States, the contraction in 2009 is bigger in Germany, Italy and the UK and smaller in France and in the case of the 27, only Poland, this year, will escape form a negative figure of GDP evolution. 00:00:25
10:02:39 Cutaway 00:00:06
10:02:45 General view of journalists leaving the press conference room 00:00:07
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